2024 Japanese GP Outright Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Japanese GP Outright Betting preview. He landed a few nice winners in Australia a couple of weeks ago, hopefully more of the same to come.

2024 Japanese GP Preview – The Track

Widely regarded as one of, if not the, best tracks in the World, Suzuka is a Honda owed former test track. As such, it is a demanding track for both car and driver. It is a high speed, figure of eight layout featuring a full range of corners (18) and two straights. It rewards the best car above all else and any weakness will be exposed at some point around the lap.

To underline the fact that the track rewards the best car, since the start of the modern turbo hybrid cars in 2014, Mercedes had six consecutive wins, and after missing two years due to the pandemic, Red Bull have won the last two. Mercedes enjoyed three 1-2 finishes and Red Bull one. Sebastian Vettel was the only non-Mercedes or Red Bull driver to qualify on pole position.

Lower Temperatures

This year’s race comes much earlier in the calendar than it usually does. Temperatures will be lower, and we should be aware that this may have some effect on how the various teams cope with tyre degradation.

Mercedes prefer cooler conditions whereas McLaren prefer warmer conditions. Red Bull can be a little slow to heat up their tyres, which usually bodes well for good tyre longevity in the race, but it could make things harder in qualifying. More about the weather forecast later.

Hardest Tyre Compounds

Pirelli will be bringing their hardest compounds as the high speed nature of the track and abrasive tarmac is very hard on the tyres. A two stop strategy has been the norm here, but there is some speculation that a one stop may be possible due to the lower temperatures.

The attrition rate here is hard to pin down. Since 2014 the average retirement rate is 2.125, but five races saw only one or less. There were two races with five drivers not classified, including 2023, so it can be very easy on cars, or very hard.

The pole position driver has won five of the last eight races here, with two wins from second on the grid and one from third.

2024 Japanese GP: Team-by-Team and Driver Records

Red Bull

Suffered a rare bad race weekend in Australia. Verstappen qualified on pole but in the race he very quickly slowed down and was forced to retire with a brake fire.

Teammate Perez had qualified third but received a grid penalty for blocking. He was making progress in the race but some debris on the racetrack got stuck in his underfloor. The resulting loss of downforce meant he could make no further progress and ended up finishing fifth.

Red Bull remain on top of the Constructors’ table, but now just four points clear of Ferrari. Verstappen remains as leader of the Drivers’ Championship, three points clear of Leclerc.

Max Hunting A Hat Trick

Verstappen has won the last two Japanese GPs, both from pole position, and Red Bull had a 1-2 in 2022. He has had three other podium finishes. Perez has had one podium but he has had five other top ten finishes.

Despite their set back in Australia, the Red Bull remains the team to beat. This track is a perfect match for the strengths of the Red Bull design and another win is very likely.

This is the fourth race in the season and we have to consider that upgrades are coming, sooner or later. At the start of the season it was rumoured that Red Bull was planning a big upgrade for Japan. More rumours have Ferrari rushing through their proposed Imola upgrades in time for this race.

Ferrari

The tails are up at Ferrari. They did require Red Bull to have problems in Australia, but they took full advantage and scored a 1-2 finish. They are very clearly the second best car on the grid, but how close are they to Red Bull? This will be the acid test.

This track is the first that is a real all round test for the cars’ strengths and weaknesses. The new Ferrari is free of the weaknesses of last year’s car, and so far it has shown no clear weakness, it’s just a bit slower than the Red Bull. The team are free to develop the car rather than spending time addressing problems.

Poor Suzuka Record

Charles Leclerc has finished third and fourth here in the last two years, Sainz was sixth in 2023 but was a DNF in 2022. This has not been a great track for Ferrari as they haven’t had a good enough car. Their last win was in 2004, so unlike Melbourne, Ferrari come here without many good performances to draw on. They were slower than Red Bull and McLaren last year.

Anything less than a podium finish will be seen as a failure. Leclerc has managed tyre wear here better than Sainz in the past, and I expect him to lead the charge for Ferrari, if we have a dry race.

McLaren

A third and fourth place finish in Melbourne flattered them somewhat, but they have established themselves as the third best car, with more to come. The front wing is due a redesign to widen the car’s sweet spot and addressing slower corner weaknesses.

The car has been very strong in fast corners in recent seasons, and this is a track where that will be rewarded. Ferrari may have company in the race to be the second best car this weekend. This was the scene of McLaren’s best result of 2023 and much is expected of them again this year.

Norris has only raced here three times and last year’s second place was his first podium in Japan. Piastri was third on debut.

Shock Announcement

McLaren made a shock announcement earlier in the week. Technical director David Sanchez has left the Woking squad after just three months. He had been poached from Ferrari and it is highly unusual to part company with a star signing, after just a handful of races.

Team principal Andrea Stella will assume Sanchez’ duties in the interim but an early season management reshuffle and an ongoing search for a replacement, is not ideal. It won’t impact on this weekend, or even the next few races, but this was not in the plan and has to be considered a negative in the medium term.

No Upgrades

McLaren are not expected to bring major upgrades to the car until Miami in three races time. They hope to address the top speed deficit and improve DRS effectiveness. That lack of top speed is enough to mean they won’t be racing for a win here, but a podium is a realistic target, unless we get a wet race.

Mercedes

A double DNF in Australia was like kicking a man when he was down. Things are continuing to unravel.

There was a lot of optimism at the start of the season. The old zero pod concept was gone and their best designer back at the helm. But, it seems that the new car is no great step forward, it may even be a step backwards.

At least George Russell is trying to make the most of things but Hamilton just looks disinterested. He wants to leave and he is just killing time, waiting to join Ferrari next year.

Suzuka Struggles

After six consecutive Japanese race wins, Mercedes have finished fifth and eighth, and fifth and seventh in the last two. They may struggle to match that this year. This year’s Merc is suffering with the dreaded bouncing at high speeds, and this track will not be what they need right now.

Hamilton has four wins here since 2014, Russell a couple of top eights. However, you are only as good as your car allows at Suzuka.

Hamilton suffered with a power unit failure in Australia, a rare thing these days. The team will have spent time trying to figure out what went wrong. They are not concerned that there is a design flaw, but it is still another problem they don’t need.

Aston Martin

Just one point behind Mercedes after a controversial race by Alonso in Melbourne.

His attempt to wrong foot the faster Mercedes of Russell in the dying laps caused Russell to have a big crash, and the stewards handed Alonso a 20 second post-race penalty and 3 penalty points on his super licence. It wasn’t that great a punishment as it promoted his teammate to sixth place.

The car is only OK. Faster than the second division cars, fighting with Mercedes, but well shy of the top three teams. Neither driver has a good record here and they struggled here last year. Stroll was out in Q1, Alonso scrapped into Q3, behind Yuki Tsunoda. Alonso finished eighth, stroll was a DNF.

Visa RB

Just about establishing themselves as the top of the second division teams.

Tsunoda was lucky to be promoted to seventh place in Melbourne. He had benefited from the retirements of Verstappen, Hamilton and Russell, and then got the Brucey Bonus of Alonso’s penalty. To his credit, he had qualified eighth, making Q3 for the second race in a row, so the car has reasonable one lap pace, but their race pace is not so good.

Ricciardo Must Deliver

Daniel Ricciardo has reportedly been given this race and the next to show that he deserves to keep his seat. He is very much second best to Tsunoda, and that is not a great benchmark.

Like all the second division teams, Visa RB need attrition for the top five teams if they are to score points, but at least Tsunoda is putting himself into a position to take advantage.

Haas

Doing what they have done in the past, Haas have scored points early in the season. The real measure of any progress they have made will become apparent as the season goes on. They have always been out developed and overtaken by ‘bigger’ teams, but so far, so good.

Haas are not suffering from the tyre degradation problems of recent years and their race pace is as good as any in the second division. They are well placed to take advantage of any attrition ahead of them. Both drivers have scored points here, but neither have a notable track record.

The team are concerned that their car is not competitive in high speed corners, so this track may not be a good one for them. They are lacking in one lap pace, swapping their 2023 trait of being fast in qualifying, but slow in the race, for slow in qualifying, quicker in the race. Any bets on Haas may be better placed post qualifying.

Williams

Their lack of spare parts was exposed in Melbourne. Sargeant was forced to give up his car after Albon had written his off in practice. That is a poor state of affairs and a vote of no confidence in their second driver, but an understandable decision. Albon is their best driver by a big margin.

The fact that they are so short of spares will put the drivers under pressure not to crash. That means not pushing, and that means not maximising performance. The damaged chassis was returned to the UK to be repaired. They don’t even have a spare at the factory. That means Sargeant will be driving in a car that was a write off.

No New Chassis Until Miami

What are the chances that he will find that it doesn’t handle like his previous one? Of course, they should give the repaired chassis back to Albon, but I doubt it somehow. The team now say that a new replacement chassis will not be ready until the Miami GP. The repaired chassis is 100g heavier (slower) and Sargent, the driver who didn’t crash it, is stuck with it for two races.

Albon has two eleventh places so far and qualified twelfth in the last two races. The potential for a points finish is there, but they need some attrition ahead of them. And they must hope that Haas and Visa RB are not ahead of them in the queue. They had a double DNF here last year.

Stake F1

It doesn’t really matter how good the car is if the wheels won’t come off at the pitstops. They are having to redesign the wheel nuts to try and prevent a third race going down the drain. The car isn’t much good in any case, but they may as well not race if they can’t make a pitstop without huge delays.

It is hard to see them scoring points and former Japanese GP winner Bottas will have only good memories. The team are bringing some upgrades for the car, but until they have proven to have found a fix for their pitstop woes, they remain hard to back.

Alpine

Back to back thirteenth places for Alpine is seen as some sort of improvement. Qualifying wise they are fighting with Stake and Sargeant to not to be on the back row.

Alpine had a double points finish (9th and 10th) here last year, but this car is a long way from being able to repeat that feat. Ocon does go well here and has had four top nine finishes in his last four Japanese GPs.

Alpine will bring some upgrades to the car this weekend. Some are addressing weight loss, and there is a new front wing. The team are not expecting more than a small improvement in pace, however.

Weather Forecast

Writing this a few days before race day sees a very uncertain weather forecast. Officially, the forecast is said to be with minimum confidence. I am seeing all sorts from different forecasts.

Rain is there in some and quite heavy rain, others have it relatively dry and sunny. Saturday seems to have more consensus. Cloudy, 17- 19 degrees but dry.

Friday and Sunday seems to be very uncertain. Heavy rain on both days, or sunny and dry. That is not much help, but the weather forecasts are not always easy. Rain is at least a reasonable threat on race day, but there is no great confidence as yet.

Rain Chance Receding?

The very latest update is that the chances of rain are receding, not all forecasts agree, but the consensus is that that Friday and Saturday will be progressively cloudy, but the chance of rain is low.

Sunday could well see rain in the morning, but the chances of rain during the race have dropped. Showers are still possible and a dry race is not a certainty. Temperatures across the weekend will be in the high teens Celsius.

Summary and Ante Post Bets

Those hoping for another race where Red Bull are beaten are likely to be disappointed. Last year we came here after Carlos Sainz had become the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race in 2023.

Verstappen went on to win the Japanese GP by just under 20 seconds. And he got pole position and fastest lap.

Ferrari have a better car than last year, and they should be closer, but the Red Bull loves these fast, flowing tracks that put a premium on good tyre wear. Another mechanical failure for Red Bull might be Ferrari’s best hope, but while Red Bull say they have not established the exact cause of the failure in Melbourne, they do not expect a repeat. It was likely to have been an assembly problem rather than a design problem.

McLaren A Threat

Ferrari also have to worry about McLaren. The Woking based team qualified second and third and finished second and third here in 2023. It was their strongest performance of the 2023 season and as the car has shown the same sort of qualities as last year’s, we should expect McLaren to be in the mix for a top three finish.

They will be fighting the two Red Bulls and Ferraris and they will need a perfect execution, but the odds are good enough for a small bet. A rain affected race should not dent Norris’ chances, he has shown some very good form in the wet before. The McLaren produces a lot of downforce and I would expect it to be very handy in wet conditions.

2024 Japanese GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to finish on the podium @ 3.25 with Unibet (3.20 Betfair)

The uncertainty in the weather forecast makes placing a lot of bets at this stage unwise. We have not seen any wet weather this season, so no decent form guides.

As I have said, the McLaren should be competitive if we have rain. Its lack of straight line speed would be much less of an issue, but the high downforce the car produces would be very handy in the corners. Of course, the same would be the case for Red Bull, but the playing field would be more level.

It is always a pain when we get these races where the forecast says it might rain. Do you take the prices and hope it does, or wait until closer to the race and have more certainty, either to have no bet or accept shorter odds? In this case, I will have a very small bet, just in case the rain arrives, if not, no great loss.

2024 Japanese GP Tip: 0.5 point Lando Norris to win the Japanese GP @ 26.00 with Betfred, Betfair

There will be an update for qualifying posted on Friday afternoon UK time, and the race update on Saturday Afternoon.

-JamesPunt