2024 Irish Guineas Weekend Preview & Tips – DS
2024 Irish Guineas Weekend Preview & Tips
Last weekend was a bit of a struggle. Maxi King ran ok, the race just wasn’t run to suit him. Queen of Mougins wasn’t far off a place in eighth, she’ll be worth another go against her own sex. Final Watch was disappointing and Prepschool finished like he wants further. Good Karma wasn’t off a yard but at least Witch Hunter got the place at 66s. This weekend is extremely busy and Dave Stevos will be covering races from both sides of the Irish Sea. Check out his 2024 Irish Guineas Weekend Preview below.
Saturday
1.50 Haydock – Temple Stakes (Group 2)
It looks like we’ll be racing on testing ground at Haydock on Saturday. Our first selection on a very busy weekend runs in the 5f Temple Stakes and at odds of 22/1, the 3yo filly Flora Of Bermuda might outrun her odds for in form Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy.
First of all, this daughter of Dark Angel looks sure to handle the ground. Her best form by far has come on soft so conditions are ideal for her on her seasonal return. The same cannot be said for a few of the horses at the head of the market so hopefully, it’ll slow them down.
Big Evs Form
This filly is rated 101, which leaves her with a lot to find on the figures. However, she got to within 2.75L of the now 113 rated Big Evs last term at Doncaster (5f sft) so on that form, she could arguably be rated a few pounds higher.
Her only win to date came on soft ground at Goodwood (5f). On her only other run on soft she finished a decent fourth behind Fast Responder in a Newmarket G3, her last run of 2023. She does have a tendency to be slowly away at times so that’s a negative but fingers crossed she gets away on level terms on Saturday.
Andrew Balding won this race in 2022 with King’s Lynn, hopefully Flora Of Bermuda can go well for him in this renewal at odds of 22/1.
2024 Irish Guineas Weekend Tip: Flora Of Bermuda e/w @ 22/1
2.25 Haydock – Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2)
Our 2000 Guineas bet Inisherin pitches up in this 6f Group 2. To say I am surprised to see him dropping dramatically in trip is an understatement. After watching his first two races I thought a mile would be his minimum trip but he did show a fair level of speed at Newmarket so I kind of see the logic in making this move.
However, soft ground would be a big unknown and while there’s a chance he’ll handle it on breeding, there’s enough doubt for me to leave him well alone today at 9/2. The odds on fav Vandeek has won on soft so he should handle the ground. He’s well clear on ratings and it would be no surprise were he to retain his unbeaten record.
Of the outsiders, Airman makes some appeal from an e/w perspective. Richard Fahey’s unbeaten son of Dandy Man moves up in class after a narrow class 2 novice win at Hamilton last time. He gave 11lbs to the runner up Gaenari and he is a solid mid 90s horse. Even with just two places on offer, Airman is worth chancing e/w at 20/1.
2024 Irish Guineas Weekend Tip: Airman e/w @ 20/1 NB
2.30 Curragh – Greenlands Stakes (Group 2)
Split loyalties for me here. I’ll obviously be cheering for Matilda Picotte after writing about her this week (see that here). I’ll also be cheering for an old friend of the blog, Moss Tucker. Fortuntately, both horses are too short for the blog so thankfully, I can sit on the fence regarding their chances (although I will be doing a sneaky little reverse forecast).
With four places on offer, I am taking another chance on Ano Syra. We backed her at Naas last week and despite clearly needing the run, she ran really well to finish 2L behind Aesop’s Fables in third. Her form figures at the Curragh on good ground read 1233, with the three placed efforts coming in G3 and G2 company over 6f. Odds of 66/1 look far too big and with four places on offer, Ano Syra is the e/w selection.
2024 Irish Guineas Weekend Tip: Ano Syra e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)
3.40 Curragh – Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)
Just eight run in the Irish 2000 Guineas and Rosallion looks a worthy fav. He ran a huge race at Newmarket three weeks ago and this is his ground. Richard Hannon also runs Haatem and he looks a fair price at 13/2. Yes, he is more exposed than most of these but he’s almost guaranteed to run to 115/116 and that could be enough to get the place money here.
Of the outsiders, Bright Stripes is the one that appeals most. Andy Oliver has some nice horses this season and this son of Starspangledbanner landed a listed race last time out over C&D. The ground was soft that day but it was good when he won his maiden at Naas and he also ran very well in a 6f maiden here last season on decent ground.
With a rating of 102, he’s going to need to improve but that is not an impossibility. This isn’t the strongest Guineas of all time and he might only need one of the single figure odds horses to underperform to nick a place. At odds of 33/1, Bright Stripes is the e/w selection.
2024 Irish Guineas Weekend Tip: Bright Stripes e/w @ 33/1
Sunday
3.10 Curragh – Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1)
Auguste Rodin is the odds on favourite for this 10f heat but can he be trusted? He was beaten at short odds on his seasonal return last year and three of his last seven runs have been absolute shockers. He did win the other four but there’s surely more reliable odds on shots out there.
Mashhoor is also a bit in and out but he’s 28/1 and it might be worth chancing that the return to good ground at the Curragh sparks a revival. He ran ok last time out at Chester but I’m not sure that track suited him. It was definitely an improvement on his seasonal return here in April but he was never going to be suited by the heavy ground that day.
When he has got good ground at the Curragh Mashhoor has form figures of 111. He won a handicap and a G3 at 10f and a Listed race at 12f. He gave 5lbs and a 5L beating to the 115 rated Al Riffa here in that Curragh G3 last July and if he could repeat that, surely it would be enough for him to place here. At odds of 28/1, he is the e/w selection.
2024 Irish Guineas Weekend Tip: Mashhoor e/w @ 28/1 NAP
3.45 Curragh – Irish 1000 Guineas (Group 1)
The girls take centre stage on Sunday and fourteen fillies have been declared for the 1000 Guineas. Last year’s easy Marcel Boussac winner Opera Singer is the 11/4 fav but she hasn’t been seen since. Is the daughter of Justify another City Of Troy? A few of her siblings didn’t train on at 3 so it is a distinct possibility. I’ve heard rumours that she has grown to 16.3 hands tall but I am awaiting on Aidan O’Brien’s chin for confirmation.
Alpheratz has never run on ground as quick as this but she hasn’t actively avoided it. The weather has simply been crap whenever she has run and it was encouraging to see her win on soft at Killarney last time on what was arguably the best ground she has raced on to date.
Decent G3 Form
That Killarney race wasn’t the strongest but she ran a cracker in a heavy ground G3 here back in March (8f). It wasn’t quite as good the next day dropped back to 7f at Leopardstown but she wasn’t disgraced in fifth, 3.5L behind A Lilac Rolla and 0.5L behind Buttons (both 10/1 shots here).
On pedigree, she should handle good ground. Her dam is a half to a number of fast ground winners and I was at the Curragh the day her sire, Phoenix Of Spain, galloped to victory on fast ground in the Irish 2000 Guineas in May 2019. He is 9/53 with his runners on good to soft or worse and his progeny are 9/35 on good or quicker.
This looks a very open renewal and in the hope that she relishes these new conditions, Alpheratz is the e/w selection at 25/1.
