2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday Preview
A quick word on the two horses I put up at York on Thursday. Septic just about sums it up. Bajan Bandit started slowly and stayed out the back for the entire race. Good Earth ran a stinker too so we go back to the drawing board. We have Group 1 action this weekend with the Lockinge Stakes, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday selections are below.
1.50 Newbury – Aston Park Stakes (Group 3)
First up at Newbury is this 12f G3 for 4yo+. Last year’s St Leger third Desert Hero is 13/8 to go one better than his seasonal return at Sandown (10f gd/sft). The ground will be slightly better today but he has won on good so it shouldn’t pose any problems for the son of Sea The Stars. Bolster and Cemhaan should ensure the race is run to suit the fav and he is the one to beat.
Is there anything worth backing at a price? Cemhaan dips his toe into pattern company for the first time but I’d imagine something like the Ebor will be his next main target. Flying Honours would be of interest on his 2yo form but he’s impossible to fancy on his only two runs since. Bolster won well at Pontefract last time out but this will be far tougher up in trip on better ground.
Progressive
So Moonstruck is surely best watched after an absence so that leaves us with Maxi King. With a rating of 96 he has no chance on the figures but the son of Belardo has looked progressive this season. He is 2/2 in handicaps, winning by 5L off 82 on heavy at Ripon (10f) then following up on Guineas day at Newmarket off 90 (12f gd).
It was an impressive performance at HQ. I’d say the runner up is a fairly good horse and they pulled well clear of the rest. Maxi King should be suited by a strongly run race, which this should be, and he is entered in the G1 Eclipse so clearly, connections must think a lot of him. He should be there to do his best for Dominic Ffrench Davis, hopefully David Egan can produce him late for the place money at odds of 28/1.
2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday Tip: Maxi King e/w @ 28/1
2.05 Newmarket – Jenningsbet Handicap (Class 3)
A disappointing turnout for this 25k handicap with just seven declared. Only one of them is double figure odds, Venture Capital at 25s, and it is hard to make a solid case for him. The rest are 6/1 or shorter so this is a race we’ll be swerving. No bet.
2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.25 Newbury – Carnarvon Stakes (Listed)
A cracking listed sprint. Fourteen will go to post and with precious black type up for grabs, hopefully most will be trying. The one that I think could be overpriced massively here is Queen Of Mougins. This filly has already run at G3 level and it was a superb effort in the Dick Poole at Salisbury. She finished fourth, just 2.5L behind the winner and 2L in front of Symbology, a 14/1 poke here.
It was an excellent run on just her second start and I thought she shaped very nicely on her return at Chelmsford in a Listed contest two weeks ago. She may only have finished sixth but she was given a wide trip and Hector Crouch was very easy on her in the closing stages. She ran on well under hands and heels and she was only 1.75L away from finishing third.
Ralph Beckett’s filly won her maiden over this C&D and I’d imagine her Chelmsford spin was to get her ready for this. She is entered in the Commonwealth Cup so she must be highly thought of and on that Dick Poole run, she is better than a 90 horse. 66/1 is a head scratching price, all things considered, and at those odds, Queen Of Mougins surely has to be worth chancing e/w.
2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday Tip: Queen of Mougins e/w @ 66/1 (4 places) NB
2.40 Newmarket – Trustatrader Handicap (Class 2)
At a nice e/w price perhaps Final Stone can make his presence felt here for William Stone & Laura Pearson. A former C&D winner with multiple good efforts on the July course too, this 6yo son of Mukhadram races off 85 today, a pound lower than he was when winning on the July track last summer.
He made his comeback after a winter break at this track a fortnight ago and he looked like he would come on a bundle for the run. He was trapped out on the wing with no cover and while he was beaten over 9L at the finish, I would imagine that run was used to prep him for a crack at this much bigger pot.
Laura Pearson gets the leg up for the first time and she has an excellent record when riding for Stone, 6 wins and 8 top 4s from just 26 rides. You’d have to imagine that Stone has targeted this 100k race with Final Watch and if he can repeat the level of form he showed when fourth in a Class 2, C&D handicap off 89 in April of last year, hopefully he can hit the frame at odds of 25/1.
2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday Tip: Final Watch e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
3.00 Newbury – London Gold Cup (Heritage)
Another 100k handicap, this time over a trip of 10f. The one I’ll take a punt on with Silvestre De Sousa jocked up for the first time is Prepschool. Trained by Micheal Bell, this son of Camelot has shaped well in two starts this season. It looked like he may have needed the run on his return on soft ground at Donny, where he still finished fourth, but it was much better last time out at Sandown on good to soft.
Running off 82, Prepschool found just Goodwood Odyssey and Brioni too good. He was beat 3L for the win and was only a length or so behind Brioni in second and both those rivals re-oppose here. Bell’s charge is now 2lbs better off with Brioni and 8lbs better off with Goodwood Odyssey, yet he is 33s and those two rivals are 14s and 7/1 respectively.
Silvestre De Sousa is 10/47 with 16 top 4s when riding for Bell, which is a plus, and the ground should be perfect for Prepschool. He has a tendency to race a bit keenly at times so the likely strong pace here should help him to settle and if he can run to the same level as last time, he could easily turn that Sandown form around. At odds of 33/1, Prepschool is the each way selection.
2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday Tip: Prepschool e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)
3.15 Newmarket – Handicap (Class 3)
The only one at double figure odds that makes a bit of appeal is Good Karma. He gets in here off a mark of 88 after a below par return to action at Chelmsford a month ago. There is every chance he needed that run badly after almost a year off the track but if he could reproduce his Royal Ascot run off his current mark surely he won’t be too far away here.
At Ascot he finished 11th of 29 off a mark of 91. He was 8L behind the winner Docklands but he was only a couple of lengths behind the 6th placed horse Eighteen Carat and he has since won a 115k handicap at Sha Tin. Ramazan was racing off 97 that day and he was 1.5l ahead of Good Karma in 9th. He has since placed in Listed company and he was touched off in the Victoria Cup off 105 last week.
The fact that James Ferguson’s charge didn’t run again last season suggests that he may have suffered some sort of setback. However, it looked like he was moving well at Chelmsford and I’m hoping it was just a lack of fitness that caught him out. The return to turf is a positive, as is the step back up to a mile so at odds of 14/1, Good Karma is worth backing e/w.
2024 Newbury & Newmarket Saturday Tip: Good Karma e/w @ 14/1 NAP
3.35 – Newbury – Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
A fascinating renewal of the G1 Lockinge. French raider Big Rock heads the market for his new handler Maurizio Guamieri. I’ll be honest, I don’t know a whole lot about him but I do know that his son of Rock Of Gibraltar is a proper horse. He absolutely hosed up in the QEII stakes on Champions Day last year on soft ground but the worry is whether he’s going to be as effective on this sounder surface. He lacks a run too so I wouldn’t be steaming in at 9/4.
Inspiral beat Big Rock on nice ground at Deauville last season. She is a top class mare and she is on a four timer of G1 victories. Like Big Rock, she lacks a recent run but the ground should definitely suit her better. If I were backing either of the market leaders, I’d just about side with her.
Crown The Witch
After swerving him in the bet365 mile, it is time to row in behind Witch Hunter again. Thankfully, I talked myself out of backing him at Sandown but I thought he ran a super race, beat just 4.5L for the win by Charyn and just 3L behind the 116 and 118 rated Poker Face and Lord North. He is worse off at the weights with Poker Face here but I still don’t think he should be almost 10x his price.
The drop back to 7f wasn’t in his favour at Haydock last time out but he ran on well for third. He is a G2 winner at this track, the 7f Hungerford Stakes last season, and he was giving 5lbs to the 112 rated runner up New Endeavour and he was 4L in front of the 115 rated Chindit in third.
Clearly, he likes this track and I’d imagine Richard Hannon has had this race in mind for him for some time. The top two in the betting lack a run and I think an official rating of 111 might underestimate Witch Hunter on his Hungerford winning form. Big Rock should ensure he gets a strong pace to aim at, hopefully he can stay on late to nick the e/w money at odds of 66/1.
