2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Preview
Haatem ensured we didn’t go home empty handed on Thursday. He won the Craven for us at 16/1 in fine style. Ingleby Ivy needed the run and Lovemeforareason was green and unruly in the prelims. Makarova wasn’t held up as I’d hoped but she still ran an ok race. We have another action packed day ahead of us tomorrow, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday preview below.
1.15 Ayr – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Just two single figure fields at Ayr and Newbury today and this is one of them. The three main protagonists in the fight for the top UK trainer title all have runners. Bryony Frost rides Sans Bruit for Paul Nicholls, Paul Townend is on Uncle Phil for Willie and Harry Skelton rides Pembroke for Dan.
Unsurprisingly, those three horses dominate the market. I hope that Tommy’s Oscar sickens them and if he is at his best, he is more than capable of beating this lot. However, he’s only 13/2 and that is too short for the blog. We’ll sit this one out and I’ll be cheering Tommy on. No bet.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
1.30 Newbury – John Porter Stakes (Group 3)
Last year’s Leger runner up, Arrest, is the 13/8 fav for this 12f Group 3. He won easily on his reappearance at Chester last season, he is 1/1 at Newbury (over 15f gd/sft) and he enjoys a bit of cut in the ground. He is rated 114, 3lbs inferior to the older and more experienced Hamish, but he gets 3lbs weight from that rival.
Hamish had a flawless season last year, winning all four of his starts at G3 level. He’s now an 8yo but he looked as good as ever in 2023 and it’ll be very interesting to see how much ability he retains. He has run three times previously at Newbury, returning form figures of 322. Obvious chance but that’s reflected in his price.
Lively Outsiders?
Are there any lively outsiders in here? The one I have come down on is the inconsistent but talented Max Vega. Unlike the two market leaders, Ralph Beckett’s son of Lope De Vega comes into this race fit. He did run poorly last time over 16f at Newcastle but his previous two starts at today’s trip saw him finish second in a handicap at Kempton and win a handicap at Wolves (off 106).
On his last turf start he ran a creditable race at Newmarket (12f hvy), beat just over 3L by Hamish. However, when they met over this C&D in October 2022, Max Vega came out on top by a head. Beckett’s charge seems to like Newbury, returning career form figures of 221713 at the track. A bit of cut in the ground is fine, Rossa Ryan knows him well and this race may well be his early season target. At 22/1, Max Vega is the e/w selection.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Max Vega e/w @ 22/1
1.50 Ayr – Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The one I am interested in here at odds of around 16/1 is Donny Boy. Trained by in form Nick Alexander, this 8yo son of Westerner remains a maiden after six starts over fences. However, he has run some nice races in defeat and given the size of this pot, he may well have been targeted at this race.
Back in December he went down by a head to Jet Legs at Newcastle (23.5f gd). He was running off 122 that day and he was conceding 12lbs to the 110 rated winner. That horse went on to win again off 115 and he ran with credit off 120 on his last start in a class 2 contest at Carlisle. Nick Alexander’s charge is in off 123 today, just a pound higher than he was that day on Tyneside.
His last two runs have been decent, beat 8L into 4th at Donny and 10l into 3rd at Wetherby. At Doncaster, he finished 4l behind Young Buster, from whom he was getting 9lbs. With Bruce Lynn’s 3lbs claim, he is 6lbs better off with him here (and effectively 2lbs lower than for his near miss at Newcastle).
This will be his toughest test he has faced to date but he should be trying his best and if he repeats that Newcastle run, it might just be enough to sneak a place at 14/1.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Donny Boy e/w @ 14/1 (4 places) NB
2.05 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Group 3)
Just six runners here and all but one of them are 6/1 or shorter. I do like the pedigree of the outsider Topanga but I am always wary of horses that come into turf group races on the back of an all weather win. That being said, her dam is related to plenty of winners on the grass and her sire Siyouni is capable of producing top class performers. However, I’d rather keep a watching brief today so this is going to be a no bet race.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.25 Ayr – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade 2 Handicap)
The very lightly raced Salsada is a horse I have been tracking for an awfully long time. She was talented on the flat but her career in that sphere was blighted by her disliking for going into the starting stalls. She still managed to rack up two wins on the level, including one over 10f at Ayr.
Salsada was switched to hurdling in January 2023 and on her first start she ran a blinder in a Doncaster G2, finishing 6L second to G1 winner Epatante. She wasn’t seen again until running in this race off 130 and she finished fifth, beat 9.75L by Rubaud.
Improving
She’s had three runs this term, all in the month of March, and she has improved for each one. Last time out was her best effort since her hurdling debut. She finished a fine third behind Brentford Hope off 120 and while she may be 8lbs ‘wrong’ here, Dylan Johnston’s 5lbs claim helps in that regard.
She’ll be effectively 7lbs lower than when fifth in this last year with Johnston’s claim and she’ll be 15lbs better off with Rubaud compared to last year. That should enable her to close the gap to that rival and at odds of 16/1, hopefully she sneaks into the frame.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Salsada e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
2.40 Newbury – Greenham Stakes (Group 3)
We backed Son on a number of occasions last term but to no avail. The son of Too Darn Hot has loads of ability but things just never seem to fall right for Richard Hannon’s charge. His form figures of 55535 don’t tell the whole story. For example, he was fifth in the G2 Royal Lodge last year but he was only beat 2.5L for the win by Ghostwriter.
When he was fifth at Goodwood in another G2 last August (7f gd/sft) he was only 2.25L behind Haatem, a facile winner of the Craven for us on Thursday. Iberian, the subsequent G2 Champagne Stakes winner, was only 1.25L ahead of Son and Mountain Bear, second at the Breeders Cup, was only half a length ahead of him.
Good to soft ground is ideal for this promising colt and he’ll be ridden by his regular partner Pat Dobbs. It looked like 8f stretched him on his last two starts of 2023 so the drop back to 7f will suit him, as will the good to soft ground. I think 20/1 is a bit of an insult of a price for a horse that has some quality form in the book and at those odds, Son has to be worth chancing e/w.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Son e/w @ 20/1 NAP
3.00 Ayr – Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Flower Of Scotland isn’t the most reliable of mares but if she puts it all in, she is more than capable of running well in this race off a mark of 114. She has lost her confidence somewhat over fences. It’s hard to believe that could happen if you watched her winning the Borders National at Kelso in 2022 and that was the last time she got her head in front.
Sandy Thomson’s charge has not shaped well over fences on her last three runs. Her best recent effort came a year ago at Kelso where she was beat 2.75L in a decent handicap hurdle off 117. In 2022 she ran in this race and it was a solid effort to finish 4th, beat 2.75L for the win off 115.
She is back for a repeat bid off 114, a pound lower than she was in 2022 and 3lbs lower than when running so well at Kelso on her last start over timber. Obviously, it won’t be easy with Mullins, Skelton and Nicholls looking to hoover up as much prize money as possible but Sandy Thomson is no mug and if Flower Of Scotland is on a going day, she can hopefully reward e/w support at 16/1.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Flower Of Scotland e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
3.15 Newbury – Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2)
In 2021 and 2023, Revich ran poorly in the Lincoln on his seasonal reappearance. In both those years he pitched up in the Spring Cup on his next start and he ran huge races on both occasions. Back in 2021 he was beat just 2.75L into fourth off 96 on good ground and last year, he was beat just over 4L into third behind Jimi Hendrix on soft off 92.
Richard Spencer’s charge loves these big field handicaps and given his decent record in this race, it is surprising to see him chalked up at odds of 50/1. He races off a mark of 97 this time but with Sean Bowen’s claim, he is effectively in off the same rating off which he placed in the race last year.
He comes into the race with his yard in good form too. Two of Spencer’s last seven runners have won and while Sean Bowen has yet to ride a winner for him, he has finished second on two of his three rides for the stable. Winning might be too big an ask for Revich but he certainly has place claims if at his best and at odds of 50/1, he is worth taking a chance on.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Revich e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)
3.35 Ayr – Scottish Grand National (Premier)
We managed to find I Am Maximus at Aintree last week, can we complete the Grand National double? I had my eye on Inis Oirr for the last couple of weeks but unfortunately, his price has gone. If the ground were heavy I’d be tempted to keep the faith with our Midlands National winner Beauport but I’d imagine the drying ground won’t be in his favour.
Instead, at odds of 50/1, I’ll take a chance on Elvis Mail. Nick Alexander and Bruce Lynn team up with this 10yo son of Great Pretender and hopefully they’ll be coming into this race after winning with Donny Boy earlier on the card. Elvis Mail won a decent veterans’ race at Carlisle off 143 two weeks ago to book his ticket for the big one and he pitches up here off 147.
He has never won off a mark that high but he has never run over a distance this far. Alexander’s charge is unexposed at marathon trips and he is 2/3 over 26f, the longest distance he has tackled to date. His career form figures at Ayr read 3421141 and he’ll enjoy the bit of cut in the ground. Elvis Mail isn’t one for maximum stakes but he likes the track, he likes the ground and he looks well worth a shot at this extreme trip. At odds of 50/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
