2024 Premier League Night 8 Betting Preview – JP
2024 Premier League Night 8 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 8 preview.
Double Up
A rare 100% win rate for last week’s PL betting. Two wins yielded a 2.33 point profit and the running tally is now down to -1.81 points. Night 8 comes from Dublin and marks the midpoint of the league stage.
Luke Humphries vs. Peter Wright
The darting equivalent of Arsenal vs. Sheffield Utd, as top of the table Luke Humphries faces bottom player, Peter Wright.
Snakebite finally got off the mark last week by beating Gerwyn Price 6-5. He is still 15 points behind Luke Humphries, who won his second night in a row to go top of the table.
Cool Hand didn’t travel to Germany for this week’s Players Championship events but he is in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches and his seasonal average is now 100.93.
Peter Wright is only averaging 92.56 in 2024 and he has won six of his last ten matches. He did go to Germany earlier in the week, reaching the quarter final of PC5 but losing in the first round on Tuesday.
His consistency isn’t the best but his scoring is good at times. He averaged 98.8 against Humphries in last week’s semi-final but lost 1-6.
H2H Close
Their H2H record is 6-5 to Wright but in 2024 it is 2-0 to Humphries, and he is the 1.20 favourite to make it 3-0. Wright played well last week and still got thumped 1-6, that suggests that we should expect something similar.
They have played six best of eleven leg matches before and four have required less than 9.5 legs.
Luke Humphries is just 1.73 with a -2.5 leg handicap and we can’t rule out Wright winning four legs, as he did on Night 2, losing 4-6 to Humphries who averaged 103.6 to Wright’s 94.1. No bet.
2024 Premier League Night 8 Tip: No Bet
Nathan Aspinall vs. Rob Cross
This is a big match, with both players on eleven points. Aspinall has made three finals over the last four PL Nights and last week he opened up with a 102 average and a 6-5 win over Cross.
The Asp’s overall form sees six wins from his last ten matches and he has played well on the whole, but there have been three sub 90 averages in his last five. He still isn’t banker material, but he has beaten Cross three times already in this year’s PL.
Cross will be sick of playing Aspinall in Premier Leagues. They have played five times over the years and Cross has won just one and lost the last four.
Consistent Cross
Voltage, like Aspinall, has won six of his last ten matches and he continues to play at a high and consistent level. It is a surprise to see that his 2024 win rate is just 50%. He is failing to cash in on good performances. He has only lost two quarter final matches so far, one being the 5-6 loss to Aspinall last week. The other was a 5-6 loss to Luke Littler.
Rob Cross is the 1.70 favourite and Aspinall 2.25. A little odd given Aspinall is 3-0 against him in 2024 and beat him just seven days ago.
50% Win Rate
Yes, Cross is playing good darts and is more consistent than Aspinall, but that 50% 2024 win rate cannot be ignored. Aspinall is a confidence player. When he is confident, he is a far better player. When he loses that confidence, he really can struggle.
The odds on Aspinall make some appeal, but perhaps the safer bet is on total legs. The match could go either way, even if Aspinall is being a little underrated. Cross is playing with such consistency that he should win plenty of legs. Another 6-5 would be no surprise.
2024 Premier League Night 8 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 1.91 generally available
Michael van Gerwen vs. Gerwyn Price
MVG has been dethroned from the top of the table. His shoulder injury has seen him lose his last three opening matches, very much in contrast to winning three nights in a row before that. The question has to be, is he fit to play this week? The answer seems to be, maybe.
Van Gerwen had an injection in the affected shoulder before last week’s PL. He lost 2-6 to Luke Littler, but MVG did average 110.94. He then travelled to Germany to play in the Players Championship events.
Mighty Mike reached the last sixteen on Monday, but lost 4-6 to Peter Wright. MVG only averaged 88.92 in that match. He again reached the last sixteen stage on Tuesday, but lost 2-6 to Daryl Gurney. MVG only averaged 89.68 in that match.
Sub 90s
Van Gerwen has won six of his last ten matches, but while he has hit three ton plus averages in those ten, there have been two sub 90s. Otherwise he has been mid 90s. His A game is still very good, but on the whole he is playing below his seasonal average of 97.22.
Gerwyn Price is in danger of falling into last place. He is only on five points, just three ahead of Wright in last place. Does he care? I don’t think he really does. Price generally underperforms in the Premier League, it just isn’t his thing.
Price has a seasonal average of 98.60, and in the PL it is 98.64. His 2024 win rate is 55%, in the PL it is 33%. He just struggles to win matches and loses interest. The Iceman has now lost four opening matches in a row and overall, he has lost seven of his last ten matches. He is scoring very well, but he has got a losing habit.
Out Of Sorts
We have here an out of sorts MVG, playing below his best most of the time, facing a player who is scoring very well, but losing a lot of matches. Their H2H record is 32-14 to Van Gerwen and he won their only meeting in this year’s PL 6-4.
MVG averaged 107 in that match and it is hard to see him reaching those heights. That said, he averaged 110.94 last week.
This has to be a good chance for Price to take advantage if MVG is still struggling. It could be that the Dutchman has had another injection to help him tonight, but we just don’t know. This has no bet written all over it.
2024 Premier League Night 8 Tip: No Bet
Luke Littler vs. Michael Smith
Littler gave the Players Championship events a swerve, a chance to have a few days off was more important. He has won eight of his last ten matches and in the PL he sits in third place, but he has lost half of his fourteen matches and is yet to get a nightly win.
That he finds winning PL matches more difficult should be no surprise as he is facing the elite players week in and week out.
Michael Smith is very hard to pin down. He has won five of his last ten matches and that reflects a lack of consistency. His seasonal average is just 94.0 and that is not what it should be.
He can still hit the high notes but there are too many matches where he just doesn’t fire. He will need his A game tonight. Littler’s seasonal average is 99.11 and he is consistently around that mark.
Smith Edges H2H
Their H2H record is 2-1 to Smith, all PL matches. Smith has done well to win two. Littler’s averages have been 105, 107 and 105. Smith’s 98, 101 and 98, so both players have played above their seasonal averages in all three matches. They have hit 28 maximums across thirty legs played.
Littler is the 1.40 favourite, with Smith the 3.10 outsider. The odds look about right to me. Littler is just playing at a higher level and more consistently. So far, Smith has been able to raise his game against Littler which will give him so hope of picking up another win, but Littler is the deserved favourite.
The bookies are saying the match should last around nine legs. Two of their previous meetings have required a decider, the other was a 6-2 win for Littler. Their matches have produced very nearly a 180 per leg, hopefully they can bounce off each other again and we get a high scoring affair.
