2024 Premier League Night 14 Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Premier League Night 14 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 14 preview.
Night 13
Two from four on Night 13, +1.70 profit, taking the tally to date to a dizzying +2.03 points. There are only three more nights of the league stage to go before the playoffs and officially only Peter Wright cannot make the final night. In reality, Gerwyn Price and Rob Cross are in the same boat, being 12 and 10 points off fourth place respectively.
Luke Littler has a five point lead and perhaps his lighter schedule in terms of missing two Euro Tour events kept him a bit fresher coming into the business end. Nathan Aspinall took the decision not to play in anything but the PL two weeks ago and will not until it is over.
Michael Smith, Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price didn’t play in Europe last weekend either but MVG and Luke Littler did, along with Wright and Cross. It doesn’t really matter for Cross and Wright, but it was a surprise to see MVG playing both.
Michael Smith vs. Peter Wright
Smith lost out to Rob Cross in his quarter final match last week. That was a blow to his playoff chances and he is now four points off fourth place. He really can’t afford another pointless night. The good news is that he is playing Peter Wright.
Snakebite has won just one match from his fifteen PL matches so far. He finished last year’s PL with three straight defeats and his days has a PL player are surely over. It is all a bit humiliating and not good for his game.
Wright’s overall form is dire, winning just one of his last ten matches, a 6-5 win over Danny Lauby last weekend. He can still win the odd match, but at this level? He needs his opponent to quite literally, not turn up.
Declining Form
Their H2H record does offer Wright some hope, or at least something for Smith to worry about. They have only met once in this year’s PL so far, way back on Night 6, and Smith won, but he required a deciding leg. It is fair to say that Wright’s form has declined since then. He went into that match on the back of six wins from ten matches, a win rate he can only dream about right now.
Smith is the 1.38 favourite, with Wright 3.25. Smith took last weekend off to prepare for the final push for the playoffs, Peter Wright travelled to Austria and back, just to get a narrow win over Danny Lauby.
Now it is up to Aberdeen, for another pointless road trip. He will be the ‘home’ favourite, but the Scottish crowds have never embraced Wright in the same way as they have with Gary Anderson, or John Henderson even.
I will play this a little cautiously, just because Smith doesn’t have a great record against Wright, and he is the player under pressure to perform, but his odds should be shorter.
2024 Premier League Night 14 Tip: 1.5 points Michael Smith to win -1.5 legs @ 1.62 with Betfred, BET365, Hills
Luke Littler vs. Nathan Aspinall
Aspinall is totally focused on the big prize. £275000 for the PL winner. He is not going to Europe for a piddly £30000 in a Euro Tour. Littler did and picked up the £30000 for winning the Austrian Darts Open.
That means he has now won two out of three on the Euro Tour, and he is top of the PL table. He can have his cake and eat it. That will have been noticed by the no shows. The young kid just has the enthusiasm to play in everything, and win. He didn’t qualify for ET 2 and 3, so he did have time out but clearly, he isn’t feeling the tiredness that the rest of the PL players are.
Aspinall will feel vindicated in his approach to managing his schedule if he makes the play offs and banks a big cheque, and it worked for him against Michael Smith last Thursday. This will be more difficult.
Littler Dominant H2H
Littler has won nine of his last ten matches, one of which was a 6-5 win over Nathan Aspinall in the semi- final, last Thursday. Their H2H record is 5-1 to Littler. Aspinall won one match 6-3, lost two 3-6, two 4-6 and their last one 5-6.
Littler is the 1.40 favourite, Aspinall 3.10. Aspinall was the same price to beat Michael Smith last Thursday, and I would say that Littler is a tougher proposition. That said, because he is completely focused on the PL, The Asp should be able to give Littler a game, as he did in last week’s semi-final, and their last three matches.
2024 Premier League Night 14 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.20 with Betfair
Michael van Gerwen vs. Rob Cross
Cross has been honest enough to say he is just turning up to try and win the ten grand nightly prize money, which is something he hasn’t actually done so far. He has reached two finals, including last week’s.
Michael van Gerwen’s form continues to be lacking. He has lost four of his last ten matches and while he is the only player to have won four PL nights in 2024, he is only fourth in the league, thanks to losing seven quarter finals. That is over half he has played. Six of his last ten matches have seen sub 94 averages and that makes him vulnerable at this level.
Their last match was just last week, when Rob Cross won their semi-final 6-2. That was Cross’ second 6-2 win over MVG in a row. Van Gerwen won their other two 2024 PL matches 6-4. Cross seems to be back scoring well after he had a couple of weeks when his game was a bit off.
MVG is the 1.57 favourite, Cross 2.50 and I’m happy to take on Van Gerwen at those odds. The Dutchman is the player under more pressure. He is far from nailed on to make the playoffs, while Cross has all but given up.
2024 Premier League Night 14 Tip: 1 point Rob Cross to win @ 2.50 with Hills, BET365, Betfair
Gerwyn Price vs. Luke Humphries
Price withdrew from the Austrian Darts Open last weekend, citing a trapped nerve in his back. How fit he will be is anyone’s guess. These things can pass quite quickly, or can become a longer term problem.
How much practice will he have been able to do? A few unknowns. Price has lost four of his last six matches. Despite scoring well, he isn’t finishing so well. His confidence looks a bit fragile.
Humphries seems to be feeling the pace of playing PL and in the Euro Tours. He has lost five of his last ten matches but he did take the weekend off to prepare for the final PL push. He has only won two matches across the last five PL nights and while he is still in second place, he is likely to need a win or two more, just to make sure he makes the play offs.
Close H2H
Their H2H record is 9-7 to Price but Cool Hand has won their last three in a row, 6-3 and 6-2 in the PL and most recently a 7-3 win in a Euro Tour semi-final.
Neither player has been in top of form late. Humphries has taken the last week off to prepare, Price has taken the week off, but that was injury related.
luke Humphries is the 1.62 favourite, Price 2.38. Humphries has won seven of their last nine matches, and usually quite comfortably. The logical choice seems to be to back Humphries, and hope that he is refreshed after a short break.
