2024 Premier League Playoffs Night Preview – JP
2024 Premier League Playoffs Night Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Playoffs Night preview.
Night 16
The end of the Premier League road is finally here. Night 16 saw a -0.4 point loss on the tips. Cross losing from 4-1 up was a disappointment and leaves the running total at a pathetic +1.95 points.
Michael Smith won the night which meant he overtook Nathan Aspinall for the final playoff spot and he will face Luke Littler in the opening match. That will be followed by Michael van Gerwen vs. Luke Humphries.
Just three matches tonight but they are longer ones. The two semi-finals are best of 19 legs and the final, best of 21.
Luke Littler vs. Michael Smith
An interesting one to start the night. These two played in last week’s semi-final and it was Michael Smith who won, again. Bully Boy has a good record against Littler and it is all fresh form, and all Premier League matches. Smith has won five, Littler two. Pretty convincing? In terms of total legs won, it is 33-32 to Smith, as close as a close thing can be.
Smith has played in two Premier League semi-finals, beating Gary Anderson 10-6 back in 2018, but losing 8-10 to MVG last year. His recent form is great, winning eight of his last ten matches, picking up the PC9 title a couple weeks ago, and then winning Night 16 to make the playoffs. His confidence is high and his little holiday in Las Vegas seems to have refreshed him.
New Territory
This is another bit of new territory for Littler, but nothing seems to faze him. His recent form sees seven wins from his last ten matches, but he has lost three of his last four, including that semi-final loss to Smith last week.
He was worn out when he went to Germany for ET6 and lost to Wessel Nijman but he was fresh enough last week. He beat Peter Wright 6-4, not a great result given Wright’s form, and Littler only averaged 93.36 in defeat to Smith. It wasn’t a great match by either player, but it was Smith who won it 6-5.
A few below par matches from Littler doesn’t mean he is in poor form, but facing a player against whom he has a losing record, and a few poor matches, might play on his mind a little.
Littler Too Short
Littler is the 1.44 favourite with Smith the 3.00 outsider. That is a bit disrespectful about Smith’s chances. They have only played in best of eleven leg matches, but neither player is going to be fazed by a longer match. Smith is in a good place mentally and when he is a confident player, Bully Boy is very dangerous.
2024 Premier League Playoffs Tip: 1 point Michael Smith to win @ 3.00 with BET365
Since the semi-finals started being played as a best of 19 leg format, 61% have seen over 16.5 legs. This has the look of a close match and I’ll go for a reasonably long game.
2024 Premier League Playoffs Tip: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 1.91 with Boylesports, Betfred, Fitzdares
Michael van Gerwen vs. Luke Humphries
Van Gerwen has a fantastic Premier League playoff record. He has played in ten matches and lost just one semi-final and two finals. His semi-final loss was 8-10 loss to Jonny Clayton in 2021. It is not his Premier League form that is the worry, it is his recent form. MVG has lost five of his last ten matches and three of them to Luke Humphries.
Luke Humphries is in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches, but maybe not in absolute top form. He also has MVG in his pocket, winning their last six matches. This is Humphries’ first Premier League playoff appearance but he is the World Champion, so he can handle the big events.
MVG Not Himself
We are on MVG to win the title, but he hasn’t looked himself for much of 2024. He still has a big A game but we are seeing too much of his B and C game these days. If he can stiffen the sinus and summon up the blood, then he might get the job done, but it just doesn’t look likely.
Humphries is the 1.48 favourite, MVG 2.88. One player is on the rise, the other in decline, and while MVG can still talk a good game, he just isn’t The Man anymore. He knows it, and the other players know it too.
