2023 US GP Raceday Update

Our F1 expert James Punt got off the mark for the weekend in the Sprint Race. His 16/1 e/w selection Lewis Hamilton sneaked into second spot soon after the start and he held on for the place money. Fingers crossed we can continue in a similar vein today. You can check out James’ 2023 US GP Raceday update and tips below.

2023 US GP Raceday Preview

What did we learn from yesterday’s dress rehearsal?

Verstappen won comfortably once he had broken the DRS range with Hamilton. In turn Hamilton was clear best of the rest. 8.5 seconds clear or Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc.

Lando Norris said he needed just one more lap to catch and pass the Ferrari of Leclerc. Norris was held up by the other Ferrari of Sainz for so long that it cost him the time needed to catch the other.

Sergio Perez had an uneventful race to fifth place but he never looked like really troubling Norris and Leclerc ahead of him. Perez said that he was suffering from quite bad tyre deg which stopped his progress. That is concerning for a driver regarded as a master of tyre management.

Sainz On Soft

Carlos Sainz was the only driver to use the soft tyres and it did help him make up two places at the start, but the degradation meant he then lost those places towards the end. However, it was a fairly positive exercise in terms of telling us that Ferrari are not suffering with chronic tyre deg which bodes well for their race.

The two Alpines both made up a couple of places on their starting positions, but Gasly was handed seventh place thanks to Russell’s five second penalty for leaving the track and gaining an advantage. Russell isn’t having a good weekend.

Alex Albon only just missed out on a point by 0.3 seconds but he dropped a place having started in eighth. Oscar Piastri was the big loser, overheating his tyres and dropping back into tenth place from his fifth placed start.

Aston Martin Nightmare

Aston Martin’s weekend from hell continued. Stroll was a DNF and Alonso dropped one place on his starting position to finish thirteenth.

Haas were a team to watch to see how their race pace would pan out with their new upgrade. The outcome was indifferent. Magnussen lost a place, Hulkenberg gained one, but there was nothing to suggest that their upgrade was doing what they had hoped for.

Alpha Tauri were OK, Tsunoda made up five places but he was starting from nineteenth. Ricciardo dropped a couple of places and they look unlikely to score points, even with Tsunoda starting eleventh. He has finished in the top 10 in both previous races here, so maybe he can keep that good run going if there is some attrition ahead of him.

Alfa Romeo were in there somewhere but does anyone notice? They start twelfth and thirteenth, so points are not far away but they have not showed anything to suggest they have the pace to make any great progress.

Today’s Race Prospects

The actual Grand Prix will hopefully be a better spectacle than the Sprint was. This is a track that offers up overtaking chances and with a full race distance we have race strategies coming into play. Can anyone manage a one stopper, and so on. We saw no safety cars yesterday and that was a bit of a surprise and didn’t help to light up the race.

We have the fastest driver starting from sixth place so Verstappen has a job of work to do if he is to win, but he has overcome greater handicaps than starting sixth. The DRS is very powerful on this track and Red Bull’s DRS is especially potent.

Verstappen knows his first job is to negotiate the first lap without incident and then simply pick off the cars in front one by one. Without doubt, his greatest threat is the first corner.

Dangerous Start

The start here is always marked by cars coming together at turn one and even the careful drivers, minding their own business and staying out of trouble can get clattered by some hooligan trying an overly ambitious lunge. If he clears Turn 1 intact, it is only a matter of how long it takes him to get the lead.

Verstappen will be helped by the fact that the five cars in front will all be racing eachother hard. It is hard to see anyone of them breaking away, If they are squabbling amongst themselves, Verstappen will be upon them very quickly.

Charles Leclerc starts from pole in the fast starting Ferrari. He should be able to keep Norris behind off the line but the McLaren looks to be the better race car and Norris is on a run for three straight podium finishes and is well placed for another.

Straight Line Speed Concern

Lewis Hamilton is carrying some of our cash and he needs to at least hold his starting position to cash in. The Mercedes has been good so far and it is usually better still over a race distance. The only concern for him is a lack of straight line speed.

He will be OK so long as he can stay in DRS range of the car in front. If he loses that, he is then a bit vulnerable from a close pursuer. His track record is excellent and he is very happy with the upgrade.

When Hamilton is happy, he is fast and with the proviso of getting through to first corner unscathed, his podium prospects look good.

Russell Struggling

We are also on Russell to get a podium and a Mercedes double podium. If he showed the kind of race pace that he had in Qatar, we are quids in, but Russell has been poor so far. Too many driver errors and he has not be able to get the kind of performance out of the car as Hamilton has done.

Sarting from fifth place, a podium is not out of the question, but there are competitive cars around him and he cannot afford any more mistakes. The team say they have a realistic shot at a double podium but Norris, Verstappen and Hamilton are faster and the two Ferraris will not yield easily.

Outside of the top six, Alpine are well placed for a rare double points finish. Alonso is very unlikely to be taking up a place in the top 10 for once, but Perez should be quicker and Piastri, if he doesn’t continue to have tyre trouble.

Race Winner

That will be Verstappen so long as he gets the first lap out of the way in one piece. He is just 1.36 to do so and there is no great value there.

Podium Places

We are already on Hamilton at 3.80 and Russell at 4.33. Hamilton is now into 1.50 and Russell 3.75. The market looks to have it right with Verstappen, Norris and Hamilton all short odds on. I’ll stick on the two Mercs and hope for the best.

Top Six

It would be no great surprise to see the top 6 on the grid finish in the top six come the end of the race. Sergio Perez has the car to make up places but he is a basket case mentally at the moment and can’t be backed at 1.53.

The two Alpines don’t have the pace to make the top six on merit, but with a bit of luck, you never know. Odds of 5.00 about both are fair enough but with luck required, I’ll pass.

Top Ten

Much like the top six betting, the cars already starting in the top ten should finish there. There is nobody outside the top 10 who looks to have the pace to have strong claims on a points finish. There could be some attrition to give them a leg up.

Tsunoda could get lucky and continue his good record in Texas, but he makes limited appeal at 2.63. The two Alfa Romeos have picked up some points of late and at 4.33 make more appeal than Tsunoda, but where is the pace going to come from?

There is nothing to get stuck into here either. Alpine are looking for their seventh double points finish of the season and can be backed at 2.00. Tempting, but with five retirements from their last eight races, not tempting enough.

Side Markets

It’s scraping the barrel time when we are delving into the more obscure markets, but needs must.

First Driver to Retire

The attrition rate here is quite high so there should be a DNF or two. The two Aston Martins have had problems this weekend and none more so than Stroll. The hapless Canadian is having a bad season and even being the bosses son is not protecting him from calls for him to get the boot.

The Aston Martin has been suffering with brake problems and he was the only DNF in yesterday’s sprint race. Stroll is a 17.00 shot to be the first to retire but it is a very random market. The last ten races have seen eight different first retirees. Only Ocon and Sargeant have done it twice.

This race has a history of first corner collisions. Last year it was pole sitter Sainz who was out after a first lap harpooning by George Russell. In 2018 it was Alonso, 2016 Hulkenberg. Will Stevens was punted out in 2015, Sutil and Perez in 2014. In 2013 it was Sutil again.

From ten races here, there has been a first lap retirement in six of them and double retirement in one. Trying to pick who is going to crash first requires the skills of Mystic Meg, of which I do not possess. Well, not since Maldanado retired.

Group Betting

At least Ladbrokes have come up with some interesting group betting (why don’t other bookies?) and there are two which look worth playing.

Group 2 consists of Alonso, Bottas, Albon and Tsunoda. Alpha Tauri’s Tsunoda is the 2.65 favourite and he looks to have a decent chance. He goes well here and did a competent job in the sprint race yesterday.

Alonso is in a far from sorted Aston Martin starting six places back, Albon really doesn’t fancy his chances over a race distance and he starts from 18th. That leaves Bottas, who starts two places behind Tsunoda. Bottas looks the biggest threat but Tsunoda has had better pace than the Alfas so far.

2023 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to win Group 2 @ 2.65 with Ladbrokes

Group 4 contains the two Haas cars, Daniel Ricciardo in the other Alpha Tauri and Guanyu Zhou.

From what we have seen so far, the Haas upgrade has not worked. Magnussen said of the sprint race that he had a decent start but then the usual tyre deg kicked in and that was that. If they are still shredding their tyres, they will get found out this track.

Ricciardo is making his come back after missing five races. He has only had two races all season and his race fitness is a worry. He is pain free but rusty. Zhou starts ahead of the other three and while the Alfa Romeo is no rocket ship race pace wise, at least it has scored some points recently.

2023 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Guanyu Zhou to win Group4 @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes

Brazil next weekend and that is usually a good race.

-JamesPunt