2024 Canadian GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2024 Canadian GP Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Canadian GP outright betting preview. Things couldn’t have gone much better in Monaco, fingers crossed for more profits in Montreal.
2024 Canadian GP Preview
After a few frustrating races, we finally found the back of the net in Monaco. Five winners from six bets and a 22.10 point profit. That means we are 16.93 points up on the season so far.
This weekend’s 2024 Canadian GP marks the start of the second third of the twenty four race season. Including this weekend, there are sixteen races to go. It isn’t so long ago that sixteen races was a season.
The first eight races have seen four different race winners from three different teams. Max Verstappen’s early season dominance has evaporated and his lead now stands at just 31 points from Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc.
Red Bull’s lead in the Constructors Championship is now only 24 points. It is beginning to look like we have a much more competitive season on our hands.
Can we expect Red Bull’s woes to continue in Montreal? Possibly.
2024 Canadian GP: The Track
The Circuit de Giles Villeneuve is another quasi street circuit and that in itself is a warning that Red Bull may be in a bit of bother this weekend.
The layout of the circuit is quite strange. It is fast for a street circuit, it requires a low downforce set up, so completely different to Monaco. There are fourteen corners but in reality, there are four chicanes and two hairpins.
It is very much a point and squirt sort of lay out. Good slow corner performance, good braking, traction and acceleration out of them, along with good straight line performance will be rewarded.
Kerb Contact
A fast lap around this track requires the drivers to hit the kerbs through the various chicanes. Watching a video of Max Verstappen’s pole setting lap last year, I saw him hit eight kerbs. The track was wet for qualifying last year and as such, the drivers will have been trying to keep off the kerbs, but you cannot really avoid them and go fast.
The attrition rate in the eight races in the turbo Hybrid era sees an average of 3.5 not classifieds and in six of the eight races, there have been two or three not classifieds. So far in 2024, the average not classified rate is exactly 2.0, so I would expect something similar this weekend.
The driver starting on pole position has won six of the last eight races here. There are three DRS zones and we should get more in the way of overtaking than we have seen in some of the recent races.
2024 Canadian GP: Team-by-Team
Red Bull
Has the Red Bull bubble burst? Verstappen has failed to win two of the last three races and the one he did win, was by less than a second. Sergio Perez’ form has collapsed and they are under pressure for the first time in the ground effect era.
The car has not suddenly become crap, but it does have a weakness that has been exposed on the last two tracks. It does not cope well with a bumpy track surface, and that includes tracks with a lot of kerb riding. Like Montreal.
Signs In Singapore
We saw it last year in Singapore. To cope with the bumpy track surface the team had to soften the suspension and raise the ride height. That was enough to reduce the downforce produced from the underside of the car.
The problem may be a little worse than it was last year. The suspension layout remains the same, but the suspension arms have been tweaked for aerodynamic gains. It seems that those gains have caused more problems on the bumpier tracks.
The good news for Red Bull is that there are more tracks on which they will be strong than ones which cause them problems. We just have happened to see two in row.
Kerbs A Negative
Montreal does look like another, but it is not entirely clear that it will be. Certainly, the necessity to ride the kerbs cannot be avoided, and that is a negative for Red Bull. However, since we were last here, the track has been resurfaced, and that should produce a smoother surface, and that is a positive for Red Bull.
Max Verstappen has won the last two Canadian GPs but it has not been a happy hunting ground for Sergio Perez. Since 2014 Perez has only had three top 10 finishes, with a best of fifth in 2017 when he was driving for Force India. Given that his recent form has gone down the plughole, he may be a driver to oppose this weekend. Perez has failed to reach Q3 here for the last two years.
Ferrari
The prancing horse has been galloping at full speed since its upgrades at Imola. Their win in Australia earlier in the season, was a bit fortuitous, but they dominated at Monaco. Winning in Monaco is nice, but it is the biggest outlier on the F1 calendar. It is not a good form guide for many other tracks.
Ferrari need to get back to work as we are heading towards a series of races on more traditional, Red Bull friendly tracks. However, Montreal is another outlier, which may give them another chance to win, or at least be in the mix.
Kerb Kings
They have a car which is the class of the field when it comes to kerb riding. Their turbo is also very effective at delivering power out of slow corners, and like Monaco, that will be rewarded by this layout.
Charles Leclerc has always finished in the points in his four races in Montreal. His best finish was a third place in 2019. Calos Sainz was second for Ferrari in 2022 but other than that, his record is indifferent.
McLaren
Like Ferrari, McLaren have returned to race winning form. Lando Norris triumphed in Miami and came very close at Imola. Oscar Piastri got his first podium of the season in Monaco, but he will need to improve on his qualifying pace compared to Norris.
It must be said that Montreal has not been a good venue for Norris. He has not scored a point here from three starts and McLaren have not scored a single point in Montreal since 2014.
The layout of this track, with its many chicanes, is not unlike Imola, and Norris was a close second there, Piastri fourth. They should be able to get a decent points haul this time round, but maybe expecting a race win is asking too much on what is a bogey track for the team.
Merecedes
Yet another upgrade is being put on the Mercedes this weekend. The new front wing, which was on George Russell’s car in Monaco, will be on both cars this weekend.
The team say that they are making progress and that the new front wing design will give the car a bigger sweet spot. It should be a better all-rounder, less peaky, but they are not ready to join the big three at the front.
Maybe they will show well on Friday again. That seems to be their strongest day in 2024, so if you are having a flutter on FP1 and FP2, keep them in mind. The team are optimistic that this track may suit their car quite well.
Hamilton Has Form
Montreal was the scene of Lewis Hamilton’s first win in F1 back in 2007 and he has won seven Canadian GP’s. George Russell’s best finish was fourth in 2022.
Hamilton has finished on the podium for the last two years and it has been a good track for the team, even in the ground effect era. Their problem is that McLaren and Ferrari have made much more progress in 2024, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Mercedes in the top 6 again.
Aston Martin
Suffered their first pointless race of 2024 in Monaco. They have not managed a double points finish since race three. Aston Martin have been outscored by Visa RB in the last three races and they are now just twenty points ahead of the Red Bull B team.
Alonso is not happy and since qualifying in third place in China, he hasn’t made Q3 in the last three qualifying sessions. It seems that, like last season, Aston Martin are losing in the Development Wars.
Alonso finished second here last year, and Stroll ninth. The Canadian has scored points in four of his five races here, but with Mercedes making some progress, Visa RB and even Alpine getting closer, Aston Martin are getting squeezed.
Visa RB
Eleven points scored in their last three races and their tails are up, at least in Yuki Tsunoda’s case. He has scored nineteen of their twenty four points and Ricciardo is yet to score in any of the actual Grand Prix.
If you take away Tsunoda’s 19th in the Chinese qualifying session, he is averaging 9th in qualifying and he has finished in the points in five of the last six races. He has yet to score a point in Montreal, but he will be in the frame this weekend.
Haas
Pointless in the last three Grand Prix, but they, or I should say Hulkenberg, are usually thereabouts for a points finish on Sunday.
Magnussen somehow avoided picking up the penalty points which would mean him missing a race, after he was mostly to blame for the big first lap smash up in Monaco. It is only a matter of time for a driver who is clearly unravelling.
Hulkenberg is off to Audi next season and he is in great form. He has a good track record here, finishing in the points in six of his last seven Canadian GPs. Magnussen, on the other hand, has scored just once, way back in 2014.
Williams
Alex Albon’s ninth place finish in Monaco means that Williams have moved up to 8th place in the constructors’ table.
Getting a good result in Monaco doesn’t tell us much, except that the driver made the difference. He qualified ninth, and that was enough in what was the dullest race for a long time.
Their car remains overweight, by around 15kg, and that costs something like half a second on ‘regular’ circuits. Monaco was not a regular circuit and that weight problem is likely to drag them back here this weekend.
Albon did well here last year, finishing in seventh place, his joint best finish of 2023. Last year’s Williams had prodigious straight line speed, which was rewarded here and at Monza, but I don’t think this year’s car has that same quality. It is very competitive for the minor points, and others have better claims.
Alpine
Pierre Gasly landed his first point of the season in Monaco and he was a nice winner for us there. The driver can make the difference in Monaco and he maxed out the cars performance in qualifying and from then on, it was just a matter of keeping it away from the walls.
He was lucky with the red flag caused by the Magnussen – Perez crash on lap 1. His teammate, Esteban Ocon, tried an overly optimistic overtake on Gasly. That caused enough damage to end Ocon’s race, but the 40 minute delay for the restart, allowed the team to be able to fix Gasly’s car.
Ocon On The Way Out
It was announced on Monday that Ocon’s contract will not be renewed at the end of the season. Last week’s events will not have helped, but it was common knowledge that both Alpine drivers are looking at pastures new for 2024.
He now has sixteen races to put himself in the shop window, but he is going to get frozen out as the season goes on. Alpine want to resign Gasly for next year and he will now become their defacto number 1 driver. Ocon won’t like it, and he can be a bit of an idiot at times, so do not rule out more teammate clashes.
Ocon has a very good record in Canada, finishing in the top nine in all four starts. However, he will face a 5 place grid penalty for his crash with Gasly in Monaco. Gasly has just the one top 10 from his four starts here.
Kick Sauber
Now the only team without any points on the board. They just don’t look like scoring and even Bottas’ good record here (top ten for the last eight races) won’t save them this weekend.
The team have gone backwards, even from their lowly ninth place in last year’s Constructors’ Championship. At least they have fixed the problems with their pit stops, but the car just lacks pace.
The Weather Forecast
The early forecasts are saying that rain will be a feature of the weekend. Friday is set to be 21 degrees, mostly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers throughout the day. Saturday will be a mix of sunshine and showers, a 90% chance of showers throughout the day, and cooler at 18 degrees.
Race day looks set to be cloudy, 22 degrees with a 25% chance of thunderstorms. That could make for an interesting qualifying session if we do get afternoon showers, but the race looks like being another dry one, albeit with a chance of a thunderstorm to mix things up.
The track has been completely resurfaced and it remains to be seen how this newer tarmac surface will react to rain. It can make the surface extra slippy, but as the track is used for local traffic, it may have taken the oily sheen off it.
2024 Canadian GP: Summary
It is clear that Red Bull are on the back foot on bumpy tracks, or tracks that require a lot of kerb riding. The Circuit de Gilles Villeneuve is a track where you have to ride the kerbs to set a fast lap time.
I do not expect Red Bull to have quite the same problems as at Monaco, but this does not look like a good layout for their current car. Their second driver’s fragile confidence has taken a hit and on a track where he has not enjoyed any great success, Perez may well have another difficult weekend.
He has just been given a two year contract extension, which may give him a boost and it certainly takes the pressure to perform off his shoulders.
Red Bull Challengers
McLaren and Ferrari are the two teams currently able to challenge Red Bull for race wins and podiums.
Charles Leclerc was able to dominate in Monaco. His qualifying prowess was rewarded and all he had to do was cruise and collect on Sunday. The first lap red flag removed any race strategy from the equation and it wasn’t a classic race or performance, but it was his home race and he was a very happy boy.
Leclerc In With A Shout
The Ferrari is regarded as the best kerb rider on the grid and that should pay dividends on this circuit. It would still be a bigger challenge to win here than in Monaco, but he is in with a shout. Leclerc has finished every race of the season in the top four, with the one win and four other podiums. That is very good consistency.
He has worked on tyre preparation in qualifying and he has outqualified his teammate in the last four races. He is Ferrari’s best hope. In a wet race, maybe Carlos Sainz would get the vote, but with the forecast suggesting a more than likely dry race, Leclerc remains their lead driver.
Unconvincing
McLaren won in Miami with Norris. It wasn’t a totally convincing win in my book. Yes, Norris was very fast when he got the clean air, but he was helped by a well-timed safety car. But for that, would he have won?
He was maybe one lap shy of winning at Imola but he was never looking like the winner until the dying laps when Verstappen lost his tyre performance.
Norris is never one to talk up his chances and he is already suggesting that Ferrari’s kerb riding abilities puts them ahead of the McLaren this weekend. Expectation management, or a realistic assessment?
Oscar Piastri is beginning to look like a winner in waiting, but his second place in Monaco was his first podium of the season. Norris is the better qualifier and has racked up three podiums and a race win.
I will go with Charles Leclerc for the second race in a row. There is a reason to believe that he may have a small car advantage this weekend. His is in top form and there is a good vibe at Ferrari, and it hasn’t been often I have been able to say that in recent years.
2024 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to win the Canadian GP @ 7.50 with Hills
With the risk of too many eggs in the Ferrari basket, I will back Carlos Sainz to get his fifth podium of the season. He is four from seven in 2024 and like Leclerc, Sainz can take advantage of his car’s likely strengths over the kerbs.
His track record is not stellar, but he was second here in 2022. If we do get wet sessions, that would improve his chances and there are showers possible on all three days.
2024 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish on the podium @ 3.75 with Ladbrokes
I was considering backing Lewis Hamilton for a top six finish. It is one of his strongest tracks, the lay out suits his late braking abilities, and being the scene of his first F1 win, it is a special place for him.
The problem with a top 6 is that with Ferrari and McLaren likely to be up there, along with Verstappen, and maybe Perez, it is a bit tight for a 2.25 bet.
Hamilton made a comment that he didn’t expect to outqualify George Russell for the rest of 2024. A thinly veiled hint that Mercedes are favouring Russell in some way. Russell is 7-1 in qualifying, but the actual time gap between the two is small.
It is also that case that overtaking and order changes are a lot easier here than in Monaco, or Imola. Hamilton has finished ahead of Russell in two of the last three races in 2024 and both races as his Mercedes’ teammates in Montreal.
2024 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to beat George Russell @ 1.90 with Unibet, Livescorebet
Looking at the odds for a points finish is always interesting. We got Gasly in Monaco at nice odds, but that was a track where driver form is so much more important than anywhere else.
I was thinking that we might get some tasty odds on Lance Stroll, for example. However, he is just 1.91 and despite a good point scoring record on home soil, he has just three top 10s from the first eight races this season.
Nico Hulkenberg is always worth considering. He also has three top 10s, but his odds are a more generous 2.50. He is better value than Stroll, given Aston Martin’s update flops, and Hulkenberg has a better track record than the Canadian. Haas were poor here last year, which is a worry, however.
Tsunoda Blooming
A more conservative, but more realistic call is Yuki Tsunoda. The Japanese driver appears to be blooming in 2024. I say appears, because he might just be looking good thanks to Daniel Ricciardo being so poor.
Who knows, the Visa RB might be a better car than even Tsunoda’s results suggest. Whatever it is, Tsunoda has scored points in five of the last six Grand Prix, moving him up to 10th in the Drivers’ Championship.
2024 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points @ 1.73 with Betfred
One final bet is for Friday’s Free Practice session. There are two drivers who make some appeal for small stakes e/w bets.
Oscar Piastri has featured in the top 2 in three of the last four FP1 sessions and was third in Bahrain. FP1 sessions tend to see the tracks being a bit lower on grip as the rubber hasn’t gone down on the track. On the tracks like Monaco, Miami and China, it is more so.
They only get used once a year and Piastri was second fastest on all three of those tracks, in FP1. Montreal has been resurfaced, so it will definitely be green.
George Russell was third fastest in FP1 in Monaco (Hamilton first) and second at Imola. A sign that Mercedes have been running their power units at a higher setting than other teams? Possibly. They have been bringing new parts to each race and may want to gather ‘full fat’ data, rather than running short of what they would do in the race.
Russell makes some appeal, but Piastri has impressed on the low grip, once a year tracks and is a bigger price. The upgraded McLaren is also producing a lot of downforce, more than they actually expected, and that would be handy on a wet track.
