2024 Japanese GP Qualifying Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Japanese GP Qualifying Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Japanese GP Qualifying preview. He has already posted his outright betting preview, you can read that here.
2024 Japanese GP Qualifying Update
The two free practice sessions were of little help as a guide as to what is going to happen in qualifying, nor was the weather forecast. There was one forecast that got it right and for reference, that was predicting rain all day on Friday, not just the afternoon. They also said that the race would be wet.
The first session at least saw everyone on track and running a full program, albeit on a cool, green track. There was a red flag caused by the now traditional Suzuka crashing of the car by Williams’ Logan Sargant.
The second session saw a damp track and some drizzle, which meant some drivers never took to the track and those that tried, didn’t get any meaningful laps in. The teams are worried enough by the potential of rain on Sunday that they didn’t want to use the limited number of allocated wet weather tyres.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
Have brought significant upgrades. An extra cooling inlet has appeared on the side of the cockpit. Some outlet areas have been closed off in order to improve aero efficiency at the rear. It is said to be a small performance gain.
Of more importance is a new floor, which of course we cannot see. It is aimed at producing more downforce and a more significant performance gain.
The brake duct inlets have been shrunk, which may just be a circuit specific thing. It is cool here and the brakes don’t get a real work out here in any case.
Upgrades Working?
The fact that they finished FP1 in first and second place suggests that it has worked, but Carlos Sainz was just 0.213 off Verstappen’s time. It is very hard to read too much into it. Just one session is not much to go on and you would expect Red Bull to be fine tuning things after looking at the data overnight.
The car looked well balanced and ran much as expected. Still the benchmark. The team were ‘satisfied’ with how the first run with the upgrades had gone.
Ferrari
Carlos Sainz was closer to Red Bull than he expected, but Mercedes were much closer to Ferrari than expected. If Red Bull were running with more fuel, and or the power units turned down, then Ferrari could be in more bother than it looks. Such is the unsatisfactory nature of having just one session to go on.
Leclerc did some long run times which were good enough to catch the eye of Red Bull and cause them some concern. Fuel loads could explain it, but we don’t know. Red Bull were certain that Ferrari were running higher power unit modes, but the gap on the long runs was quite big.
Ferrari have brought a bigger rear wing and beam wing, just in case we get rain.
Merecedes
The bad news for Hamilton is that his power unit that failed in Melbourne has now been written off. It cannot be repaired and it is out of his allocated pool of four units for the season. That means he is likely to have to take a big grid penalty for taking a replacement later in this long season.
On track, the Mercedes looked better than it has done so far this season. They split the two Ferraris, which is either good for Mercedes, or bad for Ferrari. However, it is pretty normal for Mercedes to be looking competitive on Friday, only to fall back when it counts. At least Hamilton was in touch with Russell, which does suggest that the car was better.
Their long runs were done on the softs which dropped off quite quickly, so it is hard to compare to Red Bull and Ferrari who were on hards, while McLaren were doing theirs on mediums.
Happy Hamilton
Hamilton was positively buzzing at the end of the day. ‘The best session we have had this year’. In Melbourne it was his worst ever. It could be that the car has hit its tiny sweet spot and if conditions remain the same, they could have a better weekend.
The caveat is that Mercedes have a tendency to drop in and out of that sweet spot very easily. Russell was equally as happy about the car, but did say that they do go better in cooler conditions, which does suggest that the car is just in its sweet spot, and if things change…
Merecedes and Haas were the only two teams not to declare any changes to their cars.
McLaren
Disappointing on the face of it, but the team are not downbeat. Norris didn’t get a proper soft tyre run in FP1 as he was on track when the red flag was thrown after Sergeant’s prang. When he did put in his lap, the tyres were past their best.
Piastri was quickest of the five drivers that set a time in FP2 but that session was meaningless. ‘Better than it looked’ was Norris’ opinion of the day, but also that Red Bull and Ferrari are faster.
Norris was running with less downforce than Piastri and he is likely to put more on the car for the rest of the weekend. The car seems to be several tenths off the top two teams in terms of one lap pace
Aston Martin
Lance Stroll ran with a big upgrade. The underbody has been completely revised and a new diffuser fitted to go with the new floor. Alonso was due to run it in FP2 but the wet conditions meant that he didn’t run. Alonso was 1.5s faster than Stroll in FP 1 but it is hard to know what kind of program the two ran. If it was a straight back-to-back test, then that is a worry.
Visa RB
Changes to the floor and floor edges have been introduced to increase downforce. The team burned a set of inters in FP2 and sat 1-2 for a while, until Piastri went faster on slicks.
Kick Sauber F1
Like Visa RB, brought a revised floor along with tweaks to the inlets aimed at Improving stability. There was no word about revised wheel nuts, and that problem is expected to be an ongoing issue.
Haas
No upgrades and they remain downbeat about their chances here. Thirteenth and nineteenth is about par for the course in FP1.
Williams
Ran some minor front wing endplate upgrades. Logan Sargeant had a sizeable smash and while the team say the already repaired chassis was not damaged, just about everything else was. Sargeant would not have been able to take part in FP2 had it not been rain affected.
Two big crashes in consecutive Grand Prix means the team are spending big bucks on spares and repairs. God knows what kind of car they can cobble together for the rest of Sargeant’s weekend. Jonny Cash’s ‘One piece at a Time’ springs to mind.
Alpine
Ran with their new front wing. Ocon, who does go well here was 11th in FP1, Alpine’s highest showing in FP1 this season. They were very much in the midfield mix, except for the straights, where they were losing a lot of time.
Summary
It was hard to have too much certainty of the car’s relative pace, but Verstappen believes that the field are closer than last year and a 20 second winning margin would be unlikely this year. Ferrari are closer and on one lap pace, could be eying a front row start. McLaren are just ahead of Mercedes, and a tenth or so ahead of Aston Martin.
There is a sizable gap to the second division cars, something like six tenths to Visa RB. They look like a clear best of the rest here, but with the proviso that they have a Honda power unit and a Japanese driver. Low fuel and higher PU settings?
Albon, Haas and Kick Sauber F1 are in a heap, with Alpine said to be four tenths off the rest. I doubt that to be true, but being so slow on the straight will make racing hard.
Settled Weather
The weather forecast for the rest of the weekend looks to be settled. Cloudy but dry for FP3 and qualifying, temperatures a couple of degrees up on today. Raceday is set to be dry and warmer. It will be partly sunny with air temperatures reaching 22 degrees. That means the track will be warmer and could well change how the tyres degrade.
We go into the business end of the weekend after an inconclusive first day. The weather is slowly improving and even temperature increases of a few degrees could knock a few teams out of their sweet spot.
It is not ideal from a betting point of view, especially with final practice being at 3.30 am UK time. Well past my bedtime these days. We will have a much better idea about things after qualifying and it would be unwise to be getting heavily involved in betting on qualifying.
Red Bull v Ferrari For Pole?
The battle for pole looks to be between Red Bull and Ferrari. Verstappen invariably leads the charge for Red Bull, but who is having the better time at Ferrari?
It was Carlos Sainz, still recovering from surgery, who outqualified Leclerc in Melbourne and went on to win the race. He was the closest to Red Bull in the only meaningful session today. Is he getting more out of the Ferrari?
Leclerc is 2-0 vs Sainz with Ferrari at Suzuka, but they were very close in 2022. So far this season it is 1-1 at Ferrari.
Verstappen is the 1.36 favourite to make it four poles from four in 2024 and he should do just that. The bookies can’t split the Ferraris at 7.50 each. Perez is 13.00 for each way bets, but he has not made the front row here for Red Bull, nor has he made the front row this year so far. I will sit out a bet on pole position.
2024 Japanese GP Qualifying: Side Markets
Tsunoda has made Q3 in the last two races and was 11th in Bahrain. He is just 1.44 to do so again. Such was the gap between the top five teams and the second division teams today, we may well see no driver from the bottom five crashing the Q3 party tomorrow. This track does sort the wheat from the chaff.
2024 Japanese GP Qualifying: Match Bets
Daniel Ricciardo is drinking in the last chance saloon, but I will take a chance that he can outqualify the Sauber of Bottas. He is 2-1 vs. Bottas in 2024 and but for a deleted lap time in Melbourne, should be 3-0. The Visa RB was said to be about 0.4 faster than the Sauber in FP1, which is a considerable margin.
Ricciardo was inconvenienced by having to sit out FP1 as the team were running their Japanese reserve driver. He got nine laps in in the damp FP2 session but he needs a good FP3 to find his best set up. It is not an ideal preparation, but the car is very important around this track and hopefully the pace advantage of the VISA RB makes the difference.
2024 Japanese GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Daniel Ricciardo to out qualify Valtteri Bottas @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes
Over at Alpine, Esteban Ocon is 3-0 versus his teammate Gasly in 2024. There hasn’t been much between them but Ocon is just getting that bit more out of the car. He was some 0.33 seconds faster in FP1 and Ocon does go well at Suzuka.
