2024 All Weather Championships Preview & Tips – DS
2024 All Weather Championships Preview
This is going to be one of the busiest weekends of the season. Dave Stevos has been in top form recently, landing a nice place on Sunday at Naas and a couple of winners at Newbury on Saturday. Hopefully he can keep his good spell rolling at Newcastle and Lingfield, check out his 2024 All Weather Championships preview and tips below.
1.53 Newcastle – All Weather Championships Marathon (Class 2)
First up, the stayers. Thirteen are due to go to post for this 16f test and it looks pretty open. Spartan Army is on a four timer after racking up wins at Lingfield, Southwell and back at Lingfield. He’s the sort that just seems to do enough to win and the handicapper may not have his measure yet.
At a bigger price, Duty Of Care looks interesting. Jamie Osborne’s son of Kingman has won twice over this distance at Kempton, off 83 and 87. He’s in off 91 today but on the evidence of his last two outings, he is more than capable of winning off that mark.
Wide Trips
At Kempton in February he was only beat 4.5L into second, running on well after being taken wide. Last time at Lingfield it looked like he wasn’t off a yard. Slow away, kept wide, went for home far too early and faded in the home straight.
He won on his only previous visit to Newcastle for his former trainer Micheal Stoute and David Egan gets the leg up for the first time. If he can navigate a smoother trip than Shane Kelly has the last twice, Duty Of Care looks capable of rewarding e/w support at odds of 18/1.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: Duty Of Care e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NB
2.05 Lingfield – All Weather Vase Middle Distance (Class 3)
At odds of 12/1 it might be worth taking a chance on Walhaan here. This Irish raider is trained by Ciaran Murphy and this will only be his second ever UK runner. An 8yo son of Dark Angel, this dual purpose sort comes here on the back of a lovely prep at Dundalk (10.5f) earlier this month.
Ridden by Joey Sheridan, he broke, went to the front and stayed there to score by 0.5L off 80. He’s in off 83 today and on the form of his close fifth behind Yokkell back in December, he could still have a little bit of wriggle room off his current mark.
In that race he finished 1.5L behind the John McConnell trained winner. He was conceding 11lbs to Yokkell and she has since gone on to win twice and she is now rated 14lbs higher.
While he made all last time, Walhaan is versatile tactically. There’s a few in here that like to be up there early so Sheridan may well drop him in from stall 9, just like Scott McCullagh did when winning on him back in November. If he gets the gaps at the right times, hopefully Walhaan can run into the places at odds of 12/1.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: Walhaan e/w @ 12/1 (4 places)
2.25 Newcastle – All Weather 3yo Championship (Class 2)
There’s a lot of early pace in this 6f race so it could set up for a finisher off a strong gallop. If Andrew Breslin rides Bazball the same way that Sam James did when she ran over this C&D in November, she could stay on late to land the e/w money.
In that race James sat and suffered as the race developed a couple of furlongs out. He threaded his way through the field and she was only beat 0.75L at the finish off her mark of 75. Last time out, again over this C&D, Hollie Doyle had to switch her wide to make her challenge and she ran on really well again, beat just 1.5L off 78. Sommelier, the 4/1 fav here, was only 1L ahead of her and Bazball is 5lbs better off when Breslin’s claim is considered.
Karl Burke also runs Media Shooter here and he’s the mount of stable jockey Clifford Lee. However, he would be unable to do the weight to ride Bazball so I wouldn’t read too much into the jockey bookings. If she can repeat the level of form she showed here last time, Bazball can outrun her odds of 12/1.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: Bazball e/w @ 12/1 (4 places)
2.40 Lingfield – All Weather Vase Mile (Class 3)
If Darwell Lion can repeat the form he showed when fourth here back in January off 86, surely he can go close for William Carson and Ruth Carr. This horse loves it at Lingfield. Four runs here have yielded two wins and two fourths and he is now 5lbs lower than when beating Dutch Decoy over a mile here in January 2022.
Just over a year ago he was only beaten 2.75L over C&D off 90 and he was running off 86 when 3.75L behind Fantastic Fox on his last visit. A couple of poor efforts followed that run but he shaped like he was coming back to himself when beat just 1.5L behind Billy Mill in a decent handicap at Newcastle last time out over 7f.
Stepping back up to a mile should suit and he is in off a mark of just 80 here. Another big positive is the form of his yard. Ruth Carr has had four winners in the last fortnight and since March 20th her form figures read 252313242181. A degree of luck will be required due to his draw on the inside but if he gets the rub of the green, hopefully Darwell Lion can sneak into the frame at odds of 18/1.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: Darwell Lion e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)
3.00 Newcastle – Fillies And Mares Championship (Class 2)
On the form of Hodd’s Girl’s last UK visit, she has to be worth a second look here at 18/1. She ran a cracker to finish third in a Listed race at Chelmsford (7f), just failing to land the place money by a head (only seven ran). She was edged out for second by Queen Aminatu (rated 105) and she was only 1.75L behind the 106 rated winner White Moonlight.
7f is her ideal distance and her last start at the trip resulted in a handicap win at Dundalk off 91. She is in off 95 here with Adam Caffrey taking off a handy 3lbs. This mare ran in this race last year and finished third with Aramis Grey a half length in front of her in second. They were racing off level weights, with Caffrey’s claim Hodd’s Girl is 3lbs better off here.
This daughter of Zebedee is ultra consistent and can usually be relied upon to run her race. She has admittedly been on the go a long time but she seems to thrive on her racing. She deserves to get her head in front in a race of this nature, hopefully today is the day at odds of 18/1.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: Hodd’s Girl e/w @ 18/1
3.15 Lingfield – All Weather Vase Marathon (Class 3)
He’s been a deeply frustrating horse to follow but if Bascule can put it all together today, he is more than capable of winning this. Richard Hughes has his horses in excellent fettle and this horse might be familiar to long time followers of the blog. We backed him in the 2022 Cesarewitch but it wasn’t George Rooke’s finest hour.
It is hard to believe he hasn’t managed to win a race since scoring off 87 at Chelmsford back in 2021. Maybe he was just badly handicapped but the assessor has relented and he is now down to a mark a pound lower than he was for his last win. With young Ethan Jones claiming 7lbs, he looks very competitively weighted.
Given his strike rate, clearly this lad isn’t a lump job but he’s shaped very nicely the last twice at Kempton and he has form figures of 21 at Lingfield. His odds of 10/1 are just about big enough to warrant an e/w bet.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: Bascule e/w @ 10/1 (4 places)
3.35 Newcastle – All Weather Sprint (Class 2)
We backed Misty Grey in a Listed race at Wolverhampton last time (7f). It was his second start for David O’Meara and he ran a huge race, finishing 1.25L second behind Nine Tenths (rated 100). The 113 rated Shouldvebeenaring was 0.75L back in third and while he needed the run, I think Misty Grey ran to 100+.
He is in off a mark of 96 today. That’s 10lbs lower than he was for his last win in a Chelmsford handicap back in July 2022. That win came over 6f and it was 7f when he was beaten 1.25L here by Billy Mill earlier this month.
It is pretty remarkable that this horse has only run over 6f twice since that Chelmsford win. The first of those saw him well beaten on the turf at Ripon but his last start at 6f on the all-weather saw him beat 0.75L in a class 2 conditions race at Kempton. He was conceding 1lb to the winner Mischief Magic who was then rated 111. If Misty Grey can repeat that, surely he can hit the frame today at odds of 20/1.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: Misty Grey e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
3.50 Lingfield – All Weather Vase Sprint (Class 3)
Another wide open race but a very tricky one. Ado McGuinness runs two and you couldn’t rule out either of them. Johnny Murtagh also runs Daamberdiplomat and a case can easily be made for him. The booking of Dusty Foley catches the eye on Prince Of Zenda but it remains to be seen if he is still ahead of the handicapper. It is tough to make a strong case for any of the outsiders here so it makes sense to sit this one out. No bet.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: No Bet
4.10 Newcastle – All Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance (Class 2)
A quality race full of horses that won last time out. Oh So Grand is the 4/1 fav and she has won her last three. She won off 79 over this C&D and then followed up with a couple of wins at Lingfield over 10f off 85 and 89. The handicapper has taken a dim view and she is now up to 97 so she’ll need to improve again.
Penzance is on a five timer. He has won his last four, the sequence starting off 73 at Chelmsford back in December. Another win there followed off 79, he then won here over 10f off 89 and then at Lingfield last month he produced a career best to win off 92. Another career best will be required for him to defy his new mark of 98.
Murray Raider
Elegant Man is around 7/1 for Adrian Murray and Amo. This son of Arrogate is extremely well bred and he has earned a mark of 108 after three runs. Last time at Dundalk (10f) he hacked up in a decent race, beating the 99 and 104 rated Tyson Fury and Freescape. The handicapper hasn’t taken any chances but it is hard to know where this colt’s ceiling lies. He literally could be anything.
One horse in here that owes us nothing is Onesmoothoperator. We backed him at fancy odds to win the November handicap here back in November over a trip of 12f. That came off 89 and he has run well in three of his four starts since off his revised rating of 92.
This horse stays further than 10f but he has won here over that distance. He’ll be suited by a strongly run race and with the likes of Freescape and Penzance in the field, he should get a decent pace to aim at. His C&D form figures read 13223, hopefully he can add another 3, 2, or 1 to that sequence at odds of 28/1.
2024 All Weather Championships Tip: Onesmoothoperator e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
4.40 Newcastle – All Weather Championships Mile (Class 2)
I put Greatgadian up for the Lincoln but connections have opted to come here instead. He’s been running really well this Winter on the all weather and he’s been knocking on the door here on his last two starts. He has no weight, Aidan Keely again takes off 3lbs and surely it has to be significant that Varian has decided to run in this instead of at Doncaster. Odds of 12/1 are more than acceptable and I am keeping the faith. Back Greatgadian e/w.
