2023 Saturday Cheltenham Christmas Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Saturday Cheltenham Christmas Meeting Preview
Cheltenham is becoming a real bogey track for us. We went 0/4 on Friday and they all ran pretty poorly. Kaleb was given a strange ride and was only 3L or so off a place. Enjoy D’Allen never travelled, Paricolor didn’t stay and Up Helly Aa King shaped as though he was as fit as I am (not very). Let’s hope for much better tomorrow, check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Saturday Cheltenham Christmas meeting tips below.
1.15 – Quintessentially Handicap Chase (Class 2)
An interesting little race to get us underway on ITV on Saturday. Just seven will run but with most firms paying three places, I’ll take a chance on Sophie Leech’s Madara. Owned by Bryan Drew, Bravemansgame’s owner, Harry Cobden gets the leg up for the first time on this 4yo son of Doctor Dino.
This horse was formerly trained in France and on the form of his win at Compiegne (19f v sft) in March earlier this year, a mark of 130 looks workable. The runner up from that race, to whom Madara was giving 9lbs, won a G3 next time out. The third has won two races since, including a Listed chase last month.
UK Debut
On his UK debut here on good to soft Leech’s charge was running a nice race off 135 when unseating Ciaran Gethings at the third last. He still hadn’t asked him for an effort and he was upsides Notlongtillmay.
Last time out over this C&D again off two pounds lower he was ridden more aggressively and he faded into sixth in the closing stages. He was only 6L behind Triple Trade and 3L behind Walk In Clover at the line though so it was still a decent run.
This will be the first time he has got his favoured soft ground in the UK. The booking of Cobden looks significant and I think he’ll appreciate these conditions a lot more than many of today’s rivals. With three places on offer, Madara is the e/w play at odds of 12/1.
2023 Saturday Cheltenham Christmas Meeting Tip: Madara e/w @ 12/1 (3 places) nap
1.50 – December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier)
Railway Hurricane has finished second and third on his last two visits to Cheltenham. It was good ground when he ran on strongly from the back for second in October and last time on soft, he was sneaking into the race when he got hampered by a faller which cost him any chance.
He ended up finishing third off 130, 15L behind the winner Ginny’s Destiny. That form was advertised here yesterday and while it was too soon to say whether he’d have beaten the Nicholls’ horse, he was arguably travelling better and there is no doubt he’d have finished closer with a clear run.
The son of Perugino is 7lbs wrong at the weights today but that is offset by Conor Stone-Walsh’s claim. Gavin Cromwell has an outstanding strike rate with his Cheltenham runners and it was enhanced further by Le Malmason on Friday. Testing ground is fine and if he gets a clear run around, Railway Hurricane can hopefully hit the frame at odds of 22/1.
2023 Saturday Cheltenham Christmas Meeting Tip: Railway Hurricane e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
2.05 Doncaster – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 2)
In contrast to Cheltenham, the ground is a bit quicker at Doncaster. It is good to soft on the chase course and that should be fine for most of this field. The favourite, Cerendipity, scored over 15f at Wetherby on soft ground last time. The ground may be a slight concern for him. His two career wins have come on soft/heavy and while he has placed form on good to soft, he may need it softer than this to show his best.
Mister Who ran a blinder on his chase debut at Lingfield last time (20f gd/sft). He should improve plenty for that and he has to have huge claims today off just 2lbs higher. Deeper Blue also shaped with plenty of promise at Plumpton on his seasonal return and he may well have some wriggle room off his current mark of 129.
3lbs Swing
Cruz Control is another promising sort but like the rest of the aforementioned horses, he is single figure odds. Glory And Honour has 1.5L to find with him on their meeting at Newcastle (20f gd/sft) and he might turn that form around now that he is 3lbs better off.
Sam England’s son of Elusive Pimpernel is a very consistent animal. He has finished in the first two on all five starts for England, including a win at Cartmel on his stable debut in August. He’s been on the go a long time though and you’d just worry that he might need a break at some stage. That being said, he ran as well as he ever has done last time and odds of 12/1 are just about big enough to warrant an e/w interest.
2023 Saturday Doncaster Tip: Glory And Honour e/w @ 12/1
2.25 – Sun Handicap Chase (Premier)
This race revolves around Protektorat. I really fancied him to defend his crown in the Betfair Chase but he didn’t show anything like his best. He was far too fresh and keen and he trailed in last of four, 29L behind Royal Pagaille. If that run has knocked the freshness out of him, he is undoubtedly talented enough to win this off 165. However, he’s been fairly well beaten on his last two starts and for now, he is best watched.
It is impossible to make a case for the rank outsider Back On The Lash. Rapper has won over C&D off 3lbs lower but he bled on his last visit to this track. Last time out he pulled up with an irregular heartbeat so he is a very risky proposition. The rest of the field are currently chalked up at 11s or shorter so I’m afraid this is going to be a no bet race.
2023 Saturday Cheltenham Christmas Meeting Tip: No Bet
2.40 Doncaster – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Tommy’s Oscar needs no introduction to regular readers of the blog. It has been a wild ride following the 8yo for the past couple of seasons and I’m surprised to see him reverting to hurdles today. He didn’t stay the 20f trip at Aintree over fences in October but he didn’t run too badly in fourth.
The Hamiltons’ stable star is much better suited by two miles on a flat track. That is what he gets here and he has already shown a liking for this track. He is 2/2 at Donny, winning a handicap hurdle on good off 147 two years ago and a Grade 2 Novice Chase on good to soft back in January.
This will be his first start over timber since a disappointing run in the 2022 Fighting Fifth. He also failed to fire in the Champion Hurdle in March 2022, but in his last handicap hurdle he dotted up off 150 at Musselburgh (16f gd/sft). The form of his yard is a slight worry but I don’t think they’d run this horse if he wasn’t right.
If Tommy is at his best, I think he wins this and you won’t get 7/1 about him too often in handicap company. A win bet is advised.
2023 Saturday Doncaster Tip: Tommy’s Oscar win @ 7/1
3.00 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
After a fairly long spell in the doldrums, John McConnell’s horses are starting to turn the corner. He didn’t have any winners over jumps or on the flat in November but he has already had winners in both codes this month.
He relies on Moon D’Orange in this 3 mile Grade 2. By Spanish Moon, this horse ran well at Thurles last month when the yard was under a cloud. He stayed on well after getting outpaced and he finished 1.75L in front of Sarah Beara, a horse that ran a lovely race for us at Cork last weekend.
Exciting Prospect
On his previous start at Carlisle (20f sft) he finished just 2L behind the very exciting prospect Johnnywho. Whistle Stop Tour, an 18L maiden hurdle winner on his previous start, was another 4L back in third.
I think the form of those two runs matches up well against what the majority of his rivals have achieved so far. The cheekpieces look a wise addition given how he ran at Thurles last time and he comes into this race with his trainer in much better form. This stiffer test should suit Moon D’Orange too so at 14/1, he is worth backing e/w.
2023 Saturday Cheltenham Christmas Meeting Tip: Moon D’Orange e/w @ 14/1 nb
3.15 Doncaster – bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2)
He is single figure odds but given the form of his trainer, Twoshotsoftequila still looks overpriced at 9/1. Rebecca Menzies has fired in six winners from nineteen runners in the last fortnight and this horse has rattled the crossbar on both starts this season.
The 6yo son of Snow Sky was beat a neck off 117 on his return to action at Carlisle in October. A month later he found just Some Scope too good by 0.75l at Catterick (25f gd/sft). He now pitches up here in a better race off a career high mark of 121 but he may well be up to the task, especially at Doncaster.
He has had one previous run over C&D and it resulted in an emphatic win off 112 back in March. Brian Hughes takes over from Nathan Moscrop in the saddle and his quiet style should suit this horse. He is 24/148 when riding for Menzies with 59 top 4 finishes. This race has probably been the plan ever since his win here last season so at 9/1, Twoshotsoftequila is the e/w selection.
2023 Saturday Doncaster Tip: Twoshotsoftequila e/w @ 9/1 (4 places)
3.35 – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The last race of the Cheltenham Christmas meeting is a minefield. It is a 20f handicap hurdle for the mares and to be honest, it is hard to make a good case for anything at a price. Bonttay is the jolly and she is a nice mare but she might want better ground than this.
Theatre Glory drops in class but she is 6lbs higher than when beaten 4l on her last start in handicap company. Coquelicot is a very useful dual purpose performer and she hacked up in a Listed heat at Kempton last month. All bar one of her eight wins have come going right handed though and she was well beat off 6lbs lower than today’s mark on her last handicap hurdle run at Sandown.
The most solid option looks to be Windtothelightning for Greenall and Guerriero. They have already demonstrated their ability to train winners at Cheltenham this weekend and this mare has placed C&D form in the book. She hacked up on soft ground at Wetherby last time off 120 and a 12lb rise may not be enough to halt her progression. If I was having a bet, it would probably be on her but this is a race I am happy to leave alone. No bet.
