2023 Wednesday Grand Slam of Darts Tips – JP
2023 Wednesday Grand Slam of Darts Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Wednesday Grand Slam of Darts Tips. He fired in another two winners on Tuesday night, he’s aiming for more of the same this evening.
Group Stage Reflections
The first round matches proved lucrative, but the Group selections not so much. Price and Noppert were the only two selections to win their groups, but Smith, Bunting and Heta all lost out on leg difference.
Of our two outright selections, a very disappointing Peter Wright is out, while Chris Dobey made it through to the second round and faces James Wade tonight.
Wright has to go back into the basket case category. His once famous consistency has gone, perhaps for good. He’ll pop up and win the odd tournament, but it does look like he is going to struggle from now on.
Longer Format
This is now a very different tournament. From very short round robin group matches, we are now playing long best of nineteen leg matches. Expect the usual ebbs and flows of the longer format. The better, more experienced players should be favoured a bit more, but no doubt there could still be a few twists and turns.
In terms of the outright betting, Gerwyn Price is now the 4.50 favourite to win his fourth Grand Slam title. He has been very impressive so far and while he hasn’t won a ranking major for a while, this is his favourite event and he has looked very comfortable.
MVG Too Short
Michael van Gerwen is also 4.50 and I really can’t see how he can be the same odds as Price. MVG has looked far from comfortable. He was taken to a deciding leg by Kleermaker last night with Martijn averaging just 81.
Anyone else in the group would have beaten MVG and he remains vulnerable. Maybe the longer format will help him? Maybe, but he will be facing tough tasks from here on in. Luke Humphries has looked the most likely winner, if Gerwen Price slips up. Sadly they are in the same side of the draw and cannot meet in the final.
Josh Rock vs. Krzysztof Ratajski
Josh Rock has not been that impressive despite winning his three group games and dropping just four legs doing so. He has averaged 89 across the three and while his last match vs. Van Peer was just a bit of a pantomime game, he was a fraction under 92 in the other two.
He just faced opponents who didn’t turn up. His opponent’s 3DA was just 84.6 and frankly, he should be winning matches like that with ease.
Ratajski, not the best TV player, played a lot better in his group matches. He won in a deciding leg against Wade and lost a deciding leg against Smith, averaging 100 across those two matches. Nathan Girvan was an easier night’s work to make the play offs.
Rock Must Improve
On what we have seen so far, it is Rock who will need to improve here. Rock has won six of his last ten matches and he had played better in most of those matches before coming here.
Ratajski has also won six of his last ten matches and while his win rate is nothing special, he is playing with a good deal of consistency, certainly every bit as well as Rock.
Their H2H record is 5-2 to Rock, but Ratajski has won two of their last three, including a 7-4 victory in the semi-final of ET11, which Ratajski went on to win. That was their second Euro Tour semi-final and Rock won the other 7-3. None of the matches have been particularly close.
Rock is the better player in most of the statistical metrics and if they both play their A games than Rock wins, but as I said earlier, Rock hasn’t shown his A game so far. Is it there waiting to come out and play?
TV Record
Well, his record in TV majors is scant and what there is, isn’t great. This is only his tenth TV event and he has never reached a quarter final. Ratajski is no major beast himself, but he has reached seven TV quarter finals, albeit from a much bigger number played.
Rock is the 1.67 favourite and Ratajski 2.38. Ratajski lost 3-10 to Clayton in 2018 while Rock lost 8-10 to MVG here last year.
The outright odds look about right, maybe there is some value in Ratajski but I had hoped for better odds. The side markets are equally lacking in interest and this is a no bet for me.
2023 Wednesday Grand Slam of Darts Tip: No Bet
James Wade vs. Chris Dobey
Wade is giving it large that he’s going to put it up to them again. He is in decent form, winning six of his last ten matches but he is rarely going to outscore his opponents. His finishing keeps him competitive but he is vulnerable to a high scoring opponent who is hitting the doubles.
He was certainly very good on the outer ring in all three of his group matches, but still lost to Ratajski, beat a weak Nathan Girvan and Michael smith just didn’t turn up in the group decider.
Chris Dobey had been the model of consistency coming into this event, but he was poor in his first two matches, losing 2-5 to Rock then struggling to beat Van Peer in the second match.
He finally looked more like himself when beating Clayton in the final match. Hopefully he can be a bit more relaxed having escaped the group phase and he plays like how he had been playing before the start of the tournament.
Wade Edges H2H
Their H2H record is 6-4 to Wade. They have met twice in 2023, with one win each. They have played three first to ten leg matches on TV and Dobey is 2-1, including a 10-8 win in this year’s Matchplay in July. Hollywood and The Machine met in the quarter final in this event in 2016 and Wade won that 16-5.
There is a pattern in their past meetings. When Wade wins, he wins easily. When Dobey wins, it is always close. That doesn’t really help unless you have a strong feeling as to who will win.
Wade has played fourteen second round Grand Slam matches and won five, including his last two. Dobey has only played one and won one.
Chris Dobey is the 1.80 favourite and Wade 2.12. Hopefully the market is correct and that Dobey does win, and if so, past form suggests a close match.
Again, value is thin on the ground, but I’ll take the chance that Dobey can repeat his win at the Matchplay and we get him into the quarter finals in a close match, or if not, he can at least give Wade a proper match.
2023 Wednesday Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 over 16.5 legs @ 1.91 with Betfair
Gerwyn Price vs. Gary Anderson
Well we all know one thing here. Gerwyn Price will not be the darling of the crowd. It will be all, Oh Gary, Gary, even from the Scottish baiting football fans in the crowd.
If and when Price gets the upper hand, it will be ‘Scotland gets battered’ for the rest of the match. So which chant will prevail? My money is on ‘Scotland gets battered’.
That infamous Grand Slam final of 2018 not only cast Price as the pantomime villain for time immemorial, it announced his arrival at the very top table of professional darts, whether Gary Anderson liked it or not.
Their H2H record is very close. Anderson leads 11-10 thanks to winning their last three matches, all this year and all on the floor. That reflects Anderson’s tremendous form in the Players Championships this season.
So good is it that he is second in the Players Championship OOM. Second to Gerwyn Price. Their H2H record on TV since that 2018 final is 6-1 to Price. That includes a 16-9 win here in the 2019 quarter final.
Price The Fav
Price is the 1.57 favourite to win with Anderson 2.50.
If Anderson could bring his floor form into this this match, then we could have a banger. He did hit a 102 average in his last group match against Lennon, which offers some hope. However, Price averaged 112 and 110 in his last two group matches, which does suggest that Price is punching a lot harder.
Over the last 12 months Price has been hitting 180s at 0.32 per leg, Anderson 0.33. Over the first three group matches it is 0.53 for Price and 0.33 for Anderson. Price is the 2.10 favourite to hit the most 180s, Anderson 2.20. Again the value is slight.
The only bet that makes any appeal to me is under 16.5 legs. I have the feeling that if Price kicks off with more very heavy scoring, Anderson will find it hard to resist and fold.
If, on the other hand, Price has one of his off nights, and there have been quite a few on TV in the last year or two, Anderson could find a way in and Price can down tools.
2023 Wednesday Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point under 16.5 legs @ 2.05 live Fitzdares, Livescorebet
Luke Humphries vs. Ryan Searle
Humphries has dropped just four legs in the group stage and averaged a 100+ in all three matches. Rock solid form and he is hungry for more major success before the start of next season. With the World Grand Prix under his belt, his confidence is now matched by his ability. That is a potent combination.
Ryan Searle got it all together, including a nine dart leg, in the final group game, beating Nathan Rafferty 5-3. He hadn’t been convincing up to that point, losing 0-5 to a rampant Price and needing a deciding leg to beat Gian van Veen.
Old Friends
Both players have won seven of their last ten matches, Humphries in better style. These two are old mates which I’m never comfortable with when betting on matches.
Their H2H record is 8-5 to Humphries. On TV 3-1 and in 2023 2-1. They have played two first to ten leg matches on TV and Humphries won both, 10-7 and 10-6.
Humphries is the better player, especially since he became a major winner. He is used to having good runs in the big TV events, while Searle has just one losing final under his belt and a couple of quarter finals.
Humphries is the 1.40 favourite but I’ll take him to cover a -2.5 leg handicap for the third time in first to ten leg TV matches vs. Searle.
