2023 Breeders Cup Friday Preview & Picks – DS
2023 Breeders Cup Friday Preview & Tips
After taking last weekend off, Dave Stevos is raring to go this week. We have an action packed couple of days ahead of us. The Breeders’ Cup on Friday and Saturday and then on Saturday afternoon we have NH action from Wetherby and Ascot. Last year we did quite well at America’s flagship flat meeting, fingers crossed for more of the same. 2023 Breeders Cup Friday previews and tips are below.
9.00 – Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
The Friday is definitely the trickier of the two days at the Breeders’ Cup this weekend. The card focuses solely on the 2yos and the fillies’ races in particular can be tough to decipher. However, at Santa Anita we can be pretty sure about one thing, it usually pays to be on the front end.
The last time the Breeders Cup was held at Santa Anita was in 2019. On the Friday night, two horses made all and the rest of the winners came from midfield at the worst. Over this 5f trip, if a front runner is drawn low and pings the gates, like Big Evs often does, they can be very hard to peg back.
Nicely Drawn
Mick Appleby’s star juvenile is nicely drawn in stall 4. If he starts like he did last time at Doncaster, they might not see which way he goes. The only worries are his lack of experience on a turning track and also the fact that his last two wins came on soft. Sandwiched between those runs was a poor effort on good to firm at York. That being said, he won at Ascot on good to firm so he should be fine.
In stall 1 is Crimson Advocate, an all the way winner at Royal Ascot last time out. She hasn’t run since but her trainer George Weaver says she is ready to rock. No Nay Mets in stall 2 also made all last time, as did Tiger Belle in 3. With Big Evs in 4, this looks like it’ll be a proper burn up in the early stages and it might just come down to who is quickest away.
Big Odds
Out in stall 7, Shards could outrun his odds of 40/1. By Bucchero, this horse will be comfortable slotting in behind the early pace. British jockey Adam ‘Biscuit’ Beschizza rides and he was on board for the first time last time out in a Listed heat at Keeneland.
In that race he dropped Shards out in rear and he came with a proper late rattle. He met traffic problems in the closing stages so he did well to finish just a neck behind Committee Of One and Amidst Waves, both of whom re-oppose here. On another day, Shards could have beaten the both of them.
I’m hoping that the lower drawn horses all go hell for leather at the start to try and get the early lead. That should enable Beschizza to get across and slot in just behind the pace setters. If he is close enough when they turn for home and he gets a clear run through, hopefully Shards can sneak a place at odds of 40/1.
2023 Breeders Cup Friday Tips: Shards e/w @ 40/1 (4 places) NB
9.40 – Juvenile Fillies Dirt (Grade 1)
We have our first odds on jolly of the weekend here in Tamara. Trained by Richard Mandella, this daughter of Bolt D’Oro is 10/11 to make it 3/3 after a dominant G1 win in the Debutante at Del Mar (7f Fs) in September.
She landed that contest by 7L and she had Chatalas, 16/1 here, 13L behind her in fourth. Given the manner of that win at Del Mar, it is difficult to see Chatalas turning that form around, even over this extra furlong.
She isn’t the only unbeaten filly in the race. Candied (2/2), Just F Y I (2/2) and Jody’s Pride (2/2) have yet to taste defeat so someone’s 0 is definitely going to go. Candied and Just F Y I are the next best in the betting at 5/1 and 10/1 and they both landed G1s over this trip last time out. Jody’s Pride scored in a G3 on her last start at Belmont over 6f. The big question mark for her is this step up in trip, on pedigree it’s probably as far as she wants to go.
Lively Outsider
Are there any lively outsiders in here? There is certainly each way value to be found thanks to there being a short priced fav and a couple of firms will pay 4 places. From a nice draw in stall 2, maybe Scalable can nick a bit of e/w money at 20/1.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, this horse chased home Chatalas last time out over this C&D. The winner was able to dictate the pace and made all, but Scalable ran on very pleasingly in the closing stages to finish just 1.5L back in second.
Chatalas is unlikely to get as easy a lead in front this time and if she is forced to go a stronger pace by others keen to get to the front, that could well enable Scalable to finish much closer to her, if not beat her. It looks like stamina, rather than speed, is this daughter of Speightstown’s strength and if the front runners misjudge the fractions and go too quick, Scalable can hopefully pick up the pieces at odds of 20/1.
2023 Breeders Cup Friday Tips: Scalable e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
10.20 – Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)
We are back on the grass for this 8f contest and two European raiders head the market. Carla’s Way is the 10/3 fav for the Crisfords and James Doyle. She won the G2 Rockfel at Newmarket last time out and her run style should be well suited to this track.
Fast ground is ideal too but she was beaten nearly 6L by Porta Fortuna when they met at Royal Ascot so a case could be made that Donnacha O’Brien’s filly should be favourite. This trip is an unknown for both fillies but they are bred to stay at least a mile.
Home Challenge
The home challenge is headed by She Feels Pretty. Trained by Cherie DeVaux, this daughter of Karakonite lowered the colours of the Charlie Appleby trained Dazzling Star in a Woodbine G1 last time out (8f gd). She beat that 95 rated rival by nearly 7L so that puts her right in the mix with the top two. 7/1 looks a more than fair price.
Buchu has more experience than her shorter priced compatriot. Philip Bauer’s daughter of Justify misfired on her first three starts but the last twice she has looked a very promising filly. She hosed up in a G2 at Keeneland last time out, coming from last to first down the wide outside. The quicker they go early, the more it will suit this filly and a huge run would come as no surprise.
Excellent Record
Trainer Chad Brown has a better record than anyone else in this race. He has won it five times, including three in a row between 2016-2018. He had the 5th in 2022, the 3rd in 2021 and in 2023 he relies upon 14/1 shot, Hard To Justify. This filly has raced just twice, winning a maiden the hard way on debut at Saratoga then landing a G2 at Belmont early last month.
A lot went wrong on that first outing but she showed a willing attitude to get up late for the win. Last time out, she was a lot more professional. Drawn on the inner, she slotted in behind the early leader and travelled nicely. As they turned for home it looked like Whimsically was going to lay down a big challenge but once Flavien Prat asked his mount to quicken and go and win her race, she did exactly that.
It was hard not to be taken by the manner of that victory. She clearly learned a lot from overcoming adversity on that first start and while her wide draw in stall 12 isn’t ideal, she proved she can be effective when coming from off the pace on her debut. Chad Brown’s last winner of this race, Newspaperofrecord, won the same Belmont G2 as Hard To Justify on her final prep run, hopefully this filly can follow in her hoofsteps at odds of 12/1.
2023 Breeders Cup Friday Tips: Hard To Justify e/w @ 12/1 (4 places) NAP
11.00 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Dirt (Grade 1)
Bob Baffert (5 wins) and Todd Pletcher (3 wins) are the trainers to follow in this race. Baffert, possibly one of the most unlikeable figures in racing, runs three this year. So does Todd Pletcher. They provide 60% of the ten runner field between them and three of the four market leaders.
The sole European representative is Cuban Thunder, a 100/1 shot trained by Adrian Murray for Amo. He ran a nice race to pick up some black type at Dundalk last time over 7f, but this is a different kettle of fish. It would be a huge shock if he were good enough to win.
This race doesn’t appeal to me as a betting heat. History suggests that either Baffert or Pletcher will win it and so does the market. We’ll keep the powder dry for this one. No bet.
2023 Breeders Cup Friday Tips: No bet
11.40 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
This race has been a happy hunting ground for the Europeans. Aidan O’Brien has won it five times since 2011, including last year’s renewal with Victoria Road. This year he fires three bullets. On jockey bookings River Tiber looks the number one hope. Ryan Moore rides him, Frankie is on Unquestionable and the up and coming Dylan Browne McMonagle is on Mountain Bear.
River Tiber’s best form this season came when winning the Coventry at Ascot. He has yet to tackle further than 6f and given his speedy pedigree, this 8f trip has to be a worry. The son of Wootton Bassett is very nicely drawn in stall 2 though and if he does stay the trip, he looks the one to beat.
Pedigree Clues
On breeding, Unquestionable looks a more likely candidate for a mile. His dam is by Sea The Stars and he ran well on his first attempt at 7f in a Longchamp G1 last time out. Ryan Moore has abandoned him but he is replaced by an able deputy in Frankie. Mountain Bear looks like he needs to improve plenty to trouble his stablemates.
The one I’ll be taking a chance on at around 12/1 is My Boy Prince. One of two runners from the Mark Casse yard, this son of Cairo Prince is 3/5 so far. His first three runs came on the dirt at Woodbine over 4.5f/5f/6f and after finishing 2nd on debut at the shortest trip, he won the next two.
Grade 1 Company
Casse switched him to G1 company on turf at Woodbine on his fourth start and stepped him up to a mile. My Boy Prince bounced out, went to the front and he was only mown down late on by Carson’s Run who came widest of all. Last time out he landed a lesser event, again at Woodbine, making all for an easy 4L win.
He isn’t badly drawn for a front runner in stall 5, Joel Rosario has had a spin on him before and he is proven at today’s trip. His pedigree is nothing to write home about but he looks an ideal sort for this race and if Joel Rosario is able to dictate from the front, hopefully he can steer My Boy Prince into the money at odds of 12/1.
