2024 WC Darts Saturday Night Preview & Tips – JP
2024 WC Darts Saturday Night Preview & Tips
We missed out by three on our over 15.5 180s bet in the Heta vs Williams match. At least Rob Cross made short work of Jonny Clayton to land our -1.5 set bet. Just two more bets tonight, check out James Punt’s 2024 WC Darts Saturday Night previews and tips below.
Brendan Dolan vs. Gary Anderson
Dolan saw off Gerwyn Price in the third round and it wasn’t quite the surprise as was made out. Dolan did his thing and got Price frustrated and eventually broke him down. Can he do the same to Anderson? It will be harder.
Anderson is playing well, winning six of his last ten matches and he has scored well in both his matches so far. It was a 98 average against Whitlock and 99 last night against Krčmar. His record at Ally pally is excellent. He has played eleven fourth round matches here and won nine.
Dolan is in decent form, winning seven of his last ten matches. He has reached the quarter finals here before so this is not an entirely new experience for him. He beat Benito van de Pas 4-1 in his fourth round match in the 2019 Championship, but this is a much stiffer task.
H2H Close
Their H2H record is surprisingly close at 10-9 to Anderson. Dolan won their only match in 2023 6-2, but when it comes to TV matches it is 5-1 to Anderson and on this very stage 2-0. That included a 4-1 win in the 2014 World Championship third round.
Anderson is some 6 points stronger in their seasonal averages and he is just getting warmed up now. He has had his obligatory row with the media, just to get himself angry. He knows what to expect from Dolan, he has a lot of respect for his opponent and the fact that Dolan plays a little faster these days will help Anderson.
Scoring key
Gary Anderson is the 1.20 favourite with Dolan 5.40. I don’t expect a whitewash, Dolan is playing well enough to get a set or two, but Anderson’s heavier scoring should be too much. It is hard to see much value here.
Anderson giving up 1.5 sets is just 1.30 and the risky -2.5 sets is only 1.80. Anderson is 1.13 to hit the most 180s and if you are thinking of the match treble, Anderson is just 2.00 and Dolan has already hit some big checkouts, including a 144 vs. Price.
One bet I will entertain is an unders bet on the number of sets. They have not had many close matches. They have only had three matches that went to a deciding leg and the other sixteen matches have been one sided affairs.
Six of Anderson’s eleven fourth round matches have required under 5.5 sets. The problem here is that the odds have been cut to 1.72 from 1.80, but I’ll take them.
2024 WC Darts Saturday Night Tip: 1 point Under 5.5 sets @ 1.72 with SpreadEx
Raymond van Barneveld vs. Luke Littler
One of the most overhyped darts matches ever? When it is being trailed all over the mainstream media people are going to be talking about it and talking about Littler.
Gary Anderon says the media are destroying Littler in the same way as they have destroyed Josh Rock. Is that the same Josh Rock who ended the season ranked 6th on the Pro Tour OOM and ranked 21st in the World in just his second year on tour?
Littler’s ‘problem’ is just about keeping his feet on the ground. There is a lot of smoke being blown up his ass, and he just has to ignore the fuss and play darts.
He could do with a social media manger as all that stuff will turn his head. He has already been in a mini media storm after doing a photo opportunity, holding a kebab and a copy of the Sun. Classy.
Barney The Outsider
Barney says he is looking forward to playing the board tonight but he will know exactly what is going on. He is the (very) senior partner here, but also the 2.95 outsider. He has the crowd on his side in 99% of matches but this will be one of the one percent.
Littler doesn’t lose many matches. His win rate is 85% but that is playing at a lower level and at some point he will come up against someone throwing big numbers at him. That probably won’t be Barney.
Van Barneveld has been around the block a few times and he will have noted that Littler was not at his best against Andrew Gilding. The slow pace of play didn’t really suit him and it affected his scoring.
Slow Tactics?
Barney isn’t a slow player, but he might try and become one. Littler has lost four of his last fifty matches and two of those were to Andy Boulting, another player not noted for his rapidity.
A slow pace of play might help Barney but he is right up against it here. His best hope is that Littler has had his head turned by all the press attention, and that may happen. For all the hype, I don’t see this as a great betting match, but I’ll tie myself to the Littler bandwagon and take him to win on the handicap.
2024 WC Darts Saturday Night Tip: 1 point Luke Littler -1.5 sets to win @ 1.80 generally available
Luke Humphries vs. Joe Cullen
Luke Humphries is a little lucky to still be in the tournament. He looked down and out against Pietreczko at 1-3, and it was 2-2 in the fifth leg when Humphries won the set with a 17 dart leg and went on to win the match.
Part of his problem was that he broke a point in a dart during the warmup and had to play with a different set of darts. The same make and model, but not his actual match darts. It got to him and he was thinking about it too much.
It may have been the barracking he was getting from the largely German crowd that took his mind off the darts and back on the game, but he got going and did just enough to win.
Fifteen In A Row
His winning run of fifteen matches continues and if there is one good thing about his performances so far, it is that he can still win with his B game, but at this level, that will not do very often. Humphries needs to have a good performance here or he is out.
Joe Cullen beat Ryan Searle 4-2 but it was no more than an OK performance. Searle missed thirty nine doubles and he really should have at least taken the match to a deciding set, if not won it. It was only Cullen’s fourth win in his last ten matches and he has had an easy ride so far.
Their H2H record is 5-5 and in 2023 1-1. Where Humphries has had the whip hand is on TV. He is 2-0 and both were thrashings. It was 4-0 at this year’s Grand Prix and 10-3 in last year’s players championship.
Luke Odds On
Humphries is the 1.36 favourite with Cullen 3.25. If Humphries can get back to his average game, he wins this but he has been right off it in the first two matches. Cullen has played two fourth round matches here and lost both, 3-4 and 1-4.
Humphries is the more accomplished player and his fourth round record is played four, won three. Interestingly, Humphries has never hit a ton plus average at Ally Pally across twenty matches played. He really could do with finding his scoring boots today.
We are heavily invested in Humphries already and I’m not interested in investing any more. No bet.
