2024 Masters Golf Betting Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Masters Golf Betting Preview & Tips
It’s that time of the year again. The first golf major of the season and it is the one that players covet the most. Augusta National is the venue, the action begins on Thursday and James Punt is going to try to find some value bets. Check out his 2024 Masters Golf betting preview and tips below.
2024 Masters Golf Betting Preview
Normally, I would be really looking forward to The Masters, the real start of the golf season. But this year, not so much.
Professional golf is divided into two camps. One, the established PGA Tour, DP World Tour etc. They play regular tournament golf, with a halfway cut. Don’t make the cut, don’t get paid. Quite brutal, competitive and available to watch on your TV, week in week out.
The other is a bunch of already very rich men, getting paid hundreds of millions of Saudi dollars, to play three round events, in a team format, with no cut, on wanky resort courses…and in shorts! I am not a fan.
Divided
A sport divided rarely thrives and it would seem that applies to golf. Does anyone watch, or care about LIV Golf? And of course, with many of the big name players, like John Rahm, having been bought off with the Saudi blood money, the PGA and DP World tour has lost some of its best talents.
You switch on the golf and half the names at the top of the leaderboard are not exactly well known. Maybe the true golf devotees will have heard of them, but not the causal golf fan.
On Sunday night the Texas Open featured a play-off between Akshay Bhatia and Denny McCarthy. They were nine shots clear of Rory McIlroy (yeah! I’ve heard of him) and we had Matsuyama, Fleetwood and Spieth in the top 10.
The reality is that TV viewership of golf has dropped by around 20% since the split. That is a serious state of affairs for any sport and its value to sponsors etc.
Most Prestigious
So we come to the most prestigious of the majors, with some thirteen LIV golf players allowed to play, but many are not. Those that will play include defending champion John Rahm, and past champions Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia and Dustin Johnson.
They are joined by Brooks Koepka, Tyrell Hatton, Bryson DeChambeau, Adrian Meronk, Joaquin Niemann and Cam Smith. Last year eighteen LIV golfers played and three finished in the top ten.
While the LIV players may not be playing the best courses on a regular basis, some of them are still potential winners. However, many are past their best, some not good enough and Rahm is trying to achieve what only three other players have done and win back-to-back Masters.
DeChambeau has never played well at Augusta and it remains to be seen if the LIV breakaway players will be able to repeat last year’s success.
Rahm U-Turn
Of course, this time last year, Jon Rahm was a PGA Tour member and said “Shotgun [start] with three days to me is not a golf tournament, no cut. It’s that simple.” He then found 450 million reasons to change his mind. He now wants LIV to move to 72 holes and clearly has some buyer’s remorse, but he can console himself by never having to worry about a missed putt ever again.
For the good of golf, I hope that the LIV players miss the cut and they can go back to play their giggle golf on Donald Trump’s courses. They took the big bucks, so what are they doing here anyway?
They are here because this event is a standalone tournament, owned by Augusta National Inc., a private company that was founded in 1932 and operates as a golf club and conducts golf tournaments. Augusta National could invite me if they wished, but so far, they have resisted that temptation.
So, if it is not going to be me slipping on the Green Jacket, who might?
The Course
We are all familiar with Augusta National, the most perfectly manicured golf course in the world. It is now a 7555 yard, par 72 course, but it plays longer than that.
The grass is mown in the green to tee direction, so that the grass lies down towards the tee. That reduces the amount of run out on the ball, and it is said to effectively make the course play nearer 8000 yards. It is a beast and only big hitters may apply.
Every year the committee tweak the course and adding length seems to be the norm. The 11th hole was increased to 520 yards last year but is played as a par four. Ridiculous.
The winner is going to be near the top of the longest drivers list.
Undulating Fairways
However, Augusta is not an out and out bombers course. The fairways are very undulating. The players rarely have a flat lie which requires a bit more skill to execute a shot, but it also means that the players need to read the course topography correctly.
They can’t just bang the ball down the fairway and expect a good lie. They need to hit it in the right places to get the best shot into the greens. Rough is not an issue at Augusta and the fairways are generous, but placement is key.
The greens are famously ultra-fast and undulating. They may be huge, but to get a birdie chance, you need to hit the right part of the green, and don’t leave a downhill putt.
Course Experience Key
Experience of playing here before is a must. Rookies generally struggle. The greens have big run off areas and are without that classic American course feature of rough around them.
Miss the putting surface here and you don’t just reach for the lob wedge, you have a decision to make. Putt it, flop it, chip and run, aerial or along the deck. Again, course experience helps the decision making.
Past winners here have manged to play the par 5s well, but it is the par fours that are the meat and drink. Score well on those and your card will be competitive.
Recent Form
It goes without saying that your selection needs to be playing well, and preferably will have already won an event this season.
Course Form
Course experience is always important, but it is essential at Augusta. Knowing where to play to around the course, what part of the green to go for and so on.
Who can’t win the 2024 Masters Golf?
Unlike the other majors, there are only eighty nine players in the field, so finding the winner should be a lot easier. It is made even easier in that many of the players in the field are here as they qualify as past winners.
Many of these past winners are here for a slap up supper before the event, two rounds of Augusta and then an early trip home. The likes of Jose Maria Olazabal, Vijay Singh, Fred Couples, Mike Weir and yes, Tiger Woods, are making up the numbers.
Danny Willett, Charl Schwartzel, Zach Johnson, Sergio Garcia and Bubba Watson are all still on active duty, but not on many short lists. There are five amateurs in the tournament and they don’t win the Masters.
The last rookie to win the Masters was Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979. While there are some very good rookies in the field this year, such as Wyndham Clark and Ludvig Aberg, I’ll draw a line through all seventeen rookie pros.
That has thinned out 32 of the 89 entrants.
Defending champions are very rare. Only Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods have achieved the feat. On top of that, Jon Rahm hasn’t won a tournament since he won here last year. Out he goes.
The Form Players
Scotty Scheffler is the best player in the world right now. His last three tournaments have form figures of 1/1/2.
Joaquin Niemann has won two of his last six LIV golf events and won on the DP World tour before taking the Saudi’s largesse.
Hideki Matsuyama comes here in much better form than when he won here in 2021. His last four events read 1/12/6/7 and he gets on the shortlist.
Dustin Johnson is another past winner who has picked up a recent win on the LIV tour. Rory McIlroy was a distant third at the weekend in Texas, but he has won already in 2024. That said, he hasn’t been at his best in 2024. Nick Taylor is now the World number 25 and has won in 2024.
Top 10 Regular
Xander Schauffele racks up top 10s for fun, he has had five in his last seven tournaments, but a serial winner his is not.
Cameron Young is another who is racking up plenty of high finishes, four top eight finishes from his last eight events. Sahith Theegala has three top 10s from his last five events, Will Zalatoris two top fours from his last four.
Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Scott, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley and Jordan Spieth have all had some decent results which keeps them on the radar.
2024 Masters Golf: Tournament Specialists
From the form players above, Scheffler, Matsuyama, Johnson and Spieth are all past winners and they stay on the shortlist.
Will Zalatoris has played in two Masters and finished second and sixth. His average 18 hole score is 70.50, tied with Jon Rahm and bettered by no one else in the field.
Theegala has only played in one Masters and finished ninth. It isn’t much to go on, but he stays on the list. Xander Schauffele has two top 3s and a top 10 in the last five years. He is a bit of a bridesmaid in my book, but he has the form and has performed well on the course.
Rory McIlroy has no less than seven Masters top 10s, and a lot of scar tissue. He needs this for the career slam and it is in his head. His putting is suspect under pressure and it could be a case of close, but no cigar once again.
The 2024 Masters Golf Weather
It looks like the weather at Augusta this weekend could be challenging. It is going to be windy. Wind is always a challenge for golfers, but it is part of the game and these pros should be able to manage, it’s just that some will manage better than others.
The fact that Augusta is a tree lined course means the wind tends to swirl rather than just blow in one direction. A good caddy with in-depth Augusta experience is worth much gold in these conditions, as is having previous course experience of playing here in the wind.
Delays Possible
There is a chance that we could get the dreaded weather delays. Thursday is forecast to be windy, wet with thunderstorms. Any electrical activity means the hooter comes out and everyone retreats to the clubhouse.
Strong winds will have the organisers worried. I believe it was at last year’s Masters where a windy squall brought down a large tree, which came very close to squashing some of the patrons. Health and Safety will be foremost in their minds.
The forecast is for around 2cms of rain and hail which will add further length to the course.
A long delay means rounds not getting completed and it can get very messy and a bit of a lottery. Some players may get lucky, playing in the best of conditions and some will get the shitty end of the stick.
Better Conditions
It could even be that some players don’t play many, if any, holes on Thursday. That could mean they get the better conditions to play in on Friday, but they would have to play a lot of holes, on a course that is a hard walk.
The weekend looks better. There is some merit to saying, leave your betting until after the cut is made, or at the very least until after the worst of the weather has passed on Thursday. Sadly, for the purposes of this preview, I don’t have that luxury.
The Selections
Having taken into account pertinent factors, such as driving distance, shots gained on approach, scrambling, putting, event form, bentgrass green records & form in windy conditions, I have come up with a list of the likely suspects, and not many are a surprise.
Scotty Scheffler is the most likely winner and that is reflected in odds of just 5.50. Not the kind of odds that make much appeal and the record of the betting favourite for the Masters has been pretty poor as a rule. That said, it would be no surprise to see him win.
Jon Rahm I have scratched due to him being the defending champ. Rory McIlroy I have scratched as his putting is poor and I think mentally, he puts too much pressure on himself in the majors.
Xander Makes The Shortlist
Xander Schauffele is always on the shortlist. He has a good record here, there and everywhere, but over his career he has only won seven PGA titles and two European Tour titles. He has been second here, second in the Open and third in the US Open. Will this be his turn at last?
Matsuyama is a previous Masters winner and in good enough form to think he can have a good run. Jordan Spieth may not be the player he once was, but he does play this course well. Patrick Reed was the least popular Masters winner, perhaps ever, but he is ticking a lot of boxes. For an outsider, Russel Henley makes some e/w appeal.
The variations for e/w terms from the various bookmakers is bewildering and I’ll leave that to personal preference. I wouldn’t be overly seduced by terms like 1/5 the odds top 12, with the appropriately reduced odds.
The chances are that if your selection makes the required place, they will be tied and you will walk away still losing money, but there are plenty offering reasonable outright odds for the top 7 or 8 places.
1 point Scotty Scheffler to win the 2024 Masters Golf @ 5.50 with Boylesports
0.5 point e/w Hideki Matsuyama to win the 2024 Masters Golf @ 19.00 Hills
0.5 point e/w Xander Schauffele to win the 2024 Masters Golf @ 17.00 Boylesports (1/5 the odds 1-6)
Side Markets
Russell Henley was fourth here last year and came close to the top 10 in 2017 (11th) and 2018 (15th). He is in good form, finishing fourth in two of his last three events.
2024 Masters Golf Tip: 1 point Russell Henley to finish in the Top 10 @ 6.00 with Ladbrokes
Sergio Garcia won this back in 2017, but since then he has played five times and missed the cut in four of them. He was runner up on the LIV tour last week in Miami, but this is a different kettle of fish.
