2024 Ascot & Haydock Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Ascot & Haydock Saturday Preview
We landed a lovely winner last Sunday but it could have been so much better. Fromheretoeternity did show a bit more but then got very tired late on. Our 12/1 NAP Shallow River won bravely and then our 22/1 selection Conkwell Legend fell three out after cruising into contention and looking the most likely winner. We go again this weekend, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Ascot & Haydock Saturday tips below.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
There are a few decent betting heats to get stuck into this weekend. This isn’t one of them. Just five runners and four of them are single figure odds. Apple Away is odds on for Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox. Grey Dawning had her measure last time out but these are calmer waters. She is well treated by the conditions of this race and she probably deserves to be fav.
Anthony Honeyball’s Kilbeg King should not be discounted. He is rated a pound higher than the Russell horse but he has to concede 7lbs to her. However, he shaped pretty well behind the French machine at Kempton last time and if he repeated that he won’t be far away here.
Henry’s Friend and Brave Kingdom are stepping up from handicap company. The latter horse has a more interesting profile and he is completely unexposed at this trip. He’s just 4/1 though and it is hard to make a case for the outsider, The King Of Ryhope. We’ll keep the powder dry here, no bet.
2024 Ascot & Haydock Saturday tips: No bet
2.05 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2)
The ground is heavy at Wincanton for this 15f Grade 2 hurdle. Colonel Mustard is an old friend of the blog but I’m not too sure about these conditions for him. I’d imagine this will just be a run to blow away the cobwebs ahead of a repeat bid in the County Hurdle.
He’s the joint favourite of three, along with Nemean Lion and Rubaud. Nemean Lion is a nice horse with lots of ability but all of his best jumps form is on ground with good in the description. Rubaud is 0/5 on soft and has never run on heavy.
That leaves Guard Your Dreams and Goshen. The former horse is another one that has shown his best hurdling form on nicer ground than this. So, by a process of elimination, we are left with the one, the only, Goshen.
Nutter
This nutter is a law unto himself but he comes into this race in search of a hat-trick. One of those wins came on heavy in 2021 and he followed up in 2022 on soft. He didn’t run in it last season (good ground) so he is defending an unbeaten Wincanton record (2/2).
Gary Moore is sticking blinkers on the son of Authorized for the first time tomorrow. I find it hard to believe they haven’t tried them before but I suppose they had to try something after three poor runs this season.
I never thought the day would come when I’d be putting Goshen up for a race. However, given the doubts about the ground for most of his rivals, his record at Wincanton and his love of heavy conditions, his odds of 8/1 are too tempting to refuse. I think he’ll either win or be beaten out of sight so it makes sense to just back him on the nose. Hopefully he puts his best hoof forward!
2024 wincanton Saturday tips: Goshen win @ 8/1
2.25 Ascot – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
A decent pot of £50k for this 19.5f handicap hurdle and our first big field of the day. There are few trainers in better form than Alastair Ralph at the moment and he has a fascinating stable debutant here with Ostend.
Formerly trained by Peter Croke in Ireland, he hacked up on his penultimate run for that yard in a Kilbeggan maiden hurdle (19f gd/yld). The 120 rated Fameaftertheglory was 16.5L back in third so it was a decent piece of form.
Leopardstown 2nd
Ostend had previously finished second in a Leopardstown maiden, chasing home Parmenion, since placed in Graded company. On his sole handicap start at Ballinrobe (17f gd), his last Irish run, Ostend finished fifth, 11L behind Influential Lady off 119.
The UK handicapper has applied the usual ‘Irish Tax’ to the son of Marcel’s mark so he makes his UK/Stable debut off 126. Ralph has decided not to claim off him and the booking of Johnny Burke is a plus. He’s had a winner and two seconds on his last four rides for this yard and overall, he is 15/103 with 42 top 4 finishes.
In Form yard
Alastair Ralph’s runners in the last fortnight have produced form figures of P1422411. Welsh Charger was one of his winners off 114 so if the money comes for Ostend, he’s probably been working with him at home.
This isn’t one for lumping on because it is impossible to know how fit Ostend is but the trip, ground and track configuration look perfect for him and if he is ready to go on his first run for 207 days, he might outrun his odds of 40/1.
2024 Ascot & Haydock Saturday tips: Ostend e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
2.40 Haydock – Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2)
Another small field and another race on heavy ground. Will that suit the fav Botox Has? Possibly not. Butch won on heavy last time but that was a handicap and he’s only 5/2 today. Red Risk surely wants better ground but one that should enjoy the conditions is Sounds Russian, 2/2 on heavy ground.
Wakool won this last year but on nicer ground than this. I’m not sure he’ll relish this muck either. Sounds Russian would be my idea of the winner here but his odds of 11/2 are too short for the blog. So, this is going to be a no bet race.
2024 Ascot & Haydock Saturday tips: No Bet
3.00 Ascot – Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier)
With this being Iron Bridge’s second preference, we’ll likely have nine runners and a nice rule 4 here. The one I’ll take a chance on now he is back on better ground at three miles is the Henry Daly trained Rapper.
This 10yo shaped well enough at Cheltenham on his penultimate start when fourth behind Broadway Boy (26f sft) off 140. A month ago at Warwick he found 29f on soft too taxing at Warwick and he was pulled up.
He has now failed to complete on three of his last four starts but on his last start over 24f on good to soft on a right handed track, he ran a cracker at Sandown off 143. Previous to that he had hosed up at Cheltenham off 137 and he is back on the same mark for the first time since today.
Right Handed
Rapper has career form figures of 1212195 going right handed and one of those seconds came over this course and distance off 135. The ninth came here too but that was a seasonal reappearance run which was probably needed.
Henry Daly’s string is starting to hit form in the last week or so. He’s had two winners and a place from his last five runners, including a 16/1 winner at Sandown. Stan Sheppard is a jockey I like and he is 2/14 with six top 4 finishes when riding for Daly.
Now obviously, Rapper is 25/1 for a reason. He burst on his final run of last season and he had an irregular heartbeat when pulling up at Kelso in October. However, there was enough encouragement in his run at Cheltenham in December to make him of interest here and if he is going to bounce back, these conditions look ideal. So, at odds of 25/1, an e/w interest on Rapper is advised.
2024 Ascot & Haydock Saturday tips: Rapper e/w @ 25/1 nb
3.15 Haydock – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier)
This will be some slog on the forecast heavy ground. A trip of 28f awaits the field of 11 and at the prices, the one that appeals most is Highland Hunter. This 11yo is now in the care of Fergal O’Brien and he has returned from a near two year spell off the track this season.
On his first outing at Kelso (26f sft) he ran a blinder, beat 2L by Elvis Mail off 145. He then fell at The Chair in the Becher when a 7/1 shot and he probably ran as well as could be expected behind L’Homme Presse and Protektorat at Lingfield over an inadequate trip of 22f last time out.
Mudlover
With Tom Broughton taking off 7lbs, Highland Hunter effectively runs off 138 today. His last win came off 145 in December 2021 at Sandown (29f gd/sft) and he has an excellent record on heavy ground. Until his unseat at Aintree this season, his form figures on heavy read 11121. He has placed form at Haydock over timber and he stays this far.
Fergal O’Brien had a welcome winner at Sandown earlier this week and Tom Broughton has a good record when riding for him (14/52 21 top 4 finishes). O’Brien tends to do well at Ascot too, with over 50% of his runners finishing in the first four (11 winners/21 top 4s/59 runners).
If this 11yo is going to rediscover his spark these conditions look ideal so at odds of 18/1, Highland Hunter is the e/w selection.
2024 Ascot & Haydock Saturday tips: Highland Hunter e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) nap
3.36 Ascot – Ascot Chase (Grade 1)
Last, but not least, we have the feature of the day, the Grade 1 Ascot Chase. A bumper field of four will go to post, including England’s main Gold Cup hope L’Homme Presse. After a setback last year he returned to action with a satisfactory win at Lingfield, beating Protektorat by 2.25L. He was good but he did look a tad rusty over the fences and he ought to improve hugely with that outing under his belt.
Clearly, Venetia Williams must think he is still short of fitness to be running him back again this soon. Yes, it has been four weeks since Lingfield but it’ll be just four weeks until the Gold Cup from Saturday and all of the last twelve Gold Cup winners had a break of over 33 days since their last run before the big one.
She won’t want him to have a hard race today but that may be easier said than done. Pic D’Orhy is no mug and he likes it around here. Ahoy Senor ran his best race of the season at Cheltenham last time and he has Novice form with the Williams’ horse. If L’Homme Presse is at his best he wins, I just hope he doesn’t leave the Gold Cup behind him here. A no bet race but one that I’ll be watching with great interest.
