2023 Brazil GP Raceday Preview & Tips – JP
2023 Brazil GP Raceday Preview
It was a case of close but no cigar for us in the Sprint Race yesterday. Lando Norris finished 2nd and Ricciardo missed out on the top 8 by one place. James Punt has been knocking on the door this weekend, hopefully it opens today. Check out his 2023 Brazil GP Raceday preview below.
2023 Brazil GP Raceday Update
We have finally arrived at the actual Grand Prix. This is what I don’t like about the Sprint weekends. The proper race feels a bit ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’.
We have had two qualifying sessions and one race already. The Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility definitely applies to Sprint race weekends.
The upside is that we should now know what to expect. I will caveat that by saying that the ambient temperature at the track today will be around five degrees cooler. That may change how the tyres interact with the track and that could change the performance of some cars.
It will be very sunny and that will allow the track surface to heat up, so the actual track temperatures may not be that different from yesterday’s Sprint.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
They may have made a mess of this race last year, but Red Bull have nailed it this time. The McLaren may be their match over a qualifying lap, but the Red Bull has superior race pace.
Verstappen was allowed to take the lead at the first corner and it must be said that Norris may as well have stepped aside and held the door open for him. Norris said he may have been a ‘bit conservative’. I would say, soft. Once clear of the DRS, Verstappen was on cruise control for the rest of the race.
Improving Perez
I was happy to see Perez put in a good performance. He got a poor start and it looked like he was going to have another shocker, but he gathered it up and just drove past the Mercedes like they were parked. Both Red Bulls held on to their tyres very well and, along with Norris, they were in a class of their own.
Perez has to start from ninth today, so he has a lot of work to do to make the podium, but the car has the pace to do so. Tyre management will be key to his progress, and he has been very good at doing just that in the past. Perez does not have any new soft tyres left which is a negative.
Ferrari
We know the script here. It was another good qualifying performance from Leclerc but will it again count for nowt? Ferrari didn’t quiet fall off a cliff tyre wear wise in the sprint, but they were very quickly in preservation mode.
Sainz finished one place higher than he started, Leclerc two places. They decided to start the race on used soft tyres, which didn’t help, but it does mean that Leclerc still has one set of brand new soft tyres for the race, and that is useful. I am pretty sure Sainz had to use one more set than Leclerc but I’m not 100% on that.
The lower air temperature should also be good news for Ferrari. The drivers were managing both brake and engine temperatures very early on yesterday. The plan today is to be able to push a bit harder. We shall see if they can do that without pushing the tyres over the edge.
Aston Martin
Both drivers made good progress in yesterday’s sprint, not enough to recover from poor qualifying positions, but they will have learned a lot about how to approach today’s race.
They start from third and fourth on the grid today. Both drivers are talking about a podium finish and there might be room for one of them, if they can muster a bit more pace. Alonso was losing his tyres a bit in the later stages of the sprint but he had been racing hard, so that was only to be expected.
A double top 6 is a more realistic target, but they both have a set of new softs, which the Mercedes do not. They have the tools, can they use them?
Merecedes
I’ve backed the wrong team again this weekend. From being the track specialists, Mercedes have got their setup all wrong this time. The car is lacking rear end grip and that is killing the tyres.
We associate Mercedes with strong race pace, but yesterday they folded very quickly. Russell hung onto his fourth place starting position, but Hamilton dropped two places and his tyres were shot after twenty laps. He was picked off by Sainz and Tsunoda in the Alpha Tauri and had there been another lap or two, he would have been passed by Sainz and Ricciardo.
The team are limited by what they can do to the car to improve things today but is fair to say that the drivers are a lot less optimistic than they were 24 hours ago. They have no new soft tyres, which limits strategy a bit, and their lack of straight line pace makes them a sitting duck, especially when their tyres are going off.
McLaren
A tale of two drivers. Lando Norris just about kept Verstappen honest in the sprint. His pathetic start apart, he drove a steady race, he was passed by Russell but it didn’t take long for him to regain second place and he and Verstappen were in a different formula to the rest.
Norris starts from sixth today, which makes things a little more difficult, but the McLaren is the second fastest car this weekend by some margin.
Piastri had a relatively poor sprint. He started and finished tenth and he showed that while overtaking here is possible, so is getting stuck in a DRS train. Piastri spent the race fighting with Alonso and Ricciardo but lost out to both. He starts from tenth place again today and his fate may be the same.
Hopefully Norris gets a decent start and lands that podium finish bet. He certainly has the pace.
Haas
It is a question of how many places they will lose today. Starting from eleventh and twelfth sounds promising but when it comes to race pace, the Haas has none. They lost eleven places between them yesterday and we can assume something similar for today.
Williams
Albon starts from thirteenth place and he will get past the two Haas cars soon enough. He started from nineteenth yesterday and finished fifteenth. He just held on to his tyres better than Alfa Romeo and Haas but the car itself showed no great pace.
If he keeps his nose clean at the start and passes the Haas, he might pick up a point if someone ahead drops out. He doesn’t have anyone who looks a lot quicker close behind him, the Alpha Tauris are, but can they make up all the required places?
Alpine
With Aston Martin binning their upgraded car this weekend, Alpine are on the back foot again. They just haven’t got any pace and look stuck outside the top 12, never mind the top 10.
Alpha Tauri
It is an unusual thing to say, but Alpha Tauri look to be the team to be starting from the most out of position on the grid today. Their pace yesterday from both cars was very good, but on Friday they were nowhere.
That means starting from sixteenth and seventeenth, but in a car that held on to the soft tyres really well in yesterday race. Both drivers were flying in the dying laps, Tsunoda regaining his sixth place and Ricciardo was one lap away from getting seventh place.
New Softs
Both drivers also have new soft tyres for the race. They got 25 laps on their new softs yesterday and looked like they could have gone further. Are they in a position to go for a one stop strategy? They might well not have to if we get a safety car but the capability is there to go longer than just about anyone else.
They have good potential to make serious progress today and with a bit of luck, earn some points. Ricciardo has two new sets of softs and that might come into play on strategy or safety car opportunities.
Alfa Romeo
Slow on Friday and pretty dire in the Sprint. Their tyre deg was very poor, right down there with Haas.
Race Winner
Max Verstappen, if you want a 1.35 shot with Unibet. If you had backed Verstappen all season at these odds, you’d actually be doing OK, but it’s not for me.
We are on Hamilton ante post each way, but I think we can safely bin that. He is in a bit of a huff again, saying he can’t wait to see the back of this car. Lando Norris would need Verstappen to have a major problem if he is to win, but he is the next best on pace.
Podium Finish
We have backed Norris ante post and despite him starting from sixth place, he is still a 1.50 shot to make the top three, so fingers crossed for that one.
Others to consider are Perez, yes, Perez, at 2.45. His problem is starting ninth. Norris is faster and ahead so Perez is really racing the two Aston Martins and maybe Leclerc.
Ferrari are hard to call. With new soft tyres they are in a good position to have a good race, but if they start to suffer the usual bad tyre deg, then Leclerc is vulnerable.
Aston Hard To Call
Aston Martin have been hard to pin down. From excellent qualifying pace on Friday, to poor qualifying pace on Saturday, to a decent turn of pace in the Sprint. If Perez doesn’t catch them, they might get a podium, but Norris looks like a stick on to pass them both.
Alonso is a 9.00 shot to finish on the podium, Stroll 34.00. Those look very big odds for a team starting from the second row. They held on to their tyres reasonably well yesterday, certainly better than Mercedes and on par with Ferrari.
If Stroll gets a good start, and that is the best part of his game, he should have Alonso riding shotgun and that is one of Alonso’s greatest strengths. Would a faster Alonso be allowed to beat Daddy’s Boy if a podium was at stake?
Good Position
Aston Martin are in a good position. Being near the front means not getting stuck in a DRS train, driving in cleaner air and they should clear the Mercedes soon enough. Norris will get past but then it looks like Leclerc vs. two Aston Martins for the final podium, if Perez can’t creep his way up the order.
Ferrari have big tyre deg questions to answer and the odds on Stroll are just too big for a driver starting from third. Yes, it is very likely a good value loser, but stranger things have happened. The best odds are with Hills, so it’s a loose change bet in any event, but Sporting Index are also 34.00.
2023 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Lance Stroll to finish on the podium @ 34.00 with Hills, Sporting Index
2023 Brazil GP Raceday: Top 6 finish
If the Stroll bet is a touch ambitious, I will temper it with a more conservative bet on Alonso. He starts fourth with a good selection of new tyres at his disposal. Their long run pace was decent yesterday and there is pace in the car, as we saw in qualifying.
Mercedes would normally be a huge threat but on yesterday’s evidence, they are not. The lower track temperature might transform the Mercedes but they are not optimistic.
Ferrari have question marks over their tyre deg issues, so Aston Martin really should finish top six with a clean race.
2023 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Fernando Alonso to finish in the Top 6 @ 2.00 with Hills, Betfair, Betvictor
Points Finish
Albon makes some appeal at 3.50, but the car doesn’t have top 10 pace, so he needs luck. Both Alpha Tauris have top 10 pace, but start way back down the grid. Both Ricciardo and Tsunoda need to be backed, but is there a better option than 2.75 for a top 10 finish?
Group Betting
Ladbrokes and Hills both have the Alpha Tauris in groups, but not good ones. Hills have them up against Stroll, which isn’t on, and Ladbrokes have them both in the same group and at short odds.
Hills have Alonso to beat Sainz, Piastri and Russell at 2.75, but we have enough eggs in the Aston Martin Basket. I don’t like the look of any of the other groups on offer this weekend.
Match Betting
At last, a way to back the two Alpha Tauris without having to take in very ambitious targets.
2023 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to beat Pierre Gasly @ 1.73 with Hills
2023 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Daniel Ricciardo to beat Esteban Ocon @ 1.80 with Hills
Betting without Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Aston Martin and Mercedes
At the very grave risk of backing the same drivers twice, which usually summons the bad luck demons, I’ll have a small play on Alpha Tauri to win this market.
