2024 Bahrain GP Qualifying Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Bahrain GP Qualifying Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Bahrain GP Qualifying preview. He has already posted two comprehensive previews for the F1 season, part 1 is here and part 2 is here. Get his thoughts on the first qualifying session of the 2024 F1 season below.
2024 Bahrain GP Qualifying Update
The most interesting session of the season awaits. We finally get to see who is where when the fuel gets pumped out (and any sandbags) for qualifying.
The final qualifying session is usually a good pointer, but it may not be this time. Bahrain sees the final practice held in daylight, but qualifying is after sunset. Yesterday the track temperature for FP1 (in the daylight) was 35 degrees, for FP2 under the floodlights, it dropped to 21 degrees.
That is, literally, night and day. The tyres are very sensitive to the track temperature, so we should expect things to be somewhat different in qualifying.
Are Mercedes Back?
People were getting very excited after yesterdays practice which saw the best of the Red Bulls only 6th fastest. Lewis Hamilton was fastest, Russell second. A Mercedes revival?
Today’s session was a final chance to set the car up for the rest of the weekend, parc ferme rules apply from qualifying onwards, so while the track conditions will change in qualifying, the cars should largely be set by now. Changes can be made before qualifying, but it is unlikely that any major changes will be made at this stage.
It was clear that the track was evolving throughout the FP3 session, getting faster as it went on. More rubber goes down to give more grip, and the track temperature dropped five degrees to 29 by the end of the session.
Let’s take a brief look at the teams going into qualifying.
Team By Team Outlook
Red Bull
Interesting that they didn’t flap after looking to be off the pace yesterday. They were pretty sure that others (Mercedes) were running with higher power unit modes. Today, they ran the hard tyre for the first forty minutes. When they put on the softs it was a Red Bull 1-2. Ominous.
They ended up third and eighth, but the track was still improving after they did their flying laps. The team expect qualifying to be very competitive. As for the race, they look very strong.
Ferrari
FP1 & FP2 went as expected for Ferrari. There or thereabouts. Up near the front as they were in FP3. Sainz topped the time sheets, setting his time after the Red Bulls. Sainz was just 0.141 ahead of Alonso. Very much in the mix for qualifying. Do not rule out Sainz, but Leclerc usually leads the charge.
Mercedes
Some of the air came out of their ballon today. Hamilton was twelfth and Russell sixth. The question is, will the cooler track temperatures move Mercedes back up the order, and if so how far?
Russell was 0.366 off Sainz in FP3 and I would say that they are close enough to be up at the sharp end of the grid, but I also think that they have shown more of their hand than some others.
They were working on one lap pace yesterday and again today, but when the others did their performance runs, Mercedes fell back. A second row might be the limit.
McLaren
It has not been perfect for McLaren and they are hard to place. Norris has been a bit ragged, making mistakes, but he was still fifth fastest and just under 0.30 off the Ferrari.
They seem to be handling all the track conditions well and the second row looks realistic. They were good on the long runs as well and they look like podium contenders.
Aston Martin
Alonso was second fastest in FP3 and he was third fastest in under the lights in FP2, so he can do it in all conditions. Stroll was comfortably slower in all three sessions and he looks to be marginal to make Q3. Alonso, in the pole position mix.
VISA RB
First and fourth in FP1 but that was because they ran the softs. Ricciardo’s twelfth in FP2 and eleventh in FP3 is more representative of their pace. Making Q3 is possible, but it very close in the midfield.
Stake F1
Disappointing so far. The team were not happy with their one lap pace yesterday and it didn’t improve today. Getting out of Q1 looks to be a challenge.
Alpine
Fair to say Alpine are as bad as expected. It could be an all Alpine back row.
Williams
Albon’s talent should get him into Q2, but Q3 looks out of reach. Sargeant will do well to get out of Q1.
Haas
Could Hulkenberg pull off another of his qualifying specials? The team have worked almost exclusively on long run pace and say that their tyre degradation problems have been improved. I thought that may cost them one lap pace, but The Hulk has been seventh and ninth in the last two sessions.
Magnussen lacks the one lap pace of Hulkenberg, but he will have been reasonably happy to finish fourteenth in the last two sessions. To get both cars into Q2 looks very possible, and maybe Hulkenberg could nick tenth place with a perfect lap. Impressive so far.
The pecking order is still unclear. Just 0.63 seconds covered the top 12 in FP3 and seven different teams. Clearly, execution of the laps in qualifying is going to be crucial. Drivers that can really wring the neck of their car could get the glory.
Alonso, Leclerc and Verstappen can do just that. Hamilton as well, but the Merc might just lack the ultimate pace over one lap.
Qualifying bets
Some bookmakers are offering e/w the top three at 1/5 the odds. That says a lot about how close it appears to be.
Verstappen is the 2.25 favourite, Leclerc 4.50, Sainz 8.00, Hamilton 11.00 (win only), Alonso 15.00 and Norris 17.00.
The one that stands out to me is Alonso. He has been up with the pace in all three sessions and he is feeling very ‘connected to the car’. That means he can thrash it over one lap. I expected him to be second favourite. The other that looks too big is Norris.
Alonso was a disappointing fifth in qualifying last year, having been fastest by 0.005 faster than Verstappen in FP3, fastest in FP2 and second fastest in FP1. The same thing may happen, but he still looks a value bet.
Norris made the front row three times in 2023 and while the McLaren is not quite sorted yet, he is capable of something special, but also of making a mistake.
I’ll have two selections and hope we can get one to pay out.
2024 Bahrain GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w Fernando Alonso to be the fastest qualifier @ 15.00 with Ladbrokes (1-2 only)
2024 Bahrain GP Qualifying Tip: 0.5 point e/w Lando Norris to be fastest qualifier @ 17.00 with Skybet, Betvictor (e/w 1-3)
I was hoping to see odds against Hulkenberg to reach Q3 but the only price I have had time to find is 1.73, and in a tight market that is not great.
One match bet I like is Ricciardo to beat Magnussen. The Haas is decent but Magnussen rarely gets it together in qualifying. Ricciardo should be knocking on the Q3 door, Magnussen happy to get out of Q1.
