2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips
It wasn’t a total disaster for us at the Breeders’ Cup. Hard To Justify won for us at 12s and we had three more places at double figure odds. It wasn’t perfect but it was an improvement on recent showings and hopefully we can build on it this weekend. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday tips below.
1.15 Wincanton – Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)
After a decent spill of rain in the last few days the ground will be on the soft side at Wincanton. It is currently soft, good to soft in places and with a dry day forecast on Friday, it is unlikely to change too much.
The favourite, Flagrant Delitiep will enjoy the conditions. Robert Walford’s charge landed a second C&D handicap off 127 in March 2022, the other one coming off 112. The ground was soft for both of those runs and he has career form figures of 421222135 around here at today’s trip of 20f. He’s in off 108 today and with a run under his belt, he has obvious claims.
Bigger Price
Another horse that likes it here but that is a far bigger price is Stormy Flight. In off a mark of 122 today, this son of Cloudings’ most recent win came over 23f on good ground at Taunton. He has yet to win at Wincanton but he has run some decent races in defeat, including on ground similar to today’s.
In March earlier this year he was beat 0.75L off 124 over 25f. His five previous runs at Wincanton have generated form figures of 23U23 and while that last third here a month ago was a remote one, he shaped well for a long way before tiring in the closing stages.
That was his seasonal reappearance and he has tended to need a run in the past. He does stay further than today’s trip, a positive given the soft ground, and with Luke Scott’s 3lb claim he is effectively 5lbs lower than when narrowly beaten here back in March. Eight of his rivals lack a recent run, hopefully Stormy Flight can make his fitness edge count and reward e/w support at 20/1.
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips: Stormy Flight e/w @ 20/1
1.30 Newcastle – Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
I thought we were done with the flat after last weekend but seemingly not. To be fair, we have three good races up at Newcastle, including the November Handicap later on.
This Listed heat is for the girls only and a very decent field of 13 will line up in the stalls. Last time G3 runner up at Newmarket (10f sft), Veil of Shadows, is the current jolly at 11/4 for Appleby and Buick. She is a solid filly but the standard she sets isn’t that high and she could be worth taking on.
Irish Raider
Dermot Weld sends Giladah across the Irish Sea and Chris Hayes has travelled over to ride. Her rating of 93 leaves her with a bit to find on the figures but this step back up to 10f could be just what she needs to get her head back in front.
She has already placed twice at the trip and she has been running on well over shorter in recent runs. She picked up black type at Killarney back in July (8f yld), beat 2.75L by Indian Wish into third. The runner up, Unless, landed a Listed heat at the Curragh on her next start. Clever And Cool was fifth and she has since won at Listed and G3 level.
Last time out at Killarney in another Listed contest Giladah was a touch keen in the early stages. She finished 6th of 8 but she was only 3l behind the winner Salt Lake City at the line. This stiff track should suit her and with Chris Hayes back in the plate, hopefully she settles better today. If she does, Giladah is capable of running into the money at odds of 14/1.
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips: Giladah e/w @ 14/1 (4 places) nb
1.50 Wincanton – Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
With just six runners this isn’t a betting race for me. However, this is a race that’ll be well worth watching. Knappers Hill is odds on and on the figures, especially with a recent run under his belt, he is the one to beat.
Captain Conby has taken very well to chasing and he was 12L behind the classy Sharjah last time out in a G3 Novice Chase at Tipperary. Doyen Star is another fascinating runner for Evan Williams. He is undefeated after three runs, one in a P2P, and he fits into the ‘could be anything’ bracket. If the ground dries out at all it will suit him.
However, I’ll just watch this race today with a view to the future. No bet.
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips: No bet
2.05 Newcastle – Wentworth Stakes (Listed)
Three of the ten runners in this Listed sprint are owned by the Nick Bradley racing club. Secret Angel is the highest rated with a mark of 96 and she is trained by Karl Burke. The other two are trained by Grant Tuer and at first glance, it looks like Sophia’s Starlight is his main hope on jockey bookings.
However, PJ McDonald gets the leg up on Glorious Angel and while she is the lowest rated of the three Bradley horses (88), when Tuer has booked McDonald this year he has usually meant business. McDonald is 2/8 for Tuer in 2023 with a further four top 4 finishes.
Gone Close
Glorious Angel has gone very close in handicaps under a 3lb claimer the last twice. She was beat a short head off 85 at Catterick (5f hvy) before finding Aberama Gold too good by 1.25L at Donny last time in a valuable heat. She is admittedly worse off with that rival but she could turn the form around on this surface.
Aberama has been beat a combined distance of 17L on two Newcastle starts, Tuer’s charge has a win and a 2nd from 4 previous visits. That win came over 5f back in January, but she has won over 7f at Southwell so this 6f trip is well within her compass.
To my eye, she has probably been running to 95/96 on her last couple of starts and with her 5lb allowance, that puts her in the mix with the likes of Brad The Brief, Tacarib bay and Albasheer, all of whom are much shorter in the betting.
Glorious Angel’s dam was placed in a Listed heat at Ayr back in 2016 at 40s under PJ McDonald, hopefully her daughter can repeat the trick at Newcastle. At 22/1, she is the e/w selection.
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips: Glorious Angel e/w @ 22/1
2.25 Wincanton – Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier)
Frodon won this race off 158 last year. The admirable 11yo is back to try and repeat the dose off the same mark, but this time the ground will be very different. It was good to firm last season, this time it’ll be much softer. On the plus side, Frodon has a stellar record when fresh, Paul Nicholls will have him fit and you couldn’t fully discount him.
At 10/1, Certainly Red might represent a bit of e/w value. Lydia Richards’ stable star was last sighted finishing a respectable seventh in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown off 142. He got 2lbs back for that run and he makes his seasonal bow off 140. That’s 5lbs higher than he was when winning easily on his last visit to Wincanton.
Track Specialist
His form figures at this track over 24/25f read 111. The 9yo has a decent record on his seasonal comebacks too. He ran poorly in 2019 on his return but since then he has form figures of 21B and he will surely be primed for this big pot given his fine course record.
Right handed, flat tracks seem to suit him well and while he wouldn’t want it too testing, the soft, good to soft in places ground at Wincanton should be ok for him. Jockey Mark Goldstein knows him inside out and he’s been on board for all six of his career wins. If Certainly Red is going to win a big one, it’ll surely be at Wincanton so at 10/1, he is the e/w selection.
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips: Certainly Red e/w @ 10/1 (4 places)
2.45 Aintree – Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2)
We have already backed Ganapathi at 40/1 ante-post for the Grand Sefton. My main angle for fancying him is the heavy ground and if he is going to bounce back, conditions look ideal. He has shortened slightly into 28/1 and I’m happy to stick rather than twist. Read more about why I fancy him here.
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips: Ganapathi already advised @ 40/1
3.00 Wincanton – Elite Hurdle (Grade 2)
Elite Hurdle by name, but most definitely not elite by nature. Just five run and on the figures, Rubaud should win comfortably, even conceding weight to his rivals. The ground is a concern for him though so I wouldn’t be steaming in at 5/6.
Hansard looks the biggest danger but that is reflected in his odds. He’ll like the ground, he ran well in a G1 last season but he was 15L behind the Nicholls horse when they met at Kempton.
West Balboa is also interesting for the Skeltons. She’ll enjoy the ground and she has yet to finish out of the first two in five starts under rules. She is half tempting at 10/1 but with just two places on offer, we’ll keep the powder dry. No bet.
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.32 Wincanton – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
She is admittedly a risky proposition after bombing out on her seasonal return over fences, but Space Voyage is a better mare than she showed a month ago at Worcester (20f gd/sft). Trained by in form Olly Murphy, she lost her position after a mistake at the seventh and then quickly lost touch. Sean Bown reported that she made a noise and Murphy took immediate action.
She has since had a wind procedure and it must have been a minor one given she is back in action this quickly. Murphy has also added a tongue tie so hopefully, her wind issues will be sorted out. If they are, this daughter of Kayf Tara could be a big danger on her handicap bow off 123.
Three in A Row
She won her final three starts of last season, with two of them coming on flat, right handed tracks. She beat the 122 rated Soldier Of Destiny by 1.25l on soft at Huntingdon and she had the 119 rated Guy 3L behind when wining at Ludlow on good to soft in April. The runner up has since placed off 120 in a handicap so the form is decent enough.
With Lewis Stones taking off 3lbs, Space Voyage is effectively in off 120. Ollie Murphy has had 7 winners from 35 runners in the past fortnight and he is 7/47 with 23 top 4s at Wincanton. Usually, I don’t like backing horses that have just had a wind op but at odds of 16/1, I think it’s worth taking a chance on Space Voyage for small stakes.
2023 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tips: Space Voyage e/w @ 16/1
3.45 Newcastle – November Handicap (Class 2)
It would have been preferable for this race to be run at Doncaster. The ground would usually be testing and there would often be a few soft ground horses targeted at the race. However, the course is unraceable so this year, the race has been transferred to Newcastle.
That is bad news for the mudlovers, but it is good news for those horses that prefer less testing conditions. One horse who will be thrilled with the new venue is Onesmoothoperator. Trained by Brian Ellison, we backed this horse earlier this season at Haydock. He finished 4th off 92, one place out of the money, but he was given too much to do.
Frustrating
The 5yo son of Dialed in has undeniably been frustrating to follow this season. He often shapes as though he has a nice pot in him, but he struggles to get the job done. Three starts ago he ran a cracker here over 10f in a £26k handicap off 89, beat a length into 2nd behind Storm Catcher.
This lad has won twice in his career, both on the all-weather. One of those wins came at Newcastle in a 10f Novice and he has form figures of 132223025 at the track. He was beat 0.75L off 89 by Sir Chauvelin over C&D in February 2022, a run that would give him a big chance in this.
Back To Form
Brian Ellison hasn’t had a winner in over a month, which is a worry, but he has had a number of places in the last fortnight so his horses are slowly coming back to form. This should be run at a nice even gallop, which will suit the 5yo, and I’d imagine connections can’t believe their luck that the race has been switched to Newcastle.
Hopefully today is the day that things fall right for Onesmoothoperator and if Ben Robinson can time his challenge correctly, he should be bang there at the finish at odds of 22/1.
