Champions Day Soft Ground Horses E/W Lucky 15 – DS
Champions Day Soft Ground Horses
This is a massive weekend for owners, trainers and jockeys. Champions Day at Ascot is this Saturday and looking at the weather forecast, the ground is going to be testing. Our racing analyst Dave Stevos has found four e/w fancies that should appreciate testing conditions, check out his Champions Day Soft Ground horses below.
Champions Sprint Stakes – Vadream
We have already landed a nice bet with this filly this season. We were on for her emphatic Listed win at Doncaster in April, her last start on heavy ground. The last time she had soft ground, she lowered the colours of Breeders’ Cup Sprint contender, Live In The Dream.
Since that 0.5L win at Newmarket, there has been good in the ground description for her next four runs. Her trainer Charlie Fellowes left her off for a mid-summer break after a poor run in the July Cup and she reappeared in an Ascot G3 (6f gd) earlier this month.
Considering the ground was quick and that she may have needed the run, she ran a cracker behind Annaf, beat just 1.75L. It was a perfect prep for this and connections will be thrilled to see the weather forecast.
This filly has form figures of 1131 at 5/6f on heavy & soft ground and she has run crackers in this race the last two years on good to soft. If she is ever going to win a G1, this is going to be the race and at odds of 14/1, she is surely worth backing e/w.
Champions Day Soft Ground Tip: Vadream e/w @ 14/1
Champion Fillies And Mares Stakes – Term Of Endearment
Another filly that will be delighted to see the forecast rain is Term Of Endearment. Her trainer Henry De Bromhead is better known for his exploits at big NH meetings like Cheltenham but he is well able to train flat horses too. This 4yo daughter of Sea The Moon was supplemented for the race this week after an emphatic G3 win at Cork (12f sft/heavy) last time out.
She beat the 109 rated Library by over 4L and she was conceding 9lbs to the O’Brien filly. The third home, Dancing Tango, has since won a Listed race and the 106 rated Boogie Woogie was 11L behind her in fifth. She pricked her ears as she was crossing the line so she really seemed to enjoy the deplorable conditions.
Solid Yardstick
The form of her penultimate run is pretty decent too. She chased home Lafayette at Limerick (12f yld) in a Listed heat and she is an extremely solid yardstick (rated 111). The Meade horse scored in a G3 a couple of runs later, further boosting the form.
Term Of Endearment has form figures of 12312 on ground ranging from yielding to heavy. Her form figures on good or better read 564 so clearly, she is a horse that relishes the muck. De Bromhead has freshened her up since her last run and that that is a plus because she had a similar break before her last win.
A few of the market leaders have questions to answer if the ground comes up really soft so at 20/1, Term Of Endearment looks worth taking a chance on e/w.
Champions Day Soft Ground Tip: Term Of Endearment e/w @ 20/1
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Angel Bleu
It is hard to believe that a horse with career form figures of 111161 on soft/heavy ground is as big as 25/1 for this mile Group 1. Especially when you consider two of those wins came at the top table. Angel Bleu has been dismissed by the bookmakers but surely, he is capable of running big with the rain forecast.
His last start on soft came at Goodwood (8f) in August and he won that G2 by half a length. It was the first time he got properly soft ground since winning a pair of French G1s in October 2021. His Ascot form isn’t quite up to scratch but there has been good in the description for all five of his previous visits.
He ran ok on his last Ascot appearance, finishing fourth behind Master Of The Seas on good to soft. Since Goodwood, I’d imagine all roads have led to this race in the hope that the weather gods would play ball. It looks like they have and if he is in top form, Angel Bleu can run huge on ground he’ll love at odds of 25/1.
Champions Day Soft Ground Tip: Angel Bleu e/w @ 25/1
Balmoral Handicap – Graignes
I am going back to the well with another horse we have backed in the past and it was in this race. All the way back in 2020 I fancied Graignes to run well in this on soft ground and he didn’t disappoint. Sent off at 40/1, he ran a huge race for Nicola Currie off a mark of 104 to finish fourth, 4.75L behind the winner Njord.
Amazingly, that has been his only ever run at Ascot. To be fair, he had a spell in France with Eoghan O’Neill after that run for a season before moving back to George Baker in 2022. He returned to UK shores off a mark of 83 and he only ran three times that season.
He had the second wind op of his career before returning to action this season off 76. A solid return at Windsor (10f sft) was followed by a win off 75 at Kempton and he then followed up in fine style with another win at Sandown (10f gd).
Cambridgeshire Run
The wind op clearly worked and he has run very well on his four starts since that last win. Yes, he has a zero beside his name for his last run, but that came in the 34 runner Cambridgeshire. He was only beaten 4.75L for the win in 15th and he was 3L off fourth racing off a mark of 92.
The 7yo son of Zoffany now gets a mile on what will hopefully be soft ground at Ascot for the first time since running in this race three years ago. He finished 4th in a Longchamp G1 on heavy back in the day and while he hasn’t yet won on testing ground, some of his best form has come on it. Off 12lbs lower than he was when fourth in 2020, Graignes could outrun his odds of 50/1.
