2024 Premier League Night 9 Betting Preview – JP
2024 Premier League Night 9 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 9 preview.
Hat Trick For Humphries
It was a 0.09 point loss on our two picks in Night 8 to take the PL tally to -1.90 points. The night was won by Luke Humphries. That was his third nightly win in a row and he is trying to become the first player to win four in a row under the Nightly Tournament format started. MVG won three in a row in Night 2 to 4, but he hasn’t won a match since.
Belfast is the scene for tonight’s action. Expect some coke fuelled punch ups in the crowd, if last year was anything to go by.
Luke Humphries vs. Luke Littler
The best match on the card to open proceedings. Humphries is on fire, winning nine of his last ten matches and hitting nine ton plus averages. Littler is a bit of a slouch by comparison, winning just seven of his last nine matches, with six ton plus averages. I suspect we might get a bit of a humdinger here.
Littler is 3-1 against Humphries and 2-0 in the PL. Those two matches came on Night 1 and Night 2. That was when Humphries was a little under his best form post World Championship win. He averaged 93.26 and 103.86 respectively. The Night 2 match went to a deciding leg, the first was 6-2 win for Littler.
Ton Plus Likely
We have to expect Humphries to average something like the 103.86 he did on Night 2, and he didn’t win that one. It is a bit too early to say, but does Littler have a bit of a hold on Humphries? As I say, it is too early to say, but if Littler wins this one a pattern is starting to emerge. Every player has a bogeyman.
Humphries is one of the very few players, maybe the only player, who is going to start as the odds on favourite against Littler. He is the 1.67 favourite, despite Littler having the better H2H.
Two of their three best of eleven leg matches have required a deciding leg and in all three, Littler has been the better player on the doubles. Overall in the PL, it is Humphries who is checking out at 43%, Littler 35%, but it is Humphries who has underperformed against Littler.
Is that a sign that Littler is niggling him, or just that he wasn’t at his best when they played nearly two months ago?
2024 Premier League Night 9 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 1.95 with Hills
2024 Premier League Night 9 Tip: 0.5 point Littler to win 6-5 @ 7.50 with Hills, Betfair, Unibet
Michael Smith vs. Michael van Gerwen
Much has been said about MVG’s recent form. When he isn’t playing well, the doom mongers come out to pencil an obituary. He isn’t the player he was in 2015 -2019, his seasonal win rate has fallen every year for the last seven years and looks like falling again in 2024.
However, he is still one of the top three or four players in the world. Humphries and Littler are better, Price can be, but outside of that? His main ‘problem’ is that the standard of the opposition is better.
The fact that he has been playing with a shoulder problem has made things worse in the short term, but so long as it is not a long term problem, he will still be very near the top of the game come the end of the year.
Hard To Assess
It is very hard to assess Van Gerwen’s form right now as we don’t know how fit he is. He has lost four of his last ten matches, but it is the lack of consistency which is the worry. His seasonal average is 97.19 and he has played above that in five of his last ten. He has hit two ton plus averages, but three sub 93s. You really do not know what to expect from him.
Michael Smith has started to show some good form lately. He decided to enjoy his year as World Champion and let his game slip. He has found getting it back quite difficult.
Smith has won seven of his last ten matches but like MVG, his consistency is lacking. His seasonal average is 94.59, well shy of the really top players these days. In his last ten he has bettered that seasonal average seven times. He is heading the right way but is still not the player he was in 2021.
MVG Leads H2H
Their H2H record is 44-17 to MVG and in 2024, 3-1. They have played a lot of PL matches in this ‘new’ format, fourteen to be precise. Of those fourteen, MVG has won nine, Smith five. Thirteen of those matches were best of eleven legs and eleven required over 9.5 legs.
I am not entirely comfortable betting on a match where one of the players has a fitness doubt, but the past form strongly suggests that we should get a reasonably close match.
Van Gerwen is the 1.63 favourite, Smith 2.38. Given doubts over MVG’s fitness, there could be some value in backing Smith. However the better bet looks to be backing over 9.5 legs.
2024 Premier League Night 9 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 1.95 with Betfred
Nathan Aspinall vs. Gerwyn Price
Aspinall has lost five of his last ten matches and that sums up his lack of consistency very nicely. He has hit three ton plus averages and three sub 90 averages. After coming up dry in the first three nights of the PL, Aspinall has picked up 13 points from the last five nights, winning eight matches.
Gerwyn Price is playing much more consistently than Aspinall but has lost six of his last ten matches. He has won just four of his twelve PL matches.
That suggests that he isn’t playing well but his PL average is 98.78, the fourth best and better than Aspinall’s 95.54. He is just struggling to win matches. His seasonal win rate is 55%, despite a seasonal average of 98.43. He isn’t doing a lot wrong.
Their H2H record is 18-11 to Price, and he has won their last six in a row. They have met just once in this year’s PL and that was a 6-4 win for Price. In this format, they have played seven times, with Price winning five. None of their PL matches have gone to a deciding leg.
2024 Premier League Night 9 Tip: 1 point Gerwyn Price -1.5 legs to win @ 2.00 with Hills, Livescorebet
Rob Cross vs. Peter Wright
Peter Wright remains rooted to the bottom of the table. He has lost eight of his nine PL matches and while his floor form has shown signs of improving, his stage form remains a struggle. He has played 19 stage matches in 2024 and lost 12.
Things have improved a little as he has won five of his last ten stage matches, but in the PL, he is playing the best players. There are signs of life, but Wright remains hard to back.
Rob Cross needs a win here. His steady approach of the first six weeks saw just one pointless night, that run was followed by two quarter final defeats and saw him drop to sixth place. Cross is still just two points outside the top four, so there is no panic, yet. A loss to the weakest player in the league would very likely start the alarm bells ringing.
Playing Well But Losing
Cross has a seasonal average of 97.8, but a win rate of just 49%. That is hard to understand. His last ten matches have seen just two sub 97 averages, and one of them was 96.33. It is hard to knock his scoring, but he has lost five of his last ten. Two of his defeats saw Cross average 108. All he can do is be patient.
Rob Cross is the 1.40 favourite, Wright 3.10. Their H2H record is 18-13 to Cross and he has won their last five in a row, including a 6-3 win in Cardiff on Night 1.
Cross is just 1.67 with a -1.5 leg handicap and it is hard to find any great value in this match. We have backed Cross to make the playoffs and that is enough interest in the match for me. No bet.
