2024 Australian GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Australian GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Australian GP Raceday preview. He has already landed a nice bet in qualifying, let’s hope for more of the same on Sunday morning.
2024 Australian GP Raceday Update
It wasn’t to be for Leclerc in qualifying and it was Verstappen who nailed a strong lap to take pole position by 0.272 from the other Ferrari of Carlos Sainz. Sergio Perez received a three place grid penalty and now starts sixth.
We are heading into the unknown on raceday as the drivers will be using the hard tyres for the first time. A two stopper may be the way to go, but as we get so many safety cars around here, there should be opportunities for a fortuitous stop. The tyres have been graining quite a bit and they will need to be well managed during the race.
Recent history around this track says that only drivers in the top three on the grid need apply for the position of race winner and since the track was reprofiled and resurfaced, the race has been won from pole. It will not be a surprise to see that trend continue.
Team By Team
Red Bull
Verstappen starts as the 1.17 favourite and while the Ferrari was only a tenth or so slower on the long runs, they were slower. He is hard to oppose.
Perez has been very accomplished in making up places in the race in the opening two races, but he may find it tougher here. Overtaking is difficult and he doesn’t have that big a performance advantage over the two Ferraris. The two McLarens could be tricky to pass as well, depending on their straight line performance.
Ferrari
It was a disappointing effort from Leclerc in the end. Going fastest in FP3 had set him up nicely but he just wasn’t on it in qualifying. Sainz ended up second and but for a mistake into T9, he would have likely finished in pole position.
The car’s long run pace looks to be around a tenth slower than Red Bull and their top speed lower. Sainz isn’t fully fit and he admits that this may well impact on his race performance. Hopefully for our Leclerc bet, the two Ferrari cars can swap places.
McLaren
Third quickest car but the slowest car on the straights. That makes them vulnerable to attack from the faster Ferrari and Red Bull. It would be a surprise if Norris can hang on to third or for Piastri to delight the home fans.
Mercedes
Russell continues to show Hamilton the way in 2024. He isn’t having the same struggles with the car, but it is not a good car. A tiny sweet spot (again) but Russell is confident that he can make progress in the race.
Their long run pace was only fifth best on Friday. Their straight line speed wasn’t great either and it is hard to see him making any great inroads on faster cars ahead of him.
Aston Martin
Very similar to Mercedes in terms of performance characteristics. They haven’t shown great race pace in the opening two races but a double points finish is on the cards.
Visa RB
Tsunoda continues to impress, or is at least being made to look good by the underperforming Riccardo. The Japanese driver made Q3 for the second race in a row. However, he hasn’t been able to convert good grid positions into points so far.
Their race pace is around two tenths off the first division teams and he will need some attrition to finish in the top 10.
Williams
Albon put his borrowed car into twelfth place, just as he did in Jeddah. He was thirteenth in Bahrain and that is where the car is. Long run pace on Friday was hard to judge as Albon didn’t take part and Sargeant’s spin meant he didn’t really set a proper long run. Like all the second division teams, he needs attrition to improve on his grid position.
KICK F1
Bottas managed thirteenth place, Zhou was last after losing part of his new front wing. Thirteenth is better than Bottas has managed so far, but their long run pace was better only than Alpine on Friday.
Haas
The car has good straight line speed and it will be interesting to see if they can use that to move up the order.
Alpine
At least they got one car into Q2. Ocon starts fifteenth and he did make up four places in Jeddah, but their long run pace is the slowest of all.
2024 Australian GP Raceday Selections
It does look like another case of who will come second. Perez has done so in the opening two races, but his penalty means he starts further back than he has done so far. His tyre management skills may pay dividends in the race if degradation is a big issue.
Sainz has to be a doubt with his lack of fitness. It will be a long race for him and tired drivers make more mistakes. He hasn’t had much luck here and has not scored a point in the last three Australian GPs. Both McLarens could find it difficult to cope with a lack of straight line speed. There are four DRS zones and both Leclerc and Perez have faster cars.
Podium For Perez?
It does look like Leclerc and Perez who should join Verstappen on the podium. Racing here is rarely straightforward. The attrition rate is usually a factor as are safety cars and maybe a red flag can mix things up.
The best place to be is at the front and Perez’ penalty has put him back to the third row and the first few corners here are very hairy on the opening lap. He did drive a great race here last year, coming from the very back to finish fifth, so he knows what he has to do. The car’s performance gives him the advantage and he gets the nod for me.
2024 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Sergio Perez to win ‘without Verstappen’ @ 2.60 with Ladbrokes
For a longer priced bet for the race, I’ll go with Hulkenberg to win Ladbrokes Group 3. This is a six driver group including Ricciardo, Magnussen, Ocon, Gasly, Zhou and Hulkenberg.
Ricciardo is the 5.00 favourite, despite only having Zhou behind him on the grid. The Visa RB has been the quickest of the second division cars so far this weekend. Their long run pace was the quickest of the second division cars on Friday, but Haas where very close. Alpine and Kick were a couple of tenths off.
Riccardo has not been driving well since his return to racing in the middle of last season. He just isn’t the driver he was a few years ago and his time is nearly up. He made a mistake in qualifying yesterday and he had an ugly spin in Jeddah.
Safe Pair Of Hands
Hulkenberg, on the other hand, is a safe pair of hands. He tends to get the car home and his record in this race is very good. In his last seven starts here, Hulkenberg has only failed to finish in the top 10 once, and that was an eleventh place.
He is very unlikely to finish in the points today, but he doesn’t have to. He just needs to make up a few places.
The Haas is quicker than the other cars in the group, except Ricciardo’s Visa RB. This is a big group, but it looks like a three way fight between the two Haas drivers and Ricciardo. If Hulkenberg can draw on his many good races here, he might just do it, and the odds are decent.
