2024 WC Darts Friday Preview & Tips

It’s Dartsmas!!! The PDC World Championship finally begins today and we can’t wait. James Punt has been flat out preparing for this event and he has already posted two ante-post previews. His outright winner preview is here, and you can check out his side market tips here. His 2024 WC Darts Friday tips are below. Fingers crossed for a great three weeks of arrows!

And So It Begins

Here we go. The marathon starts here. The first round matches are played in a best of five set format. There are a lot of less than attractive matches and the betting opportunities are far from spectacular.

There is the option to back lots of short odds on bets, but I prefer to wait for bets with a bit more meat on the bone. It is a long tournament and the better matches are on the other side of Christmas, but no doubt there will be a few opportunities before then.

Kevin Doets vs. Stowe Buntz

Ironically, most people may be more familiar with Stowe Buntz than tour card holder Kevin Doets.

The colourful American made a big impression by reaching the quarter final of the Grand Slam of Darts last month. He was a virtual unknown on this side of the pond but averaged 102 in his first round 5-1 win over Peter Wright. He also beat Stephen Bunting 5-3 in his second group match, which was more of a surprise.

Buntz lost to Dave Chisnall but still made the knockout phase. He beat Andrew Gilding in the last 16, before losing his return match with Bunting in the quarter final.

It is important to note that while Buntz hit a ton plus average in the first round, all of his following four matches saw sub 90 averages. His seasonal average is 86.9, so it was his final four matches which were more representative of his ‘normal form’.

Disappointing Year

Doets got his tour card in January and he was a much heralded player. His first year has been a little disappointing given that he was being hyped up as a player to watch, but he did reach the final of PC20 in September.

Most recently, Doets has lost five of his last ten matches, with six showing sub 90 averages. Doets seasonal average is 90.52. The Dutchman is not very experienced in Major Championships as he has only played in the UK open and Players Championship finals this year, reaching the last 32 in both.

Debutant Nerves?

Here we have two players making their World Championship debuts and also opening the show. How they cope with the occasion will likely decide the winner.

There is not a huge amount between them standard wise, Doets is the better player but his B-game makes him vulnerable and his B-game has been the one mostly on show recently.

What we know of Buntz is that he took to the stage like the proverbial duck to water last time out and that makes me believe that he might be able to be a little more relaxed, and be able to enjoy the experience.

It is rare that these opening matches produce much in the way of quality and this may be no exception. Doets is the 1.73 favourite with Buntz 2.20. Buntz may be a touch of value at 2.20, but this doesn’t strike me as a particularly good opportunity. No bet.

2024 WC Darts Friday Tip: No Bet

Cameron Menzies vs. Rusty-Jake Rodriguez

These two played each other six weeks ago and it was Rusty Jake who was the 6-5 winner. The Austrian won his place at the Tour Card holders qualifying event and he averaged 106.8 in his final match, beating George Killington 7-1.

He has won seven of his last ten matches, but that 106.8 average was an outlier in terms of his scoring in those last ten matches. Six of them saw sub 90 averages and that is his problem, a terrific A-game but not a lot of consistency.

Rodriguez has played in one previous World Championship, and he beat Kiwi Ben Robb 3-1 in the first round before losing 2-3 to Chris Dobey in the second round. He has played in six Major Championship matches and won just two matches.

Improving Menzies

Cameron Menzies has improved his game in 2023, upping his seasonal average to 93.91, considerably better than Rodriguez’ 88.47.

The Scotsman has lost six of his last ten matches but three of those defeats were to some pretty handy players, Rob Cross, Damon Heta and Josh Rock. Of course, one was also to Rusty-Jake. Menzies averaged 97.5 in that match and he probably should have won it.

They have met four times, and Menzies won the other three. Like Rodriguez, Menzies has played in one previous World Championship and he too won his first round match, 3-1 against Diogo Portela. He then lost 0-3 to Van der Voort in the second round.

Menzies is the 1.62 favourite with Rodriguez 2.50. I’ll have a small bet on Menzies to repeat his first round scoreline of last year.

2024 WC Darts Friday Tip: 0.5 point Menzies to win 3-1 @ 4.00 generally available

Simon Whitlock vs. Paolo Nebrida

Whitlock is a veteran of fifteen PDC World Championships and he has won eleven of his opening matches. Obviously, The Wizard is in the autumn of his career but he isn’t one for giving up. Last year he played another Asian qualifier, Christian Perez, and he narrowly won 3-2.

Nebrida made his World Championship debut last year and lost his first round match 2-3 to Danny Jansen. He reached seven finals on the PDC Asian tour in 2023, winning one. His seasonal average is 84.51 and even against an aging Whitlock, he is up against it here.

Whitlock Short odds

Whitlock is the 1.08 favourite and Nebrida 13.00. The Aussie is in poor form, losing six of his last ten matches, hitting four sub 90 averages and one sub 80.

A high 80s average would still likely to be enough for Whitlock to win, but there are enough very poor performances from Whitlock to think that if Nebrida brings his A-game, he might cause, if not an upset, at least make things uncomfortable for Whitlock, just as he was made to feel 12 months ago. I’ll have a go in the handicap market.

2024 WC Darts Friday Tip: 1 point Nebrida +2.5 sets @ 2.40 ladbrokes

The final match of the evening will see defending champion, Michael Smith, taking on the winner of the opening match between Buntz and Doets.

No doubt Smith will be a hot favourite but it is worth noting that of the last six years, the defending champion has dropped a set in five of them. Smith to win 3-1 might be a decent wager.

Whoever he plays will have already played on the same stage just a couple of hours ago and that may be something of an advantage.

-JamesPunt