2024 Aintree Bowl Stats That Matter Preview – DS
2024 Aintree Bowl Stats That Matter
The stats are back sooner than originally scheduled. Usually, we only do these previews for the Cheltenham Festival but after they managed to find us a couple of big priced winners last month, we may as well give Aintree a go. Check out our 2024 Aintree Bowl Stats That Matter preview below.
Age
Only seven runners here so it shouldn’t take too long to narrow the field. As per usual, we’ll start by looking at the most likely age profile of the winner. Since 2000 the overwhelming majority of winners have been aged 8yo (6), 9yo (5) and 10yo (7). Just three 7yos and two 11yos have won in that time so we’ll focus on horses aged between 8yo and 10yo for this preview.
The only runner to miss out due to their age is the well fancied Corbetts Cross. Even if he was an 8yo he wouldn’t be making it to the final cut because as you will soon see, last time out winners do not tend to fare well in this race.
Cut: Corbetts Cross
Current Form
One thing you don’t want, according to the stats, is to come into this race on the back of a win. Since See More Business won in 2000, only What A Friend and Old Vic have managed to defy this trend. Cheltenham can often leave a mark on horses and this race is a perfect example of that.
So, this means we have to wave goodbye to another well fancied horse in Shishkin. The 40/1 rag Thunder Rock also won last time out so he is another one to get the chop. So, that leaves us with four final contenders, we’ll try to sort them out below.
Cut: Shishkin; Thunder Rock.
2024 Aintree Bowl Stats That Matter – The Final four
The final four contenders for the 2024 Aintree Bowl are Gerri Colombe (6/4), Bravemansgame (11/1), Ahoy Senor (12/1) and our Gold Cup ante-post fancy Gentlemansgame (25/1).
Gerri Colombe is the most obvious choice and that is reflected in his odds. However, he had a very hard race trying to land a blow on Galopin Des Champs at Cheltenham and horses that have placed in the Gold Cup haven’t exactly set the world alight in this race in the past. One thing in his favour is the heavy ground and that could help him hit the frame.
Aintree Specialist
Ahoy Senor loves Aintree. Last year he bounced back from a fall in the Gold Cup to chase home Shishkin and he won Grade 1s at this meeting in 2021 and 2022. Lucinda Russell’s charge has had a relatively poor season but it would be no surprise to see him produce a big run here.
Bravemansgame and Gentlemansgame are closely matched on their meeting at Wetherby back in November. Mouse Morris’ charge found things happening far too quickly for him in the Gold Cup and this smaller field should suit him a lot better.
The Nicholls’ horse has run some blinders in defeat this season but he has become expensive to follow. He hasn’t won since landing the King George in 2022 and he’s been a beaten favourite twice at this meeting. Heavy ground may not be ideal for him too so it might be best to leave him alone.
Ahoy Senor could be the one to be on but with three places on offer, I’m keeping the faith with Gentlemansgame for each way purposes. He shouldn’t be double the odds of Bravemansgame, hopefully he can make amends for Cheltenham. If you do fancy Ahoy Senor, I wouldn’t put you off him either at 12/1.
