2023 Brazil GP Sprint Race Preview & Tips – JP
2023 Brazil GP Sprint Race Preview
James went very close to landing a monster 150/1 e/w bet in qualifying. He is back in action this evening, check out his 2023 Brazil GP Sprint Race preview below.
2023 Brazil GP Sprint Race
Charles Leclerc described Fridays GP qualifying as ‘probably the strangest session of my career’. It wasn’t as strange as last year’s qualifying session which ended up with Kevin Magnussen on pole at 1001.00, but the rapidity of the change in the weather and its sheer violence was indeed, strange.
In the end we got Verstappen on pole, which isn’t very strange at all. It was a well-deserved pole. There was the now usual bollocks of drivers blocking the pit lane exit, but Verstappen was having none of it and just drove over the grass to get past them. That meant he got his flying lap in early and before the weather changed too dramatically.
Leclerc on Front Row
Leclerc very nearly aborted his lap as it felt like it was too slow but he ended up in second place. The two Aston Martins locked out the second row, with Alonso slower than Stroll. That suggests that he didn’t quite nail that final lap. But that was qualifying for tomorrow’s race and we can revisit it in the GP update tomorrow.
Saturday is Sprint day, a standalone entity with the shoot out this afternoon setting the grid for this short race. This will be the sixth, and final sprint race weekend of the season.
Red Bull have won four, McLaren the other. Max has won three, Sergio one and Oscar Piastri the other. Four have been won from pole position, the other, Perez in Baku, was from second. They haven’t been particular exciting events, certainly at the front.
The top 3 on the grid have finished in the top 3 in three of the five sprints so far. Sainz came from fifth to finish third in Austria, and Gasly came from sixth to finish third in Belgium. Both of those sprint races featured rain, of which none is forecast for today.
Team By Team
McLaren
Just about the fastest car over one lap here this weekend. They dropped the ball in the GP qualifying yesterday, going out too late in Q3 to get the best track conditions. Norris rectified that today, but only by the smallest of margins.
Red Bull
Still the team to beat but they no longer have it all their own way, in qualifying sessions at least. Verstappen lost out to Norris by 0.061 seconds this afternoon, blaming a poor first corner. Segio Perez was a creditable third on used soft tyres, the quickest of the four drivers on used tyres.
The car’s aero efficiency is allowing them to run a Monaco spec rear wing but the car was still second fastest on the straight. That will pay dividends in the longer race tomorrow. That big wing will keep the rear end planted and maximise tyre wear.
Mercedes
Will be hoping that their usually strong race pace will bring them into the frame this evening. Their long run pace on Friday was good, second only to Red Bull, but they are losing too much speed on the long uphill finishing straight.
Russell was ahead of Norris after the first two sectors earlier but lost three places due to that lack of pace on the straight. I suspect they will be better suited to tomorrow’s longer race. This no stop sprint will leave them vulnerable to attack on the straight and make it hard for them to overtake.
Alpha Tauri
Pants in yesterday’s GP qualifying but both cars into Q3 today. Tsunoda starts sixth, Ricciardo eighth. Their long run pace was OK, slower than the big four, but better than the rest. They should be hoping to get one car into the top 8 but a lot depends on how Ferrari go.
Ferrari
Paid the price for having no new soft tyres available for Q3 today. Their long pace looks better than Alpha Tauri but looking after their tyres is not their party trick.
Haas
Showing good one lap performance once again, but this will be their high tide mark.
Alpine
Have gone for a low drag set up and they have been below par so far.
Alfa Romeo
Struggling all weekend so far.
Aston Martin
Executed yesterday’s GP qualifying brilliantly, but the pace just wasn’t there today. Their long run pace on Friday wasn’t very encouraging.
Williams
Looked OK in FP1 but that was not a representative session and they have been back markers since. Strangely slow on the straights.
2023 Brazil GP Sprint Race Selections
Verstappen is the 1.44 favourite, Norris 4.33, Perez 13.00, Russell 19.00, Hamilton 23.00 and Tsunoda 151.00.
Hamilton was third from eighth here last year, and fifth from twentieth in 2021. Overtaking is relatively easy and Hamilton has the track record here to suggest he could do it again.
However, his car hasn’t shown any great pace so far. Their long run pace was encouraging but still slower than Red Bull. So long as Perez doesn’t make a hash of it (again), the top three looks hard to break into today. Hamilton is 4.20 to finish on the podium if you fancy that one.
Pole Key
The pole position driver has won four of the five Sprint races so far in 2023 which does suggest that Norris has a chance. The McLaren is a form car, much improved and capable of matching Verstappen in qualifying.
Can they manage to keep the Red Bull at bay over a longer distance? Oscar Piastri managed it in Qatar. Verstappen started third that day with Norris in second place. He got past Norris to finish second in a mad race with three safety car deployments.
There is just enough juice in Norris’ price to have a go.
2023 Brazil GP Sprint Race Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win the Sprint race @ 4.33 with Betfred, SpreadEx
There are not a lot of side markets but there is enough value for another modest bet on Ricciardo to finish in the top 8.
The Alpha Tauri looked to have reasonable long run pace and while he may need someone ahead of him to have a slip up, this is a track that gives him a chance. Sainz will be hard to keep behind him, but maybe his teammate, Tsunoda, is the driver who could fall back.
