2024 UK Open Darts Betting Preview & Tips – JP
2024 UK Open Darts Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 UK Open Darts Betting Preview.
FA Cup Of Darts
The UK Open is known as the FA Cup of Darts as there is no set draw as such, with a random draw made after each round, from round four onwards.
The field is made up of 158 players (Adrian Lewis and Adam Hunt withdrew). The first round involves players ranked from 97th to 128th on the PDC’s order of merit, the top eight Development Tour players, the top 8 Challenge Tour players and sixteen ‘amateur’ qualifiers.
The 32 winners will play players ranked 65th to 96th on the PDC order of merit in the second round, and the winners then play players ranked 33rd to 64th in the third round. The first three rounds are played in a short, best of eleven leg format.
The remaining 32 winners are then drawn to play the top 32 on the PDC order of merit and the matches in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds are played as best of nineteen legs.
Random Draw
The random draw mimics the FA Cup, hence the nickname, and you can get the two highest ranked players meeting well before the final. The idea is to open up the chances of a surprise winner and sometimes it does.
Last year Andrew Gilding beat MVG in the final, in 2022 Danny Noppert beat Michael Smith and Nathan Aspinall bet Rob Cross in 2019 at 126.00, all first time Major winners. But, more often than not, the final is played by two of the top ranked players.
Four Places E/W
It is more common to get outsiders reaching the semi-finals, and the e/w betting extends to the top four. Last year saw Adam Gawlas reach the semi-finals, in 2021 Keane Barry and Willy O’Connor reached the last four. In the last ten years we have had players like Robert Owen, Dave Pallet, Alan Norris, Jelle Klassen and Andrew Gilding (twice) reaching the semis at big odds.
This isn’t my favourite tournament. The fact that there are 128 matches played in the first day of the tournament means that keeping track of what is going on is very hard. Most matches are not televised and it is not until Saturday when things become manageable with ‘just’ 20 matches to get through.
Fun Starts On Sunday
Sunday is watchable, with the quarter finals in the afternoon and semi-finals and final in the evening. Some people love it, and I was very happy when Nathan Aspinall won in 2019, but it is just a bit too much, too quickly.
However, somebody will win it and four players will make the semi-final, so I’ll take a stab at getting a return.
I will not go through all 158 players, for obvious reasons, but I will highlight some form players who may have a good run. It is obvious that the top 32 players in the rankings have a better chance as they have fewer matches to win.
The 2024 UK Open Main Contenders
Gary Anderson
In great form, winning PC2 and he was runner up in PC3. He has won eight of his last ten matches and is averaging 103.64 in 2024. Anderson won this in 2018, the year when it was played without a crowd due to cold weather freezing the wastewater system at the venue.
He was runner up in 2010 but has also gone out at the fourth round stage seven times. Anderson has been playing very well on the floor for quite some time now, but his stage performances have not been disappointing for a while now. Odds – 11.00.
Luke Humphries
Cool Hand is struggling to find his form since winning so much in 2023, and the World Championship in early January of 2024. He is still playing well but is finding winning hard.
His 2024 average is 100.80 and he has hit six ton plus averages from his last ten matches, but only won four. He is playing in the Premier League, a tough school, but losing hurts confidence. Humphries was runner up in 2021. Odds 9.00.
Gerwyn Price
A tournament specialist, Price is still struggling to get back to title winning ways. Price is averaging 97.58 in 2024 but he continues to be a bit too inconsistent. Usually very good, but there is a poor match in him and it is holding him back.
He has lost four of his last ten and he did lose two of them, rather than just being beaten by the better player. Price is a two time UK Open runner up, a four time semi-finalist and has only failed to reach the quarter finals once in the last seven years. Price tends to get an easier ride in Minehead, with more Welsh supporters making the trip across the Severn. Odds – 11.00.
Michael van Gerwen
A three time UK Open winner and in great form. His win rate in 2024 is 81%, much more like vintage MVG. He is averaging 97.72 and looks to be enjoying his darts more than he has for a couple of years.
The Luke Littler effect? Perhaps. He does seem to raise his game against the youngster and that is giving his other performances a boost. He is just looking that bit hungrier than in recent years. Odds – 7.00.
Chris Dobey
Hollywood picked up a first TV title last year, played in the Premier League and is an improved player as a result. He is not a prolific title winner and there is still an inconsistency in his game, which is the reason why, but is this format the one that could help him win his first ranking major? Well, if Gilding and Noppert can win it, why not Dobey?
He is in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches, his 2024 average is 97.23 and his win rate 70% so far in 2024. If the draw is kind when he has his duff match, he can have a good run. He is getting used to reaching major quarter finals and semi-finals, so he is knocking on the right doors. – Odds 26.00.
Stephen Bunting
Finished 2023 with a Grand Slam semi-final, a Players Championship quarter final and he started 2024 by winning The Masters. That finally got the PDC TV title monkey off his back and his form deserved it.
However, since that big win, Bunting has played just five matches and lost four. That is not ideal preparation for this frantic weekend of darts. I wouldn’t rule him out, but there are better looking bets. Odds 21.00.
Ryan Searle
In my Masters preview, I mentioned that Searle was a player to follow early in the season, and so he has proven to be. His win rate in 2024 is 85% and he has won PC3 and was runner up in PC1 and PC2. He has won ten of his last eleven matches and is averaging 97.20. The big question is, can take that floor form to the stage?
It has to be said that he is a better player on the floor. He has only made one Major final, but it was at this venue. He was runner up to Peter Wright in the 2021 Players Championship finals. Heavy Metal has made two other major quarter finals, but for a player of his abilities, I expect more.
This is the closest major venue to Searle’s home, so he can sleep in his own bed and have plenty of local support. Can he finally do it on the big stage? Odds – 26.00.
Damon Heta
Another player who is better on the floor but he is in great form and could have a good run. His win rate in 2024 is 76% and he picked up another floor title two weeks ago, at a very tasty 51.00.
Heta is averaging 97.61 in 2024, with a win rate of 76%. He reached three ranking major quarter finals in 2023, so his stage form is improving. Like Searle, Heta has won ten of his last eleven matches and has reached seven major quarter finals. That he hasn’t won one is the worry, but surely, he will at some point? Odds – 51.00.
Luke Littler
Picked up his first ranking senior PDC title by winning PC1 last month. He had already won his first World Series title in January and he continues to hold his own in the Premier League.
There is a bit of inconsistency creeping in. He has lost four of his last ten matches and when he isn’t smashing in huge averages, he is vulnerable. This is a major which Littler has already played in. He was a Rileys qualifier last year, started in the first round and went out in the fourth round, losing to eventual semi-finalist, Adam Gawlas, 8-10. Odds – 7.50.
Callan Rydz
His form does tend to go up and down like a yoyo, but right now he is on an upward trajectory. His win rate in 2024 is 73% and he has won eight of his last ten matches. Consistency is not fantastic but a win is a win. Being ranked 33rd means he joins at the third round stage, but there are worse 101.00 shots around. Odds 101.00.
Gian van Veen
Lost out to Luke Littler in the World Youth championship and his form took a dip late last year. He looks to be getting his A game back, winning a Development Tour title last weekend. Gian hit three consecutive ton plus averages in the most recent players championship event.
He played in this last year, hit three ton plus averages, but lost out to Jim Williams in the third round. Van Veen reached a major semi-final in 2023 and he is going to win plenty of titles. Odds -81.00
2024 UK Open Outright Selections
I have gone for five selections, for smallish stakes.
