2024 Monaco GP Betting Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Monaco GP Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Monaco GP outright betting preview. It was a case of very close but only one cigar at Imola, fingers crossed we get a bit more luck this weekend.
2024 Monaco GP
The Emilia-Romagna GP was a disappointment betting wise. Eight bets, seven losers and a 6.17 point loss. Two lost out by 0.074 seconds, and another by 0.725 seconds. That was the tiny difference between a very good result, and bit of a disaster.
We are now -4.17 points down for the YTD. It is annoying to just miss out on McLaren’s revival, getting decent odds on them now is going to be hard. We now head straight to Monaco and a tough race to crack. I’ll not be chasing losses. There is plenty of time to catch up in a 24 race season.
Drivers’ Track
Monaco is a real drivers track. The race where the driver can make the biggest difference, good or bad, of any race on the calendar. It is important, therefore, to consider how each driver has performed in the past races in Monaco.
The circuit is slow, short, sinuous and entirely unsuited to racing modern F1 cars on. Overtaking at Imola was all but impossible and at Monaco, it is even harder. Any changes in the order tend to arise from race strategy, pitstop execution and driver error.
Being the car in front is a huge advantage but do not think that qualifying on pole position is the be all and end all. Since 2014, the driver starting on pole has won only four of the nine races. Of course, in 2021 the late withdrawal of Charles Leclerc’s car from the pole spot on the grid, meant that Max Verstappen effectively started from pole, even though he was in the second position grid box.
High Attrition
Mistakes here can be race ending and any safety car resulting from an accident, can open up the race somewhat. The attrition rate can be high. Two of the last nine races have seen seven not classifieds, but the last five have seen just seven in total, and in four of them just one driver was not classified.
Rain has been a feature in recent years, but predicting it is tricky due to the geography of the area. The track is right on the harbour front and if the weather is coming in off the sea, it is fairly predictable.
However, if it is coming in from landward direction, that is a different kettle of fish. The hills at the back of the principality can often see a big build up of threatening clouds, which don’t always deliver on that threat.
2024 Monaco GP: Team-by-Team
Red Bull
It took Max Verstappen a while to get the hang of things in Monaco. He was a bit of a crash magnet in the early years of his career, but he has finished on the podium for the last three years, including two wins.
Sergio Perez won the race in 2022 and has one other podium, but for a driver regarded as a very good street racer, this isn’t his strongest track. His crash here in FP3 last year not only ruined his weekend, but effectively ended his title chances and knocked his confidence for six. It will be interesting to see how Perez approaches his work this weekend.
Less Than Impressive
Red Bull have been less than impressive in the last two races. A sign that they have reached the end of the development potential of their car, or just two, track specific issues? My guess is the latter, but there is no doubt that McLaren and Ferrari have closed the gap.
The track surface in Miami does cause problems, and the very bumpy track surface in Imola exposed a rare Achilles’ Heel in the Red Bull. When they have to raise the ride height to compensate for the bumps, the car loses downforce and drops back into the clutches of the nearest rivals.
The Monaco track is far from billiard smooth, the low speeds mean the effects are less, but it is not an ideal track for Red Bull. This track is more about the driver, good traction and mechanical grip.
McLaren
Norris had a podium here in 2021, Piastri finished tenth on debut last year. Piastri had two second places here in F2 in 2022. Their car is now good enough to compete not just for podiums, but race wins.
Norris now has four Monaco GPs under his belt and has always got the car home. Piastri has had just the one F1 race here, along with his two F2 races. Ideally, I’d like to see a bit more track experience, but he is a level headed young man and that helps around a tricky track.
Ferrari
This is Charles’ home race, and the one he really wants to win, maybe too much. He qualified on pole in 2021 but the car was withdrawn before the start of the race when damage, caused by him crashing after setting the fastest qualifying lap, was found and the car deemed too dangerous to drive.
His best finish was fourth in 2022, and his record here leaves something to be desired. He has been the fastest qualifier twice, 2021, 2022 and was third in 2023 (later demoted for blocking), so he has the flying lap potential.
Carlos Sainz has been second twice in the last three years, and in the turbo hybrid era he has always finished in the top 10. His problem may be being outqualified by Leclerc, amongst others, but he is a capable racer around this circuit. Sainz has only qualified in the top three once.
Mercedes
Lewis Hamilton has two wins and three other podiums in the turbo hybrid era, but in the last three years, his best finish was fourth in 2023. George Russell has finished fifth for Mercedes in the last two years.
Their qualifying pace is likely to rule them out of much more than the usual 6th- 7th places. The Merecedes might be good in slow corners, or it might not, it depends on which member of the team you ask.
They will be throwing some more upgrades at the car this weekend and again in Canada.
Aston Martin
Alonso has only the one podium here since 2014, last season’s second place. Lance Stroll has just one top ten finish, an 8th place in 2021.
The team seem to have lost their way with their latest upgrade. They struggled to develop the car last year and, once again, they seem to be losing ground just as others are picking up the pace.
Visa RB
Daniel Ricciardo was something of a track specialist in his prime. One win and three other podiums. He was denied a second win when he pitted for new tyres in 2016, but despite the team having called him in, his pit crew were not ready and Hamilton jumped him for the lead and race win.
Ricciardo has had two pole positions since 2014, and a third place, another mark of a track specialist. However, the questions is, has he still got it?
Yuki Tsunoda has not finished higher than 15th in his three races here. He did qualify in 9th place last year and 11th in 2022, so don’t be surprised to see him go well on Saturday.
We had bets on both drivers at Imola, but their chances evaporated at the start, with both drivers dropping two places off the line. The team are looking at ways to improve their starts. Clearly, you cannot afford to drop places at the start, especially on tracks which allow little or no overtaking.
Haas
Continue to knock on the points door every race weekend. The car seems to be capable on all sorts of circuits. Both drivers have scored points here since 2014, Hulkenberg has had two top 6 finishes and an 8th, Magnussen a couple of top 10s.
Alpine
Their progress was halted at Imola. The race didn’t pan out as they had hoped for. A gamble was taken on tyre strategy and when no safety car transpired, things unravelled. They were not alone in this.
Alpine had a great weekend here last year. They had Ocon finishing in third place and Gasly in seventh. That was their best race of 2023. Pierre Gasly has four top seven finishes from five starts and Ocon another two top 10s to go with his podium here last year.
Williams
Albon got an eighth place here in 20219, when he was racing for Red Bull. Williams have not scored any points here since 2017. They have not made any progress with their car in 2024 and they will need luck to score points this weekend.
Stake F1
I’m not sure what the team will be calling themselves this weekend, but it won’t be fast. There is one straw for them to clutch at, however.
Their best race of the season came in China and there is part of that lap which is dominated by slow corners. In that part of the track, they were actually quite competitive. Zhou in particular.
Both cars qualified in the top 10 in the Sprint Shootout, Zhou finished ninth in the Sprint race. Bottas qualified tenth for the GP, before retiring with engine failure. That said, they were expected to be fairly competitive here last year, but weren’t.
The 2024 Monaco GP Weather
It is not always sunny on the Mediterranean coast and only last year we had a wet race. This weekend’s forecast says that all three days will be around 21 degrees.
Friday will be dry and mostly sunny, with a small chance of an afternoon shower. Saturday will see a small chance of morning showers but the afternoon should be dry. Sunday should live up to its name, mostly sunny and 21 degrees.
Summary
Monaco is odd. It wouldn’t be on the calendar but for its historic significance. It was once the jewel in the F1 crown, but now? Monaco is more of a compelling freak show. It is still quite thrilling to see F1 cars threading their way round this tiny track, trying to stay as close to the barriers as possible, but without hitting them.
Perhaps Max Verstappen’s final qualifying lap last season sums it up. He came round the final corner and gave the barrier a slight kiss with his rear right tyre, taking pole position by 0.084 seconds. Had he been a bit more conservative, left a gap to the barrier, he would not have made pole. Had he been too aggressive, he would have hit the barrier and crashed. It was racing perfection.
It is a track for the purists. Those that appreciate the skill required to get the most out of their car and themselves. It is not one for the casual fan that wants to see a race, a race with overtaking, because racing here is all but impossible.
Past Winners
It is the ultimate drivers track and one that has produced an impressive list of multiple winners. Those that that have dominated here reads like a who’s who of F1 greats. Ayrton Senna tops the list with six wins, Graham Hill and Michael Schumacher five each. Sterling Moss, Lewis Hamilton, Nico Rosberg and Alain Prost have all won three. The likes of Vettel, Alonso, Fangio, Lauda and Verstappen have won two.
It also threw up one of the longest priced winners in modern F1 history when Olivier Panis won a chaotic wet race in 1996 at odds of 301.00, but the very strong trend is that the cream rises to the top, and does so repeatedly. The car is not irrelevant, the winner is usually in a car that is a race winner already.
Overtaking Impossible
The fact that overtaking is impossible puts a premium on getting a good grid position and trying to hold on to it. Since the start of the turbo hybrid era the diver starting at the front of the grid (inc. Verstappen in 2021) has won five times, the driver in second has won twice and the driver in third also twice. Clearly, the race winner on Sunday needs to right up at the sharp end of the grid.
Qualifying this season has been dominated by Max Verstappen with seven from seven, and he is going for his ninth in a row, carrying on from last season. I think we can include him in as likely pole sitter/race winner.
Verstappen was fortunate that he got pole in Imola. But for getting for a tow from Nico Hulkenberg, it is widely agreed he would have been out qualified by both McLaren’s. The newly upgraded McLaren has put its two drivers in the frame.
Perez Unlikely For Pole
The two Ferrari drivers have average qualifying positions of 4.14 for Leclerc, and 4.16 for Carlos Sainz, the second and third best qualifiers so far in 2024. Perez is averaging 4.28 but is 0-7 with Verstappen, so I am drawing a line threw him.
Leclerc is 4-2 with Sainz, and he has upped his qualifying game in recent races. With two Monaco pole positions under his belt, one more than Verstappen, Leclerc looks to be the pick of the Ferrari drivers.
Lando Norris is 5-2 with Piastri, but neither McLaren driver has made the top three in qualifying here before. Piastri has only had one crack at it in an F1 car and Norris has never had the kind of fully competitive machinery that he has now. We have to include both McLaren drivers in the short list.
Shortlist
Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris and Piastri are my shortlist candidates to win the Monaco GP. I reluctantly rule out Carlos Sainz purely on his qualifying deficit to Leclerc, but he remains a podium contender, and if Leclerc were to drop the ball again, Sainz may be there to pick it up. So he is ruled out, but not entirely dismissed.
I don’t think we will see the likes of Alonso or Ocon crashing the qualifying party this year. Alonso was third fastest in qualifying in China, and that is perhaps a sign that he could do better than expected, but not pole.
The odds will guide the selections.
Max Verstappen is the 1.80 favourite, a big price for him to win a race in 2024, but about right. Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc are both 6.50. Oscar Piastri is 15.00.
Leclerc Gets The Nod
I am giving my backing to Charles Leclerc to win the 2024 Monaco GP. The thing that swings it is that the Ferrari has been, this year and last, just a bit better in slow corners. The characteristics of the Ferrari power unit is that it gives great power delivery out of corners, and there are plenty of them on this short lap.
That area has been a weakness for McLaren, less of a problem now granted, but it is not their greatest strength. The Red Bull is a good all-rounder, but again, they are at their best on the faster tracks.
Charles Leclerc has qualified on pole in 2021 and 2022 and was third in 2024. With all the recent winners coming from the top three, he fits the bill. The fact that he hasn’t converted any of them even into a podium is a worry.
Ferrari are a better operation these days under Fred Vasseur. Their strategy is better and we are less likely to see the sort balls up that they had here last year. Leclerc is not a banker bet, but he might not have a better chance to finally get that home win, and his odds are decent.
2024 Monaco GP Tip: 2 points Charles Leclerc to win the Monaco GP @ 6.50 with Livescorebet
Despite reluctantly ruling out Carlos Sainz for the race win, I do expect him to at least contend for a podium finish. He tends to race well here, has been second twice in the last two years and has three podiums in 2024.
Sainz has been fifth in the last three races as the McLarens have joined the party at the top. This track looks to be Ferrari friendly, and that might be enough for him to get some Champagne on Sunday.
2024 Monaco GP Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish on the podium at 3.25 with Ladbrokes
The final bet is a bit more speculative but worth taking on. Pierre Gasly has been very consistent here in Monaco. His form figures are 7/5/6/11/7. That was across three different teams, so he is the common link rather than the car.
This race was a rare highlight for Alpine last year, with Ocon getting a podium and Gasly finishing seventh. This year’s car is draggy and slow in straight line. That is not going to be such a handicap on a slow track, the cars are at full throttle for 30% of the lap, and hopefully the driver can make the difference again.
