2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips – DS
2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips
We had a good day last Saturday at Musselburgh and Cheltenham. Fidelio Vallis hacked up at Musselburgh, landing our e/w NAP at 14/1. Holmes St Georges looked like he might get up a furlong out but we had to settle for a place at 14s. Our NB My Bobby Dazzler was a neck away from winning at Cheltenham but again, we had to make do with 2nd at odds of 22/1. This Saturday Sandown has been postponed so it is pretty low grade stuff. Hopefully Dave Stevos’ can find a winner or two, his 2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday tips are below.
1.30 Wincanton – Handicap Chase (Class 3)
So is this what a ‘Premier’ race day looks like when one meeting is called off? With Sandown falling victim to the weather we are left with Wincanton and Newcastle and to be honest, the quality is underwhelming to say the least. Eight races on ITV, two class 3s and the rest class 4 & 5. Yippee!
First up at Wincanton is this 15.5f handicap hurdle and only six run. The ground is heavy and not one of the runners is bigger than 8/1. Ex French performer and heavy ground winner Prince Quali could go well on his second start for Robert Walford but he is only 13/2. With just two places on offer, this is an easy race to swerve. No bet.
2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips: No Bet
1.40 Newcastle – Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4)
I haven’t tipped up a horse in a class 4 novice hurdle for quite a while! At least we have a decent sized field of 14 here and the ground is a bit better than it is at Wincanton. It is currently described as soft up at Newcastle so conditions shouldn’t be overly attritional.
The 11/10 fav here is Two Auld Pals for Lucinda Russell and Patrick Wadge. A heavy ground winner on the level off 70, he made a promising start to his hurdling career when second at Bangor last month (16.5f hvy). His flat win came over 13f so he may want further than today’s trip of 17f over hurdles.
Bigger Odds
The one that makes a bit of appeal at bigger odds is Blazing Soldier. Trained by Mark Walford, this son of Soldier Of Fortune has run in three P2Ps. His best effort came on his second start when he finished 20L third behind Kerryhill and Let’s Go Joe at Necarne on testing ground.
The winner has since won a novice at Kelso and placed fourth in a G2. The runner up has also won a maiden under rules. Aughafatten was fourth, 6L behind Blazing Soldier, and he is 2/2 in bumpers. It is fair to say the form has worked out well and on the evidence of his last run, this drop in trip should suit.
Mark Walford also runs Mad Mode here but Jamie Hamilton is his main man and he is on board Blazing Soldier. Walford does well with his Newcastle raiders (10/59 with 18 top 4s) and three of his last four runners have finished 2nd. This horse lacks a recent run so fitness needs to be taken on trust but on the strength of that second P2P run, he is worth chancing for small stakes at 33/1.
2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips: Blazing Soldier e/w @ 33/1
2.05 Wincanton – Handicap Hurdle (Class 5)
Although he flopped on handicap debut at Lingfield last time, Clinton Lane might be worth persevering with now returned to the scene of his two best qualifying runs. This son of Linda’s Lad showed nothing in three runs on heavy/good last season but after a five month break, he showed enough to suggest he has a bad handicap in him in two runs over this C&D.
On his seasonal return he ran a lovely race to finish 3rd here on good ground, beat 11L behind the now 124 rated Classic King. He was only a length behind Beny Nahar Road who is now rated 118. It was a stronger race he ran in back here next time (17f sft) but again, he wasn’t disgraced in fifth behind Lowry’s Bar.
Learning Experience
Not much went to plan on his handicap debut when upped to 19f at Lingfield. The trip maybe stretched him but he should have learned plenty from that first experience in the hustle and bustle of a handicap hurdle.
The assessor dropped him to 92 from 94 after that effort and on his last two runs here, that should be workable. He may need more experience but at the prices, he is worth taking a chance on e/w at odds of 28/1.
2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips: Clinton Lane e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
2.15 Newcastle – Quinnbet Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4)
We have a 2/5 favourite here with Handstands for Pauling and Wood. A p2p winner on heavy and a last time out novice winner on good, the son of Getaway should be up to conceding 7lbs to his rivals. Thanks to his short price, the other nine are priced up at 12s or bigger but finding one that will be trying is easier said than done.
Maybe, and it is a big maybe, Kinder Kid can surprise with a big run. Tina Jackson trains this son of Milan and she forked out £46k for him almost two years ago after he ran third in an Irish P2P (gd/yld). He was 8L behind Support Act, since a bumper winner. 30L back in fourth was bumper, novice and G2 placed Idy Wood. The fifth, Dream Boy, won a maiden at Kelso last week.
Drop In Trip
Kinder Kid didn’t see the track for almost 600 days after that run. He ran in a Novice at this track over 22f last month on heavy and finished well beaten. However, he jumped nicely enough and travelled well up until 4f from home before presumably, the lack of a recent run took its toll. With that under his belt he should strip a lot fitter and this slight drop in trip should suit.
Now, the chances are that this horse may need another run or two and his trainer may just be getting him handicapped. On the other hand, Tina Jackson did spend quite a bit of money on this fella and she may have bigger plans in mind other than low grade handicaps. We’ll know more after this run but given his P2P form, I think it is worth chancing that Kinder Kid is there to do his best. If he does, he might just sneak a place at odds of 66/1.
2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips: Kinder Kid e/w @ 66/1
2.40 Wincanton – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Most bookies are paying three places for this race. Unfortunately, all bar one of them is priced up at 10/1 or shorter. The sole horse that is bigger is Honneur D’Ajonc but we have been stung by him before. No doubt he’ll probably go and hose up now but I just can’t have him on the back of his two poor runs this season. This will unfortunately have to be another no bet race.
2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.50 Newcastle – Handicap Chase (Class 5)
Another low grade affair, this time a class 5 handicap chase. Empty Nest has run well the last twice on good to soft and he looks a deserved favourite. It’ll be tougher ground today though and his record on soft does not inspire much confidence (U8P0).
Coolkill will surely be withdrawn after running poorly on Friday so that will leave a field of eight. Unfortunately, there’ll be a substantial rule 4 if he doesn’t run so bookmakers will probably shorten him up as much as they can before he gets taken out. Even so, I am still going to take a chance on Torosay on her second chase start.
Big Girl
This mare has a bit of size about her and she showed some potential over hurdles last season. She ran as though badly in need of the run on her return to action at Carlisle (20f sft) and Lucinda Russell decided to go chasing with her on her next start at Hexham (20f hvy).
Torosay was eventually pulled up in that contest but I thought she ran well to a point. Her jumping was pretty good and she was bang there until emptying on the uphill run after the second last fence. I’m hoping she wasn’t quite fully fit and on heavy ground, that was never likely to end well.
After three runs she should hopefully be close to full fitness now and this galloping track and slightly better ground could see her improve markedly on that last run. This is a poor race, she is down to a mark of 92 so at odds of 20/1, Torosay is the e/w selection.
2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips: Torosay e/w @ 20/1
3.15 Wincanton – Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
With a few firms paying three places, Hasty Parisian could be worth chancing e/w at 18/1. Trained by Anthony Charlton, this son of Champs Elysees was running a big race when falling two out on his last start over this trip on heavy ground at Newton Abbott. He got outpaced dropped back to 19f on soft last time but today’s conditions will suit better.
This 6yo is no superstar but he is generally a consistent sort. He handles all sorts of ground, his win coming on soft with multiple placed efforts on good/good to soft/heavy. His two completed runs on heavy ground saw him finish 3rd at Exeter (2L behind Astronomic View) and 4th over 20f off 115 in a Sandown handicap hurdle in March 2022.
Course Form
Another cause for optimism is that he has run well on both previous visits to Wincanton. He was fourth in a bumper and third behind Press Your Luck in a handicap off 111, both on good ground. His last win came off 107 and he races off 106 today so he is competitively handicapped and Harry Reed knows him well.
The aforementioned Astronomic View will likely be hard to beat for the Gardners but if Hasty Parisian can repeat the form he showed at Newton Abbott two runs ago (and doesn’t fall) he should outrun his odds of 18/1.
2024 Wincanton & Newcastle Saturday Tips: Hasty Parisian e/w @ 18/1 (3 places) NB
3.25 Newcastle – Handicap Hurdle (Class 5)
R Mike Smith and his son Ben teamed up for a heartwarming win at Ayr during the week with Follow Charlie. He was a 91 rated gelding earning his first win under rules and Donso Star has a pretty similar profile. This mare is having just her third handicap run and she could be very well suited by this step up in trip.
She is related to a couple of flat winners at up to 10f but she is by a proper staying sire in Sun Central. It has looked as though she has inherited some of his stamina on a couple of her runs. She was doing her best work at the finish in a bumper and maiden hurdle at Musselburgh over 16f earlier this year and it was a similar story at Perth on her debut in June 2022.
Needed The Run
She probably needed the run badly on her seasonal return at Musselburgh two weeks ago but that should sharpen her up nicely. With Ben Smith’s claim she is effectively in off 82 and on the form of her Musselburgh third last March she could be chucked in.
She was only a neck behind Artiste D’Ainay that day, now rated 109, and she was a nose in front of the now 117 rated Garde Des Champs. If she can repeat that form here she surely has every chance of hitting the frame so at 16/1, Donso Star is the e/w selection.
