2024 F1 Ante-Post Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 F1 Ante-Post Betting preview. James has already posted a comprehensive season preview, you can read that here.

2024 F1 Ante-Post Betting Outlook

Now, the dust has settled on pre-season testing and it is time to try and draw up a pecking order for the season ahead.

The three day test was spectacularly uneventful. The track broke down more than the cars and at the end of it all, not a lot looks to have changed since the end of last season.

With stable regulations, a degree of design convergence was to be expected and only Red Bull, the trendsetters, have turned up with something different. So has the faster car in 2024 just got faster?

Caveats Apply

The usual caveats apply to testing. We do not know how much fuel was in the cars when they set their best times. Power units may not have been turned up to full power and so on. Headline times have to treated with some suspicion.

That said, we can still get a reasonable sense of the cars’ relative potential and the days of wild sandbagging are gone. No doubt most teams will have more to come for this weekend’s race, but we can have a decent stab at drawing up a pecking order as it stands after testing.

Positivity

It is fair to say that nearly all the teams had a good test. Most came away saying the new cars were a step forward. Everyone got a reasonable amount of lappage to gather the data required for the engineers to check on what works and what needs work.

The body language of the drivers and just how the cars behaved on track probably tells us more than the raw times, and I spent all three days watching every lap and watching all the drivers to try and get a handle of what we can expect in the early races.

The one universal point of agreement was that Red Bull remain the team to beat. All the drivers talked up their cars, with one or two exceptions, but ALL of them qualified it by saying that Red Bull were well ahead.

Red Bull

Much was being made of the Red Bull’s likeness to the Mercedes of 2022-23. That is pushing things a bit. The side pods are still there, but the air intakes are different and there is the capacity to shrink the size of the side pods. That is said to be the plan, at least for races in cooler climates. We may see a slimmer looking car in Japan is the rumour.

As far as testing went, it was all very straightforward. Perez had a small problem at one point, but they racked up 391 laps across the three days.

Fastest Car

The headline times had Ferrari faster on day 2 and 3, but tyre adjusted, it is fair to say they ended the test as the fastest car. By how much? That is still unknown, a conservative estimate would be 0.4 seconds but some say it is more like a second.

The body language was positive and they know they have a race winning car and indeed, another championship winning car. The car, like last year, looked very stable and it was on the pace from the start.

Max Verstappen said that the car’s performance was very strong and Perez said that he was able to make setup changes more effectively and he was very happy with his new car. Very much the team to beat.

Constructors Championship odds – 1.20

Drivers’ Championship odds

Max Verstappen – 1.17

Sergio Perez – 34.00

Ferrari

The new car is a definite improvement on the 2023 car. The SF23 was quick but had relatively poor race pace thanks to high tyre degradation.

It appears that the rate of degradation has been improved, their long run pace on the final day had the tyres holding up well, and Bahrain is very hard on tyres. The drivers also report that it is easier to drive and less sensitive to the wind, two other weaknesses in 2023.

Reliable

The two drivers completed 416 laps, bettered only by Haas in terms of mileage, so reliability looks very good, as it was across the board. Sainz set the fastest time of the test on day two and Leclerc was fastest on day three, but they did use the soft tyre, which Red Bull didn’t.

The soft tyre for the test will not be available for the race next week. What was the medium tyre for the test, the C3, will be the soft tyre for the race weekend.

Ferrari were already bringing new parts for the car on day three and everything was rosy in the Ferrari camp, but the drivers did say that they are not close to the pace of Red Bull. The second best car on the grid at the start of the 2024? Yes.

Constructors Championship Odds – 9.50

Drivers’ Championship odds

Charles Leclerc – 17.00

Carlos Sainz – 41.00

Mercedes

Now they have finally got with the ground effect program, the new Mercedes was a clear improvement, but they still lag behind Red Bull and Ferrari. Has Lewis Hamilton made a shrewd choice for 2025? It looks more and more like it.

The new Mercedes is said to be easier to drive, the unstable rear end has been tamed and it is much more driver friendly. It is just a bit slower than the top two, but Mercedes have a better platform to work from, rather than trying to push water uphill with their zero pod concept.

One Lap Pace

Their one lap pace does not look as competitive as their race pace, much like last year. Perhaps best backed post qualifying, from a punting perspective.

Mercedes have always excelled in terms of reliability and while their 361 laps was bettered by six teams, there is nothing to suggest that this car will be anything other than very reliable.

Long run pace was a strength last year and that looks to be the case once again. Their ultimate pace looks to be shy of the top two, however, but they are not a million miles off podium places.

Constructors Championship odds – 13.00

Drivers’ Championship odds

Lewis Hamilton – 17.00

George Russell – 34.00

McLaren

The first team that I thought were disappointing. Reliability wasn’t great and with 328 laps completed, they were 9th in terms of lappery. In terms of pace they were OK, but I was expecting them to be a clear second.

It now looks like they may only be fourth, albeit very close to Mercedes. There are some who say that McLaren were holding back, not showing their real pace, but that can be said about anyone. The body language of the drivers was just a bit flat.

Norris can be overly pessimistic, but as Daniel Ricciardo said, he is also very honest. The car is better in some areas but there are others where there is room to improve, according to Norris. Oscar Piastri was similar in his assessment of the car, saying there was more to do if they are to compete for podiums.

No Fast Corners

The Bahrain track is not a perfect test venue as it lacks any really fast, flowing comers, and that is where the McLaren excelled last year, so maybe we didn’t see the full potential of the car. That said, if you want to compete for Championships, you need a car that is fast across a range of tracks, not just the faster ones.

On a more positive note, the team is in a much better position than twelve months ago. Starting the season as the fourth best car may bode well, if they can have a similar development trajectory as they managed in 2023. Their fight would seem to be with Mercedes for fourth place, as it stands right now.

How the two teams develop will decide where they end up. In part one of the 2024 season preview, I said that McLaren would finish second to Red Bull at the end of the season. I would have to revise that down to third, maybe fourth, if Mercedes can out develop them.

Constructors Championship odds – 14.00

Drivers’ Championship odds

Lando Norris – 17.00

Oscar Piastri – 126.00

Visa Cash App RB

This could be the most improved car going into 2024. It is as close to last year’s Red Bull as the rules allow, and its pace is likely to be good enough to upset many of the other teams. They are not going to be winning races on merit and they shouldn’t be near a podium, but farming points?

They certainly look to be in the midfield mix. Visa Cash App RB were 6th for laps completed and everything was positive, without being earth shattering. A stronger driver line up would be better, but the team had found some improved form at the end of 2023 and with a stronger package to start with, I expect better results and more consistency.

Constructors Championship odds – 501.00

Drivers’ Championship odds

Daniel Ricciardo – 751.00

Yuki Tsunoda – 1501.00

Aston Martin

Aston Martin were the talk of the town this time last year, but this year? Not so much. The car is an improvement, but everyone has improved, it is the relative rate of improvement that counts.

Last year Aston Martin were flattered by the poor performance of Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren. They sort of filled a void. That void slowly disappeared as the other teams upped their games and Aston Marting finished fifth.

Stroll and Alonso managed a healthy 389 laps in testing and the car looked decent, easy to drive, stable, but not outstanding in terms of pace. They have improved straight line speed but they were losing out in the corners.

Body Language

The two drivers’ body language was a bit of a tell. Alonso did his best to be positive, but he has ruled out having any realistic chance of repeating his 3rd place in the opening race last year. Stroll was positively downbeat, if that is possible.

Alonso is good enough to score points and punch above the car’s ability, but Stroll may struggle in what is going to be a crowded midfield. Perhaps that is why he was less than effusive.

Alonso summed the 2024 seasons prospects up very well, “I think it is difficult to say today if we have a car capable of winning a race. I would say that after seeing Max and the Red Bull car this year, there’s less chance for everyone to win a race this year. But that’s how it is.”

Constructors Championship odds – 67.00

Drivers’ Championship odds

Fernando Alonso – 41.00

Lance Stroll – 1001.00

Stake F1

Only the steering wheel is the same as last year, say the team. An all new design after a dreadful 2023, and it does look like a decent improvement.

They were in the third division last season, but the new car at least gives them a chance to join the midfield, albeit a very crowded midfield. Points will not be easy, but they should be scoring more than in 2023.

Reliability was good and they covered 379 laps in testing, but their pace only looked like placing 7th in the pecking order.

A bit like Visa RB, a lacklustre driver line up is a weak link. Bottas has his moments and he is worth backing in low grip conditions, but Zhou has been a disappointment. I was impressed when he was in F2, but he seems to lack the aggression he had in the junior formula.

Constructors Championship odds – 1001.00

Drivers’ Championship odds

Valtteri Bottas – 2501.00

Guanyu Zhou – 2501.00

Alpine

Arguably the most disappointing team in testing, but that wasn’t unexpected. Alpine could be in for a very difficult season. When a driver finishes testing and says, ‘we need to be patient’, you know that the car is a bit of a dog.

Blind optimism that things will get better does not necessarily mean that they will. There is very little to commend the team as it stands.

Midfield

Their performance in testing suggests that they are going to be, at best the back of the midfield, at worst dropping back to keep Williams and Haas company in the third division. Only McLaren and Williams completed fewer laps and the Alpines’ pace was similarly uncompetitive.

Their two drivers sounded depressed about their prospects and Gasly has openly said that at 27 years of age, he wants to find a drive worthy of his talents. That doesn’t sound like he will want to extend his stay beyond the end of his contract at the end of the year.

Constructors Championship odds – 751.00

Drivers’ Championship odds

Pierre Gasly – 1501.00

Esteban Ocon – 1501.00

Williams

This will be an interesting season for Williams. They will be looking to improve on a relatively successful 2023. They finished seventh with 28 points, 92 points behind Alpine in sixth place.

Making a move up the Constructors table will be very difficult, but I would be surprised if Alpine do not fall back, perhaps into the clutches of Williams.

However, with most teams having improved on the their 2023 cars, Williams will be under more pressure from Stake F1 (Sauber) and more than likely overtaken by Visa RB. It could be that Williams have a better car, but only finish ninth.

No Car Launch

Williams didn’t have a car launch before testing started, because the car was not ready. Everything at Williams is being changed, renewed and upgraded at a rapid pace. They are trying to run before mastering the art of walking, and they have to.

The team have had money invested in them and they need to start showing better performance, more often. Last year’s car was OK, but a bit of a one trick pony, fast in a straight line, but F1 isn’t a drag race. They need more of an all-rounder.

Poor In Testing

Testing didn’t go well for Williams. With the car being hot off the press, it wasn’t very reliable and not very good at going round corners. We saw a lot of shots of a Williams running off the track as it was reluctant to turn in. They only managed 299 laps, the fewest of any team.

The car didn’t show much pace and they look better only than Haas, and the Haas was much more reliable. The team may once again be hampered by having something of a passenger in the second car. Sargeant needs make more of a contribution if Williams are to have any chance of retaining that seventh place.

Constructors Championship odds – 2001.00

Drivers’ Championship odds

Alex Albon – 1001.00

Logan Sargeant – 2501.00

Haas

The slowest team on the grid in 2023, at least over a race distance. The car showed very good qualifying pace at times, but the races were invariably very poor due to chronic tyre degradation.

At the pre-season test, it was no great surprise to see Haas just pounding round the track, long run after long run. They did very little performance testing, just working on that tyre deg.

They completed 441 laps, more than any other team. We know that the car is reliable but also that their times were slow. A lot of that will have been fuel, obviously, but it makes placing them hard.

Slow Car

Hulkenberg eventually did a performance run at the very end of the test, setting the 14th best time of the three day test. However the consensus is that the car remains slow, but if they have got on top of the degradation problem, that will have been a major success and it means they can work on developing the car, with whatever budget they have.

I suspect that Haas might be in better shape than they look. The new boss, Komatsu San, was very pleased with how the testing went. He said that they were able to achieve more than expected.

They are lacking downforce and high speed corners are a weakness, but the car is predictable and more driver friendly. Where they stack up in qualifying will tell us a lot more about their potential, but it isn’t going to be an easy season for them to get off the bottom of the pile.

Constructors Championship odds – 2001.00

Drivers’ Championship odds

Nico Hulkenberg – 2501.00

Kevin Magnussen – 2501.00

2024 F1 Ante-Post Betting Summary

Punt’s Pecking Order has Red Bull comfortably ahead, but maybe not by as much as some suggest, not just yet anyway. Ferrari will be in their rear view mirrors, or at least in Max Verstappen’s. If Perez continues in the same vein as 2023, we could see the Ferraris being the meat in a Red Bull sandwich.

The Mexican did OK in the test and actually set a better time than Verstappen. He says he was very happy with the car which is positive, as he hasn’t always found his car the easiest to drive.

Best Of The Rest

After the big two, we have McLaren and Mercedes. McLaren are not where they had hoped to be performance wise but they are confident that they have developments in the pipeline that will unlock more performance.

Mercedes now have a decent car to develop, which has not been the case for the last couple of years. It is not yet ready to be competing for podiums just yet but if they can get their development boots on, who knows?

Things then start to get interesting. We have Aston Martin, Visa RB and Stake F1 all looking to have point scoring potential. However, with the incredible reliability of these modern F1 cars, we should expect the top four teams to be regularly filling the top eight places come Sunday, so the ‘midfield’ really are fighting for scraps.

There will be some opportunities when the top teams have a problem, or we get a wet race or a fortuitous safety car deployment. In those occasions, watch out for the experience of Alonso paying dividends.

Wooden Spoon

The fight for the wooden spoon will be between Alpine, yes, they are that bad, Williams and Haas.

The odds for a Red Bull Constructors’ Championship win was 1.67 last year. That was a decent price and we took advantage. Sergio Perez was a whopping 7.00 to win ‘without Verstappen’ and we took advantage of that too. Christmas was sorted.

This season? Red Bull are a best price of 1.20 and Perez w/o Verstappen is just 2.37. Perez was 2.10 before the Bahrain test but he has been pushed out as the odds on the two Ferrari drivers have been slashed.

Money For Ferrari

Charles Leclerc was 10.00 pre-test, but now just 3.50. Carlos Sainz was 51.00, now into 13.00. That is fair enough given Ferrari’s pace in the test, but we have a 24 race season. It really is a marathon, not a sprint. Development through the season has never been more important. Who were the development champions of 2023? I would say McLaren, by a good margin.

This season the battle for second place in the Drivers’ Championship is interesting. Perez is favourite, an odds against favourite, because he is driving for the best team. He has a head start because he sits in the best car.

Last year he finished 51 points ahead of Lewis Hamilton in third place. That is a big margin, but he looked like he was going to blow it at one stage. If he loses his confidence again, it could be that there will be more drivers snapping at his heels and his points tally reduced as a result. He certainly isn’t the value he was this time last year.

2024 F1 Ante-Post Betting Tips

Verstappen is only 1.17 to be crowned World Champion and I can’t argue with the odds. It isn’t a betting proposition for me, but it is a better return than you’ll get at the bank. The same can be said about the 1.20 for Red Bull to win the Constructors Championship.

We do have a ‘without Verstappen’ market to consider, and hopefully the bookmakers continue that for the individual races, otherwise the outright betting markets could be a bit of a waste of time.

Drivers To Consider

There are a number of drivers to consider in the ‘without’ market. Perez is the obvious one, but his odds are only a fair reflection of his chances, maybe a touch generous, but not enough for me.

The Mexican should be best of the rest, he was 51 points clear of third place in 2023 after all, but he did lose out to Charles Leclerc in 2022 (by 3 points), the first year of the ground effect era. We can at least entertain the idea that second place will not automatically go to Perez.

Charles Leclerc managed it in 2022 and he is now just 3.50 to do it again. His teammate, Carlos Sainz, has finished behind Leclerc in the two years of this ground effect era. Now that he will be leaving Ferrari at the end of the season, he will be kept out of the loop to some degree and his chances of beating Leclerc are likely to be smaller.

The same scenario applies to Lewis Hamilton. Will it be that George Russell is Mercedes’ ‘favoured’ driver this season? He did finish ahead of Hamilton in 2022, so it can be done.

Developing McLaren

McLaren may be starting a little on the back foot, but their rate of development in 2023 was very impressive. The team say they are planning another season of intensive development and with all their new toys at the factory, perhaps they can better what they achieved last year.

I do rate them highly in terms of potential. Norris scored 207 points last season, but he only manged to score twelve points across the first eight races due to the real 2023 car not being launched until the Austrian GP.

From that point onwards, Norris scored 193 points in the remaining twelve race weekends (13.78 per race). That compared well with Sergio Perez rate of 12.95 across his 22 races. Had McLaren started with their actual 2023 car, we may have not got paid out on Perez! Well played McLaren.

Piastri Still Learning

Of course McLaren also have Oscar Piastri on board. He only scored 97 points last season and from Austria onwards his rate of scoring was just 6.64 per race. He is only into his second season of F1 and he is still learning. Norris should be the bigger points scorer at McLaren. That said, Piastri’s odds of 71.00 w/o Verstappen are a bit too big.

Despite a disappointing pre-season test, I have faith that McLaren are on the right track to return to winning races and eventually competing for championships. Probably not this year, but I do expect them to be at the very least giving Ferrari a run for their money for second place in 2024.

2024 F1 Ante-Post Betting Tip: 1 point e/w (1/3 the odds 1-2) Lando Norris to win the Drivers’ Championship ‘without Verstappen’ @ 7.50 with Boylesports, BET365, Skybet, Pokerstars, Betfair

Pokerstars/Betfair also have a Constructors’ Championship ‘without Red Bull’ market. Ferrari are the 2.38 favourites, McLaren 2.75 and Mercedes 3.00. I largely have to agree with those odds and will leave the constructors alone, at least for now.

The range of interesting ante post markets is disappointing. There are plenty of silly request a bet multiples if you like fancy accumulators, but I don’t.

Seasonal match bets are very thin on the ground and largely teammate vs. teammate and they are not usually of too much interest, but there is one to consider.

Match Bets

With Lewis Hamilton walking away from Mercedes at the end of the year, it would make sense if the team were to try and help George Russell to finish ahead of the deserter.

Hamilton will have to be kept in the dark regarding technological information which may extend to giving new parts to Russell only, or at least giving them to Russell first. Russell could be given preferential race strategy in terms of pit stops, and small things like that can make a difference, least of all pissing Lewis off.

Say Mercedes come up with a new floor, for example. They may wish to put it on Russell’s car first, maybe putting it on Hamilton’s car a race or two later. In order to conduct back to back performance checks, of course.

Their H2H score at Mercedes is 1-1 and while Hamilton is the better driver, Russell is no mug second driver, and he is staying put to lead the team from 2025 onwards.

2024 F1 Ante-Post Betting Tip: 2 points George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton in the 2024 season @ 2.20 with Unibet

The same firm, and the only one I can find to have made any sort of effort with their seasonal bets, have a few match ups which contain drivers from different teams.

It is hard to get any reasonable sized bets on with them, but hey ho, that’s betting in 2024. One of the most watched sports in the world and firms like Ladbrokes just have two markets. Pathetic. You can have six million markets on the second half of a soccer match, but F1, not interested.

Stake F1 Improving

Stake F1 do look to have come up with a significantly improved car for 2024. They only scored 16 points last year, and while it will be tricky for them to score too many more, they should score more.

Bottas scored just ten points in 2023 but he did score at four races. Haas scored 12 points and finished last. They still have a slow car and it may be very difficult for them to score many more, without a big dollop of luck.

Nico Hulkenberg scored nine points but they were thanks to a lucky seventh place in a crazy Australian GP, and a 6th place in a wet sprint race in Austria. He got lucky, and still finished behind Bottas.

2024 F1 Ante-Post Betting Tip: 2 points Valtteri Bottas to beat Nico Hulkenberg in the 2024 season @ 1.67 with Unibet

The first race of this marathon season is this Saturday, not the usual Sunday. Free practice starts on Thursday so the race preview will be published on Wednesday. Hopefully we have a few more markets to play in than is the case for the seasonal bets.

-JamesPunt