2024 Japanese GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Japanese GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Japanese GP Raceday preview. He has already fired in a couple of winners in qualifying, fingers crossed there will be more to come on Sunday morning.
2024 Japanese GP Raceday Update
There were no great surprises in qualifying. Red Bull had been 1-2 in the two meaningful practice sessions and they qualified first and second. That is what should happen with the best car at Suzuka.
The only thing that was surprising was that the drivers from the various teams were often quite well separated. On a ‘car track’ that tends not to happen, so some drivers have over performed, some have been poor.
2024 Japanese GP Raceday: Team-by-Team Outlook
Red Bull
All as expected. Perez getting to within 0.066 of Verstappen was a little surprising, but Perez nailed his final Q3 run, Max not so much. Both drivers have not been overly enthusiastic about their race pace, and Verstappen was concerned about Ferrari in particular.
At least he has his teammate to help out, but they will need to watch out for Norris at the start as the McLaren is just as fast in the first sector. Half of the last eight races here have finished with one team having their drivers finish 1-2. There is a good chance that will happen again.
McLaren
Clearly the second best car here last year, but their third place on the grid this time was down to a great lap from Norris. Piastri starts sixth but he was only a couple of tenths off Norris’ time. It is just very competitive behind the Red Bulls.
Piastri has usually made up a place or two over the race distance so far in 2024, but the car is still very slow on the straights. That will make passing difficult for him, and he could be vulnerable to attack under DRS.
Ferrari
Carlos Sainz is beginning to make Ferrari look a bit silly. They were very quick to sign up Hamilton to replace Sainz for next year, but so far in 2024, Sainz is putting Leclerc in the shade. Leclerc is not happy, he doesn’t understand why he can’t find the same sort of pace as Sainz. The Spaniard has been quicker all weekend and is showing that Melbourne was no fluke.
The car was struggling in sector three and that could make catching Norris tricky. With McLaren vulnerable down the start – finish straight, the Ferrari needs to be close coming out of the final corner. If they are losing ground at that point, it will give Norris valuable breathing space before he can open the gap again in S1. Leclerc starts just eighth and that looks a long way from the podium.
Aston Martin
A BIG teammate separation here. Alonso totally nailed qualifying and starts fifth. Stroll, once again, flopped in qualifying at Suzuka and starts sixteenth. He is a great first lap driver, but that is largely due to the fact that his grid position puts him in amongst slower cars. He is very lucky that his Dad owns the team.
The Aston Martin does tend to be at its most competitive when on low fuel and I expect that Alonso will lose a place or two over the race distance. Stroll will make up ground, but the points are a long way away and he is no stick on.
Mercedes
Friday’s form flattered them, again. They had also gone well in FP3, but when everyone turns the power units up and takes the fuel out, Mercedes find their level and it is the third/fourth row.
The drivers are quite happy with the car this weekend and remain confident that they will be more competitive over the race distance. They are slower than Red Bull and McLaren, but Hamilton could well finish ahead of Alonso, and maybe Sainz. Russell will be eying up the struggling Leclerc, and maybe Alonso.
Visa RB
It was a very good day at the office for the Red Bull B team. Starting tenth and eleventh is as good as it gets for a second division team, and that their Japanese driver made Q3 was the icing on the cake. The question is, can they stay in the top 10?
Tsunoda has qualified very well in 2024. His worst was eleventh place in Bahrain, followed by ninth in Saudi and eighth in Melbourne. He was able to convert his eighth in Melbourne into points, but he needed Verstappen, Hamilton and Russell to have DNFs, and Alonso to get a 20 second penalty.
In the other two races, Tsunoda dropped back over the race distance. The car is the sixth best in terms of pace, but their race pace is not brilliant. They are helped by the fact that behind them, only Stroll has a significantly faster car and he starts six places behind Tsunoda.
Of course, it could be that Ricciardo is the one to score the points, he is driving for his career, but I suspect the team would rather the home favourite were to score.
Haas
It is a surprise to see Hulkenberg so high up the grid on a track not expected to suit their car. Their prodigious straight line speed in S2 and S3 has definitely helped Hulkenberg and he will be hard to pass. He has tended to make up places over a race distance, but he is starting well up the grid this time.
The car has scored points in the last two races, so The Hulk is in with a chance, but he may need a bit of attrition ahead of him.
Kick Sauber
Bottas starts thirteenth for the second race in a row, but his problem is that he will have to make at least one pitstop, maybe two, and that is where it can all go wrong for Sauber. The sticking wheel nuts are still an ongoing problem and it would be brave, or foolish to back Bottas.
Williams
Albon doesn’t seem to have any more race pace than qualifying pace. He could/should make a place up at the expense of Bottas, but the Haas and Visa RB are faster cars, and he has Stroll coming from behind.
Alpine
Ocon managed to get out of Q1 for the second race in a row and he goes well at Suzuka. However, the car isn’t up to scoring points, without a huge slice of luck. Attrition from those ahead seems his only chance of making any great progress.
The Weather
We have had largely cool, cloudy weather so far. There was some light rain on Friday, but the trend has been towards drier conditions, and the temperature picking up. It is expected to rain overnight, but Sunday will be pleasant. Dry, with a mix of clouds and sun.
The temperature will reach 22 degrees, the highest of the weekend, and that may throw in a bit of a curve ball. The higher temperatures should increase the tyre degradation and that may hurt some teams more than others.
It was predicted that this could be a toss-up between a one or two stop race. The high temps might move it more towards two. More stops is bad news for Sauber. Higher temperatures may suit McLaren a bit, and might hurt Mercedes a bit, but the teams are in the dark about tyre wear in higher temps this weekend.
2024 Japanese GP Raceday Summary
Unless we get a repeat of that rarest of things, a mechanical DNF for Verstappen, he wins. Perez should follow him home. Norris is in the right place to land our podium bet, but it will not be easy.
He is not massively faster than the cars behind him and he is giving away a lot of speed on the straights. He will have to be very smart as to how he goes about the race, but the car is fast in the high speed corners and that is very useful here.
Fingers crossed he can do it and he is now 1.95 to finish on the podium.
2024 Japanese GP Raceday Selections
I like the look of Kevin Magnussen to win Ladbrokes Group 4. He is grouped with the two Alpines and Valtteri Bottas. KMAG starts last in the group, but he is in the best car, race pace wise.
Magnussen suffers from very poor qualifying pace and while eighteenth is his lowest of the year so far, he should make some progress. The car is not great in the fast corners, but it is the fastest in a straight line. That should allow him to attack the slower Alpines ahead of him.
Bottas starts thirteenth and should be able to win the group from there, but there is a very real chance that his race is ruined by more sticky nuts. His heart will be in his mouth when he has to stop for tyres, and he might have to do that twice. He has fallen back on his starting position in all three races so far.
Magnussen has improved on his grid position in all three races. The two Alpines are very beatable, having the slowest long run pace on the grid. Having the best straight line performance of the group might be enough to win this, and the odds make it worth the risk.
2024 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Magnussen to win Group 4 @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes
Oscar Piastri starts sixth, having not been able to match the pace of his teammate in third. The McLaren has proven to be a good race car and Piastri has not dropped a place from his grid position in the first three races and has improved in two. The car is very well suited to the track and Piastri should have his sights on fourth place.
He has been matched with Charle Leclerc and is the outsider of two, despite starting two places ahead of the Ferrari. Leclerc hasn’t been on it all weekend and sounds rather frustrated. I have Piastri favourite to win this match up.
2024 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to beat Charles Leclerc @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes
Lewis Hamilton is much more chipper this weekend. He is happy with the car and it does look an easier drive than it has been. When Hamilton is happy, he usually does a good race.
Alonso outperformed his car to get it up to fifth place. The Aston struggles to match its race pace with its one lap pace and the opposite is true of the Mercedes. I would expect Alonso to struggle to keep Piastri and Hamilton behind him.
2024 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to beat Fernando Alonso @ 1.92 with Unibet
The final bet is a very speculative punt for minimum stakes. Fastest lap is not a market I normally play, but at the odds I’ll have a tickle on Alonso. Simply because he has a set of brand new soft tyres, the only top 10 driver to do so.
He joked that he may use them to drive to the grid but there could be a scenario where he finds himself making a late stop and having a chance to nick a point for fastest lap. Maybe after a safety car or similar. It is likely to be a good value loser, but the odds are big enough to have a flyer.
