2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tips – DS
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tips
We landed another place at Naas on Sunday to continue our half decent start to 2024. Our NB Rebel Gold ran a blinder behind Ferny Hollow to finish second, advised 14/1. Optional Mix started out the back and more or less stayed there and our NAP Cato’s Revenge was moving into the race ominously when unseating at the third last. Hopefully we can get a winner on the board this weekend, 2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tips are below.
1.20 Newbury – Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)
I usually love these veterans’ races but not this one. The only two in here at big prices are Amateur and Cyclop. The former horse is having his first run after a wind op which is enough to put me off him. Cyclop has shown absolutely zilch on his last three starts and the 13yo is hard to fancy on what will be bottomless ground, even off what looks a dangerous mark. Fortescue can win this if he is in the mood but his odds are too short for the blog. No bet.
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tip: No Bet
1.42 Kelso – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Premier)
Nine have been declared for this £30k handicap. Up at Kelso the ground is currently good to soft but with rain forecast, it’ll probably be soft by the time this race starts. A fair few of these would prefer the rain to stay away but the outsider, Foster’sisland, will relish softer conditions.
Now, like Amateur, this horse has had a wind op since his last run. However, it must have been a very minor procedure because he ran just four weeks ago. That run at Wetherby saw him finishing a remote fifth but the return to Kelso and the prospect of soft ground could spark a revival.
This 9yo son of Trans Island has run at Kelso once before. That resulted in an easy win off a mark of 105 under Emma Smith Chaston. She has done the steering for his last four wins, the last one coming at Bangor in March of last year off a mark of 124. He’s in off the same mark today and given the size of the pot, surely he’ll be doing his best. The fact he has had a wind op does temper my enthusiasm but at odds of 20/1, he is just about worth the risk.
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Foster’sisland e/w @ 20/1
1.55 Newbury – Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier)
Nine runners and not one of them bigger than 12/1. We have backed Gustavian already this season and Anthony Honeyball’s charge didn’t let us down, finishing second on heavy ground at Aintree. However, his last three runs have not been up to much and he unseated early on last time out at Kempton.
That being said, it is hard to ignore his career form figures on heavy ground (212211U22). He’s now down to a mark of 131, a pound below his last winning mark and 4lbs lower than he was when running well at Aintree. Rex Dingle knows him well, Anthony Honeyball landed a big pot last week with Forward Plan so at odds of 12/1, Gustavian is the each way selection.
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Gustavian e/w @ 12/1
2.17 Kelso – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
A cracking race considering how close we are to Cheltenham. A dozen are due to go to post for this 18f Grade 2 Novice and I am taking a chance on Bertie’s Ballet. This horse came onto my radar before he last ran at Musselburgh. I was going to put him up for that race but his price collapsed so I ended up swerving him. He ended up running a cracker behind Panjari, finishing 8 lengths back in second.
That was just his third run over timber and you could see he was still lacking a bit of experience. His jumping was a bit sketchy early and he was never able to really get to the winner, who was always in a good position. The handicapper actually dropped him 2lbs for that run to 116 but I think this lad is a much better horse than that lowly rating.
Solid Form
On his first outing over timber at Wetherby (16f hvy) he was only 3L behind Favour And Fortune, now rated 138 and a G1 runner up. Bertie was getting 5lbs from that rival but it was still an excellent debut over hurdles. Sayer’s charge then pitched up in a Novice at Haydock and beat Norman Fletcher, again on heavy ground.
His sole previous run at Kelso saw him land a bumper on soft and I am sure this step up in trip is going to help him massively. He gets 5lbs from Jango Baie here, who finished 2.75L ahead of Favour And Fortune in an Aintree G1. Connections have stated that the EBF Final at Sandown is the main aim for this lad but he’ll need a pretty big hike in the weights to get in. That should mean he is trying here and the more rain that falls, the better. At odds of 25/1, Bertie’s Ballet is the e/w selection.
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Bertie’s Ballet e/w @ 25/1 NB (4 places)
2.35 Doncaster – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Just like at Kelso, the ground is presently good to soft at Donny. However, there is rain forecast before and during racing to I would imagine the ground will deteriorate. My old friend Tommy’s Oscar pitches up here which suggests he won’t be taking up his Grand Annual entry.
To be honest, he has been disappointing this season but his yard was under a cloud and they got a welcome winner on the board eleven days ago. Sean Quinlan is 1/1 on him, he is back on board and Tommy’s is 2/3 at Doncaster. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if this fella bounces back to form and if he does, he should win.
Nicely Handicapped
The only one at a half decent price that appeals is Numitor. Trained by Heather Main, this 10yo is looking nicely handicapped off 132. This is his first run since pulling up in last season’s Topham but he has won when fresh before so the absence isn’t too big of a worry.
He was placed off 135 at Newbury on soft ground just under a year ago and he won by 23L off 131 on his last trip to Doncaster (19f sft). This race is 3F shorter but if Harry Bannister can get this usual front runner into a rhythm early, he could get a few of these out of their comfort zones. Soft/good to soft is fine, he’s on a competitive mark so at 11/1, Numitor is the e/w selection.
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Numitor e/w @ 11/1 (3 places)
2.50 Kelso – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Class 2)
The one that looks most overpriced here at odds of 16/1 is Cracking Rhapsody. Trained by Ewan Whillans, who almost landed us a nice winner in the Eider, this unexposed 5yo is a horse on the up. He’s still a novice, having made his hurdling debut in October, and he beat Idy Wood on his second try over timber, a horse we backed in the G2 Dovecote last weekend.
His last two runs have come in handicaps over this C&D. The first one saw him finish a decent second behind Ginger Mail with The Churchill Lad 9L behind him back in third. A couple of weeks ago he turned that form around back at the same track, beating Jungle Jack in a close finish (Ginger Mail 3L back in third).
Cracking Rhapsody still looked a bit green when he came under pressure last time and while he only just got up, I think he had more left in the tank. The assessor only raised him 4lbs to 119 for that run and on that Idy Wood form, he still looks well handicapped. The way he has been campaigned by his Scottish yard suggests this has been the plan and the forecast rain won’t inconvenience him. At odds of 16/1, he looks a ‘cracking’ e/w bet.
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 16/1 (6 places) NAP
3.10 Doncaster – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed)
A really tricky puzzle. The market leaders will probably dominate but I thought Pinot Rouge was a massive eyecatcher on her rules debut in a Novice at Newcastle (20f hvy). Given how Susan Corbett’s mare finished off her race, she might be worth taking a chance on upped to three miles on just her second run over hurdles.
This 6yo mare was a fortunate winner of an Irish P2P in 2022. Her reserve wasn’t met at the sales (unsold £38k) and that Newcastle run was the first time she was sighted since. In that race she was held up and two out, she must have been at least 15 to 20L behind the leaders. Even with a bad mistake at the second last she flew home and she was only 1.5L behind the first two at the line.
This looks an ambitious move on just her second rules outing but she is a half sister to Advantage Point, a very useful hurdler (rated 129). She isn’t nailed on to stay 3 miles on breeding but she looked like a stayer at Newcastle and she comes into this race with her trainer in top form (221 last three runners).
Maybe this will be too much too soon but it looks a pretty weak race for the grade and at 25/1, hopefully Pinot Rouge can stay on late to pick up some black type.
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Pinot Rouge e/w @ 25/1
3.25 Kelso – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed)
Just seven runners and a race I am happy to swerve on such a busy day. Monbeg Genius should be hard to beat but his odds reflect that. No bet.
2024 Kelso & Doncaster Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.40 Doncaster – Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (Class 2)
On his last start at 3 miles on soft ground Half Shot beat Inis Oirr by 7L off 122 at Musselburgh. He was carrying 5lbs more than that rival and he has since hacked up in the Edinburgh National and is now rated 133.
Iain Jardine’s 10yo son of Yeats has run twice since then. He was beat 17L over an inadequate 20f off 129 at Musselburgh on New Year’s Day. Then last time he was beat 19L back up to 23.5f at Musselburgh off 128 and the handicapper has dropped him 2lbs for that run.
Back Up In Trip
On the evidence of his win vs Inis Oirr, the step up to 26f here is going to suit. He’s finished second on both previous tries at the distance at Kelso and while he has yet to run at Doncaster, the flat track should really suit him.
Henry Brooke gets the leg up for the first time (6/57 with 18 top 4s for Jardine) and he is an excellent front running jockey. I think this 10yo has the ability to win a nice pot like this at some stage, hopefully it is today. At odds of 16/1, Half Shot is the e/w selection, fingers crossed he makes a bold bid from the front.
