2023 European Championship R1 Preview

James Punt has already posted an outright betting preview for this tournament. Check that out here. He has also previewed all of Thursday’s and Friday’s matches, his 2023 European Championship R1 preview is below.

Thursday’s First Round Matches

Danny Noppert vs. Andrew Gilding

Noppert has reached the quarter finals for the last two years but his record in the Majors this season has been poor.

Gilding, like Noppert did before him, is basking in the glow of winning the UK Open and more recently he reached the quarter finals of the Grand Prix. He lost his first round match here last year, his only previous appearance.

Noppert has won just five of his last ten matches and only one of his last five. He reached the quarter final of PC25 last Wednesday and played well, but his form went AWOL after that.

Noppert Leads H2H

These two have met nine times with Noppert winning five. Their last match was a 6-3 win for Noppert at the same stage of this tournament last year. Before that, he had beaten Gilding in the final of PC19 last July, so he has good memories of playing Gilding, and not everyone can say that.

Andrew Gilding had a good prep for this event. At last week’s Players Championship events he played thirteen matches and won nine. He lacked the consistency to suggest he is a proper contender this weekend, but he is playing well enough to suggest he can get revenge for last year’s defeat by Noppert.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point Andrew Gilding to win @ 2.50 with Boyleports

Nathan Aspinall vs. Ryan Searle

Aspinall was a semi-finalist in 2021, the only time he has progressed beyond the second round.

Searle has gone out at the second round stage in his two previous European Championships. The jury is still out on his stage credentials. There is not a lot wrong with his floor form, winning six of his last ten matches and hitting some big numbers. On stage he has lost six of his last ten.

Aspinall’s form is very confusing. He won the Matchplay in July, was runner up in World Series 5 in August & runner up at the World Series finals in September.

Asp Out Of Form

Since that final in Amsterdam, The Asp has played eleven matches and won just three. He has now lost seven in a row and he packed up early after losing two first round matches in last week’s Players Championship events. He wasn’t playing that badly but he has picked up a losing habit.

Their H2H record is 4-3 to Aspinall and their only stage match was on the Euro Tour in May which Aspinall won 6-1.

This is a hard call. It is hard to back a player who has lost his last seven matches, but he is up against a player with limited stage credentials. Aspinall is the 1.67 favourite, Searle 2.25. I can find good reason for not backing either player, so it’s a no bet.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: No bet

Dave Chisnall vs. Chris Dobey

Chizzy may have hoped for an easier first round match but the number one seed meets the 32nd seed and that 32nd seed happens to be the world number 18, Chris Dobey.

They have met on thirteen previous occasions with eight wins to Chisnall and five for Dobey. They haven’t met in 2023 but in 2022 it was 2-1 to Chisnall. Dobey’s win came in this event, beating Chizzy 10-7 in the quarter final.

That was Chisnall’s fourth losing European Championship quarter final. His recent form is very poor. He has lost seven of his last ten matches. He has gone from winning PC23 a month ago, to losing seven of his next eight matches.

In last week’s Players Championship events he averaged just 85.7 across his five matches. That is 10 points below his seasonal average.

Dobey Knocking on The Door

Dobey lost his semi-final last year but he has started to have decent runs in the big events, winning the 2023 Masters, a semi-finalist here last year and a quarter finalist in the World Championship, 2022 and 2023 Grand Prix and World Matchplay. He has been knocking on a few doors and is a dangerous opponent for Chisnall.

Dobey’s recent form is decent, winning six of his last ten matches. In those ten he hit four ton plus averages and he has gone twenty matches without hitting a sub 90 average.

Chisnall may be 8-5 in the H2Hs, but I have to go with Dobey here.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point Chris Dobey to win @ 2.10 SpreadEx

Rob Cross vs. Dimitri van den Bergh

Two time European Champion Rob Cross finally got a regular Euro Tour title under his belt this year. He has a very good tournament record with those two wins, he was runner up in 2017 and a quarter finalist in 2018. There were two first round exits in 2020 and 2022, but this remains his strongest Major.

Van den Bergh has played in three European Championships and only won a single match. His H2H record vs Cross is 3-8.

Cross’ recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches. He averaged 105 in defeat to Gian van Veen last week and 111 when losing to Chris Dobey the day before.

There is a lot to like about his form right now and while he is a player I just cannot call right, he has to fancy his chances of another good run this weekend.

Dimitri Struggling

One of Cross’ recent victims was Dimitri van den Bergh, going down 3-6 last Wednesday. The Belgian is not having a good 2023, with his seasonal average down to 93.8 from 95.6 last year. His seasonal win rate is just 54%.

He has won six of his last ten but his form is all over the place. He played eleven matches last week and won seven, but he had two averages of 84 and two ton plusses. His last four matches saw a combined average of 87.5.

He is regarded as a better stage player than floor player so expect him to raise his game but I’ll take Cross to improve his 8-3 H2H record vs. Van den Bergh. They have met twice in 2023 and Cross won both, 6-2 and 6-3.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point Rob Cross to win -1.5 legs @ 1.95 with Fitzdares

Gerwyn Price vs. Keane Barry

Price has either won or been runner up in all of darts’ ranked Majors. The European Championship is one he hasn’t won, but he was runner up in 2019.

Price is enduring a bit of a barren spell when it comes to the Majors. He won the World Series of Darts finals in 2022, but the last ranking Major win was the 2021 Grand Slam.

Price was runner up in PC 26 last Thursday, losing to pre-tournament 151.00 shot, Ryan Joyce. It was a fine day and it was a great performance to beat Price who is in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches with seven averages over 96.

Keane Barry reached two Euro Tour quarter finals to qualify. He qualified for the 2021 finals but lost in the first round.

Barry is 0-3 vs. Price with all three matches being on the floor. He did take Price to a deciding leg last time out and he is not without a chance, if he can find his A-game. Barry’s recent form is not great, losing five of his last ten and his last three in a row, so he looks up against it here.

Price is the 1.21 favourite and there is not much to be interested in betting wise. No bet.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: No Bet

Peter Wright vs. Gabriel Clemens

Wright was the 2020 champion, a two time semi-finalist and four time quarter finalist, including last year.

Clemens has lost all three of his first round matches in this event and outside of his surprise run to this year’s World Championship semi-finals, his Major record is pretty dire.

Their H2H record is 5-3 to Clemens which is surprising but when they met at this stage back in 2020, Wright won 6-3.

Snakebite Simmering

Peter Wright is simmering right now. His form has been largely poor in 2023 but his recent form has seen him playing well again and a tournament win can’t be far away.

He was runner up in the final Euro Tour event of the season a couple of weeks ago, a quarter finalist in the Grand Prix before that and a quarter finalist in PC26 last Thursday. His consistency isn’t great yet but he is getting there. He has won five of his last ten matches, which doesn’t look like title winning form.

Clemens has also won five of his last ten matches and he is playing OK, but nothing special.

Wright is the 1.67 favourite and he should be able to make sure Clemens record in the European Championships remains 100% defeats.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point Peter Wright to win @ 1.62 generally available

Michael Smith vs. Raymond van Barneveld

Smith is 14-10 against Barney and while RVB won their last match at the World Series finals, Smith has won six of their last eight matches.

Smith was the runner up here last year, having previously had a fairly modest record. Barney hasn’t qualified for this event since 2015, but he did reach two semi-finals and three quarter finals in his pomp.

Smith has won five of his last ten matches but he is playing better than that sounds. There has been some disappointing performances but he is playing OK, but not his best.

Barney is playing pretty well, winning seven of his last ten matches and reaching two Players Championship quarter finals in the last month. He beat Michael Smith 6-4 in the World Series finals last month and that should be a warning for Smith. He can’t afford a half-hearted performance.

Smith is the 1.42 favourite and Van Barneveld 3.30. In their last five best of 11 leg matches, Barney has either won, or would have with +1.5 leg handicap and that looks a reasonable bet.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point Raymond van Barneveld to win + 1.5 legs @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes

Martin Schindler vs. Stephen Bunting

Schindler won six of his ten matches at last week’s Players Championship events. He played some good stuff, and some not so good stuff. The consistency isn’t what it could be. He will be hoping to finally get a European Championship match win under his belt on his fourth attempt.

Stephen Bunting has been in decent form since changing to a heavier dart. Bunting has played seven European Championships and won five of his first round matches.

He won six of his ten matches last week, three of his losses were in in final leg deciders, ending a great run of winning deciding legs. His play was consistent, averaging over 95 in nine of the ten.

Their H2H record is 6-4 to Schindler and in 2023 it is 1-1.

Bunting is playing the more consistent darts right now, he is the more likely winner and he is the 1.67 favourite, with Schindler 2.25. The odds look about right. Bunting, you know what you are going to get, Schindler not so much. No bet.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: NO bet

Friday’s First Round Matches

Damon Heta vs. Gian van Veen

A tough draw for Heta, the number seven seed. The Aussie has played in two previous European Championships but only won one match and his record in the big TV events is not great, the World Cup excepted.

He has made four quarter finals from twenty one Major appearances. His H2H record vs. Van Veen is good with three wins and one defeat. The defeat was an emphatic 6-0 in ET 10, so he knows what Van Veen can do.

Van Veen averaged 114 that day, Heta 104, but their last match was a 6-4 to Heta with both players averaging under 90. Heta warmed up for this event with a run to the final of PC28 last week, losing to Ross Smith, but winning eight of his last ten matches is very good form.

Tournament Debut

Van Veen is making his tournament debut. He too had a good warm up by reaching the semi-final of PC27 last week and he has won seven of his last eight matches.

We know that Van Veen is a rare talent but he is still developing as a player. He doesn’t yet have the consistency of the top players, but he does have the game.

Heta is the 1.87 favourite and Van Veen 2.10. Their four matches have produced a lot of 180s, a total of 28 in 34 legs played. If we get a reasonably close match, we should get a good crop.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point over 5.5 180s @ 2.10 with Betfair

Krzysztof Ratajski vs. Joe Cullen

The Polish Eagle has had his wings clipped of late, losing seven of his last ten matches. Joe Cullen is hardly flying either, losing five of his last ten and four of his last five.

Ratajski has played in five European Championships and lost all five first round matches. Cullen has played in seven and twice reached the semi-final but has also lost three first round matches.

Cullen has reached the semi-finals of the last two Majors and he is on the cusp of moving into the World top 10. Their H2H record is 5-3 to Cullen, and he has won four of their last five. They have not met this year and Cullen is having a decent season, better than Ratajski even though the Pole did win ET11 last month.

Early Exits

Ratajski looked to have the hang of the big TV events in 2021, reaching two semi-finals and three quarter finals, but 2022 and 2023 have seen him exit early and it just isn’t happening for him on TV.

Cullen is the 1.60 favourite with Ratajski the 2.40 outsider. They have played six best of eleven matches and none have required more than nine legs. Cullen to cover the handicap at 1.91 or just back a short match at 1.80? I’ll go for the latter, just in case Cullen has one of his stinkers.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point under 9.5 legs @ 1.80 with BET365, Hills, Boylesports, Fitzdares

Josh Rock vs. Daryl Gurney

A Norn Iron derby match and one that has some significance outside of just this match. The top three ranked Northern Ireland players, Rock, Gurney and Dolan have been stuck to each other like glue in the rankings for what seems like months.

Rock has finally taken the lead, now ranked 26th, Gurney 27th and Dolan 28th. The top two ranked players will make up the Northern Ireland World Cup team in 2024 and we may see an end to the long standing, and not very successful, Gurney and Dolan line up.

All three players are in this tournament, the Players Championship finals and World Championships. All three will have one eye on the rankings and not just for the usual reasons.

Mixed Record Superchin

Gurney has a mixed record in this event, with two semi-finals but also four first round defeats. Rock made it to the second round last year on debut.

The two players’ recent form is interesting. Rock had been enduring a rough patch but he had a better time last week, reaching the final of PC25 on Wednesday. Overall, he played 18 matches and won 14 and he’ll be feeling much happier about his game.

Daryl Gurney also enjoyed himself last week, hitting a nine darter and his highest recorded match average of 117 in a 6-0 win over Ian White. However he only won seven of his eleven matches.

Superchin is playing the kind of darts he did in his pomp, his scoring is back up with the best, his consistency has improved, but he isn’t putting proper long runs together very often.

Win On The Radar

There have been a couple of Players Championship quarter finals and a semi-final in the last couple of months which is encouraging but he just needs a break, a bit of luck. Finding a few opponents who have a bad day rather than playing their A game against him. If he gets that break, I expect a tournament win to be on the radar.

This match has a bit of an edge to it. Rock is now the Northern Irish number 1 by a margin of £8250. A win here and Gurney closes that gap by £4k, win in the second round and he gets back to number 1. Everyone likes to be their home nations number 1.

First Meeting

Their H2H record is 0-0. This will be their first match which adds more interest. Josh Rock is the 1.67 favourite with Daryl Gurney 2.30. It is a hard one to price up.

A couple of weeks ago, I would have had Gurney as favourite, but with Rock’s return to form last week, his chances have improved. That said, Gurney is playing very well himself and he is the more experienced player in the big events.

The value looks to lie with Gurney. On recent form, this is a coin toss and I’ll take 2.30 on that toss.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point Daryl Gurney to win @ 2.30 with BET365

Jonny Clayton vs. Jose de Sousa

Clayton made the 2020 semi-final here but otherwise has not progressed beyond the second round. Jose de Sousa has won all three of his first round matches in this event and reached the quarter finals in 2021.

Clayton has won just four of his last ten matches and his form has dipped just at the wrong time. He only won four matches last week and while there were some good performances, he is finding winning tricky all of a sudden.

Jose de Sousa is in a similar vein of poor form, also losing six of his last ten. Those four wins took him to a quarter final last week but he got a few breaks and his scoring was largely poor.

Their H2H record is 10-4 to Clayton and he got his greatest win, the 2021 Premier League final against Jose. On TV Clayton is 7-1 against de Sousa.

The Ferret is the 1.50 favourite with De Sousa 2.75. Both players are not in great form and I’ll leave this alone. No bet.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: No Bet

Dirk van Duijvenbode vs. James Wade

Dirk has a decent tournament record, having reached the quarter final in 2020 and the semi-final last year. Outside of his Masters quarter final, 2023 has been a lean year so far in the Majors and he is not in good form, losing five of his last ten matches.

James Wade has now slipped out of the world top 16 and that is a sign that his powers are waning. This will be his fifteenth European Championship and he won it in 2018, on the back of becoming a first time dad.

He was runner up in 2020 and while his record in Majors has dropped off in 2023, he usually wins his first round matches in this event. Like Dirk, Wade has also lost five of his last ten matches.

Their H2H record is 5-3 to Van Duijvenbode and the Dutchman beat Wade 10-7 in the second round here last year. Two players who are not in good form is never a great betting opportunity. Dirk is the 1.75 favourite and Wade 2.10. It is hard to fancy either. No bet.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: NO bet

Luke Humphries vs. Brendan Dolan

This looks like a good draw for Humphries. Arguably the best player in the world right now he has played Dolan five times and won four, their last four, and won them comfortably. Humphries was a beaten quarter finalist here last year and he is a regular at the business of all the big tournaments these days.

Dolan was a semi-finalist in 2012 but hasn’t made it beyond the second round in his subsequent four appearances.

Humphries only played in two of the Players Championship events last week and made the semi-final of PC26 on Thursday, going down 6-7 to Gerwyn Price. He has won seven of his last ten matches and he is playing with great consistency.

Brendan Dolan reached the semi-final of PC25 last Wednesday but followed that up with three first round defeats. He has lost five of his last ten matches and if Humphries turns the big guns on Dolan, his fire power could overwhelm the Northern Irish veteran.

He has suffered three hefty losses to Humphries with score lines of 2-7, 0-6 and 2-6 across their last four matches, the other was a 4-6.

Humphries is the 1.29 favourite, Dolan 4.20 and I can’t argue with those odds.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 1 point Luke Humphries to win -2.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betfair

Madars Razma vs. Michael van Gerwen

The H2H record here is an unsurprising 6-1 to MVG. He is the 1.17 favourite to improve on that.

Van Gerwen has won the Premier League, two World Series titles, the World Series final, two Euro Tour titles and a Players Championship in 2023, but his last ranking Major was the 2022 Players Championship finals. That is a good haul of titles, but it isn’t what MVG expects of himself and does suggest that at odds of 4.50 to win the title, he isn’t great value.

He has won seven of his last ten matches but he didn’t play in the last week’s Players Championship events. He does like to keep his schedule well managed, winning qualifying titles early and then taking time off later, in order to keep fresh for the string of big money events which are coming thick and fast.

Razma Off Colour

Razma qualified by the skin of his teeth and he has not been in good form for a while. His recent form can only be described as dire. Just one match won in his last eleven played. One of those defeats was a 2-6 loss to MVG a month ago.

This should be a simple pick up for Van Gerwen, a question of not if he wins, but by how big a margin. Two of MVG’s last five best of 11 leg match wins against Razma have been 6-2 and something similar looks likely.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: 0.5 point Van Gerwen to win 6-2 @ 4.70 with Unibet

Riccardo Pietreczko vs. Ross Smith

The defending champion, Ross Smith couldn’t have prepared much better for his title defence than by winning PC29 last Saturday. He has now moved into the top 16 in the world rankings with that win, his second Players Championship of the year.

His recent form sees thirteen wins from his last sixteen matches at last week’s four Players Championship events. He hit ten ton plus averages and he should be feeling very confident coming into the event.

Confidence High

Pietreczko will be feeling nearly as confident after he won the final Euro Tour tournament of the year, beating Peter Wright 8-4 in the final, and hitting eight doubles from eight attempts.

He followed that up by reaching a Players Championship semi-final last Friday and a quarter final on Saturday. He has won eight of his last ten matches but his scoring hasn’t been at the same level of high scoring consistency of Smith. Four of his last ten matches saw averages of under 90.

Here we have two of the players in the best form coming into the tournament and it is a shame that they have to face each other in the first round. One of them will fall at the first hurdle, but who will progress?

H2H No Help

Their H2H record doesn’t help us much with four played and two wins apiece. Smith won their last match, played last month, 6-2. Only one of their four matches required more than nine legs but you would think that this one would be close.

Smith is the heavier scorer and if he gets going on the treble 20, he is very hard to beat. He makes his own throw hard to break and constantly puts his opponent’s throw under pressure.

Pietreczko is less consistent, doesn’t usually have the same kind of firepower, but as we saw on the Euro Tour, his finishing can win tournaments.

Debutant

Pietreczko is making his tournament debut and he has only played in three previous Majors without making any great impression. Smith won this last year and has played in 32 previous TV Majors, not with much success it has to be said.

Smith is the 1.73 favourite and I do think he is the more likely winner, but with his opponent also in top form, there is no value in his odds.

That said, Pietreczko lacks experience, is not as consistent as Smith and he makes only limited appeal at 2.25. It is arguably the best looking match of the first round, but that doesn’t make it a great betting opportunity. No bet.

2023 European Championship R1 Tip: No Bet

-JamesPunt