2024 Monaco GP Raceday Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Monaco GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Monaco GP Raceday preview. He fired in a nice three point winner in qualifying, hopefully another profitable day lies ahead.
2024 Monaco GP Raceday Update
With Leclerc on Pole, Sainz in third and Gasly tenth, I’d settle for a one lap race behind the safety car.
That said, with no overtaking, that is what we may well get over a race distance. However, things happen at Monaco, things that can mess things up. Two years ago it was rain and total incompetence which cost Ferrari a win. Hopefully those days are gone at Ferrari. The strategists were culled and a new group put in place, and so far so good.
No Guarantees
Being on pole, contrary to popular belief, does not guarantee a race win here. It is a big advantage, but the race has to be executed to perfection. The driver has to have full concentration for the whole race, and tiredness can be a factor. Mentally switching off for a few seconds can end your race, it even happened to Senna once.
Pit stops have to be perfect, and strategy. The car must be reliable, and luck plays a part. A driver can do everything right, the team can execute the race perfectly, but someone down the pecking order crashes, brings out a safety car and somebody gets a lucky ‘free’ pit stop to steal the lead, as we saw in the F2 race earlier.
Turbo Hybrid Era
In the turbo Hybrid era, (nine races) the driver that started on pole has won five times, including Verstappen in 2021 who started from the defacto pole after Leclerc’s withdrawal. The driver starting from second has won twice, but only once has not finished on the podium.
The driver starting third has also won twice and only twice missed out on a podium. The top three on the grid finishing in exactly the same order has happened three times.
We have our ante post bet on Leclerc to win, Carlos Sainz to finish on the podium and Gasly to finish in the points. Statistically, we have a better chance of Sainz winning the podium bet than Leclerc to win the race.
We have 2 points on Leclerc to win the race at 6.50. He is now available to lay at 1.49. It would be reckless not to at least cover your stake, but hopefully the ante post bet will come in. We are due one.
Strange GP
The Monaco GP is a strange one. The best bets are good ante post ones, and we have those. We are now in the lap of the racing gods. Trying to predict what will happen on race day is guess work.
Most races you can look at tyre strategy, race pace and so on. At Monaco, it is all about track position, luck and perfect execution. A slow car can do surprisingly well, so long as it has track position and a decent driver.
Likewise, you can be in the fastest car, but if you are down the field, you need mega luck to get a result. It can happen, the driver who started 14th in today’s F2 race, won.
Having a bet on race day is usually more profitable, but at Monaco it is hard to be creative with selections. The logical thing to do is to back someone to hold position and hope that you don’t get shafted by a safety car, or the driver hitting the wall.
Weather
The weather always needs to be checked at Monaco. Rain is one thing that can really turn things upside down. The early forecast has been spot on so far and today’s forecast is for more of the same. 21 degrees, partly cloudy with 0% chance of rain.
We really are sorted for E’s and Whizz, ante post wise. There is no need to be adding more bets, unless something sticks out.
2024 Monaco GP RaceDay Bets
I mentioned that being creative with bet selection is especially hard here, but it sometimes pays to be a contrarian. The common perception of the Monaco GP is that the pole position driver always wins and I have dealt with that above.
Another common perception is that there is always at least one safety car. The reality is the chance of a safety car in Monaco is 57%. As such, the logical bet is on NO safety car.
2024 Monaco GP RaceDay Tip: 1 point No safety car @ 5.50 with BET365
A high attrition rate is another misperception. Yes, it can be high, very high, but in four of the last five years, there has been just one driver not classified four times. A dry race helps and we are getting that today. We have had five races with over 17.5 classified finishers from the first seven in 2024.
