2024 Australian GP Qualifying Update & Tips – JP
2024 Australian GP Qualifying Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Australian GP qualifying preview. You can check out his outright betting preview here.
2024 Australian GP Qualifying Update
It was an interesting first day of free practice, and one that hints that we may have a proper battle for pole position. Of course, on Friday the teams don’t have the power units running at full power and some will have more fuel on board than others etc. It is dangerous to read too much into the raw times, but there are some clues.
Red Bull
Verstappen was second in both sessions. He required a change of floor after hitting a kerb hard in FP1 and he missed twenty minutes of FP2 as a result. Red Bull are very good at improving the car overnight if they have had any problems, so I would expect Verstappen to be on the front row at the very least.
Perez was outside the top 5 in both sessions, but he was a lot further back in Bahrain at this stage, and qualified fifth. It does look like he will fail to get on the front row once again.
Verstappen described the day as ‘messy’ which suggests that there is more to come. Perez seemed reasonably relaxed about the car’s performance, but acknowledged that Ferrari are a threat this weekend.
Ferrari
Looking very good, it must be said. Leclerc was fastest in FP2 and 0.381 ahead of Verstappen. The not fully fit Carlos Sainz underlined the car’s pace by ending up third.
Fuel loads and engine modes vary etc, but so far this season, Ferrari have improved from free practice to qualifying, so I doubt they were flattering themselves by running flat out. Given his talents over a single lap, Leclerc should be considered as a live threat for a pole position.
Aston Martin
Stroll was faster than Alonso in both sessions, which is unusual, but the team have been faster in practice than in qualifying in the previous two races. The car is good on low fuel but their race pace is not so good. They could be looking at a third row.
Alonso was another driver who needed a new floor, having damaged his on the kerbs. He lost some track time as a result, which may explain him being slower than Stroll. Their long run pace wasn’t so good, slower than the big two and McLaren
McLaren
Norris was fastest in FP1, ninth in FP2, which isn’t a great help. Piastri was tenth and seventh. All I can say is that they will be in Q3 and probably ahead of Mercedes. Their long run pace was very good and McLaren could yet pull something out of the hat, but more so on Sunday than Saturday.
Mercedes
The car looked a real handful in both sessions. Both drivers had off track excursions and it was that loose rear end again. George Russell was making a better job of things, coming third and sixth, but he will do well to get close to that in qualifying.
Hamilton looks like he’d rather be somewhere else… like Ferrari. He has already started changing set ups and getting lost, just like in Jeddah. Hamilton has zero confidence in the car and that does not bode well for his weekend/season.
Visa RB
Tsunoda made Q3 in Jeddah and only missed out in Bahrain. He was fifth and tenth in practice, was faster than Ricciardo again and with Mercedes struggling, he could crash the Q3 party once again.
The team were the happiest of them all after the two sessions. Everything went to plan, both drivers had good sessions and they feel they have a good car for the rest of the weekend.
Williams
Firmly in the midfield. Albon totalled his car in FP1, didn’t take part in FP2 and has now been given Logan Sargeant’s car for the rest of the weekend. The team are so low on parts that they don’t have a spare chassis to build up.
It is a no brainer really. Sargeant just isn’t as quick as Albon, and on a high attrition track, there could be a point up for grabs and Albon is more likely to get it.
Kick F1
Looking competitive so far in midfield, in FP2 at least, but they have done the same in the first two races and then failed to get out of Q1. Likely to have been a bit light on fuel.
Bottas says that Q3 is a possibility and they have brought some upgrades (a new front wing) to improve performance. Talking a good game, but I remain to be convinced that there is any great pace in the car.
Haas
Not a good start for my pick to be best of the second division cars. Unless they were purely doing long runs on heavy fuel, and they have tended to do just that in practice, the car doesn’t look to have much pace here. I assume they will be a bit quicker tomorrow but they look unlikely to get both cars out of Q1.
Their long run pace was better, but still a tenth off the Visa RB. Magnussen was quite upbeat and thinks they have the pace to threaten Q3. I didn’t see it, but he was in the car.
The team said that they did struggle to get the most out of the soft compound, which explains the lack of a headline time. They will need to try and address that overnight for qualifying, but their race pace looks decent.
Alpine
Still looking to be the weakest team on the track and condemned to going out in Q1.
Summary
While previewing qualifying before the final free practice session is not ideal, it does look like we have a real chance of a close battle for pole.
Ferrari did get pole positions last year and the Red Bull is not quite as dominant over one flying lap as they are over a race distance. Charles Leclerc is a one lap specialist and given a competitive car, he can stick it on pole. I expect Red Bull to be quicker tomorrow than they were today, but Ferrari will be too.
In the Ground Effect era, Leclerc was on pole here in 2022 and last year it was Max. They have been 1-2 in the opening two qualifying sessions of the season, with Max fairly comfortably clear in the end. More of the same tomorrow, or could Leclerc get his first pole of the year?
Verstappen is the 1.85 favourite to get his third straight pole position of the season, Leclerc 2.40 to get his first. There was just enough encouragement from the performance of the Ferrari to have a small bet on the latter.
2024 Australian GP qualifying tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.40 with Betfair, Boylesports, Pokerstars
The match betting is a bit thin on the ground, but there is a double worth backing with Unibet. Russell is 2-0 vs. Hamilton in 2024 and he was in a different formula today. Hamilton looks totally deflated and when his head is down, he is easy to oppose.
At Visa RB, Yuki Tsunoda is 2-0 vs. Ricciardo and he was faster in both sessions today. The Aussie was outqualified by Tsunoda more often than not last season. He just seems to be faster than the declining Ricciardo, who has already had the hurry up form Red Bulls Helmut Marko.
