2024 US Open Golf Betting Preview – JP
2024 US Open Betting Preview
The golfing season is progressing rapidly and this week, we have the 2024 US Open Golf. James Punt came up dry at the PGA Champs but he tipped up Scotty Scheffler to win The Masters so hopefully we can get back amongst the winners.
2024 US Open Golf
The 124th US Open returns to Pinehurst No.2 in North Carolina. Regarded as one of the world’s best courses, it is a long, 7548 yard par 70 track which demands long, straight drives and good long iron play.
The Bermuda grass greens are designed like upturned saucers, so any approaches landing near the sides will not hold and will run off into collection areas, making getting up and down in two tricky.
US Open courses are set up to be tough. There is only one hole that features water but there are a lot of bunkers to avoid. The rough here is actually what is described as native sand areas with wire grass. There has been some 20,000 extra sprigs of the wire grass planted for this event, so there is more chance of getting a bad lie when missing the fairways.
Only Two Par 5s
The course only has two par 5s, long ones, and the distinguishing feature of the course is its length. The players will be hitting more long irons than usual and with firm and fast conditions forecast it will be a challenging set up, as per usual for US Opens.
Many of the greens are raised and hard to hold, anything off the mark will roll off into collection areas. Birdies are hard to come by and 9 under was the winning score the last time the US Open was played here, won by Martin Kaymer.
The odds of the US Open winners have been quite big in recent years, Wyndham Clark was the 67.00 winner last year. I tipped him up…but sadly for the preceding US PGA, where he missed the cut. Gary Woodland was 81.00 in 2019. The last fourteen winners, only one was single figure odds, Jordan Spieth in 2015.
Scrambling Important
The last two winners here, Martin Kaymer and Michael Campell, were ranked top 10 for fairways hit, top 20 for greens in regulation, top 10 for total driving and top 3 for putts per GIR. Kaymer was also ranked first for scrambling, and getting up and down from the collection areas is important here. It will be a stern test of the all-round golf game, not just bombing it off the tee.
Kaymer’s story was a strange one. He was world number 1 at the time of winning, but he was regarded as a poor player around the greens, he was not a prolific chipper of the ball. He got round that by using the putter from off the greens.
Kaymer went on to win by eight shots and ended up with that stat as the number 1 for scrambling. There is more than one way to skin a cat and he had the imagination to see another way.
It may pay to look outside the usual suspects. Twelve of the last fifteen US Open winners had never previously won a major title. First time major winners are usually big odds so I will cast my net away from the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy.
2024 US Open Golf: First Round Leader
I should stick to backing first round leaders as many selections get off to a good start only to go backwards as the weekend unfolds.
Henley has been the first round leader in the US Open twice in the last six years. He has a game that should be well suited to the demands of this course. Henley is a four time PGA Tour winner, currently ranked 17th in the world.
He has had four top four finishes on tour this season and he is in decent form, with finishes of 12/10/23/27 from his last four events played. He lacks distance off the tee, and that is a serious worry, but makes up for it with accuracy, ranked 5th off the tee.
The rest of his game is solid all round, he is very good on and around the greens. Two of his four tour wins came on Bermuda grass greens, which is another positive.
2024 US Open Golf Tip: 0.5 point e/w Russell Henley to be first round leader @ 81.00 with Fitzdares
Outright Selections
First of all, if you want to back the most likely winner, back Scotty Scheffler. He is the best player in the world by a margin, his game is strong in so many departments and he has just become a first time dad. He is in a very good place on and off the course.
If he can just employ a driver for the week, he should have trouble free event. The only downside is that his best odds are just 4.00. He has won two of the last ten majors, so there is not a lot of value there.
It is up to the individual to decide on which each way terms you choose. Some firms are going top five only, but with bigger odds, or you can get all the way to top 12 places, with smaller odds.
Viktor Hovland
Hovland has three US Open top 20s and has finished in the top seven in four of his last seven majors. He missed the cut at The Masters and after that, decided to ditch his new coach, returned to his old one, and finished third in the USPGA last month. He tuned up with a fifteenth place last weekend.
Last year he won both Players Championships, on the PGA tour and the BMW Championship on the DP World Tour, the two flagship events of both tours. He can win big events.
He is not outstanding in any area, but a good all-rounder and one of the better players off the tee. His weakness is around the green. Perhaps he can summon up the memory of Martin Kaymer and putt his way around the greens. He has been known to do just that.
2024 US Open Golf Tip: 0.5 point e/w Victor Hovland to win @ 17.00 with Betfred (e/w 1/5 odds 1-10)
Tommy Fleetwood
Three top five finishes from his last seven US Opens, Fleetwood is a bit of a forgotten man. He has yet to pick up a Major Championship but has been runner up twice and has been top ten in four of his last seven, including a third at this year’s Masters.
Fleetwood has a fine record in US Opens and he fits the bill as a potential first time major winner. He has not yet won on the PGA Tour, five times a runner up, but he puts himself in the frame on a regular basis.
The firm and fast conditions should suit a player brought up on links courses and he has a good driving and scrambling game.
2024 US Open Golf Tip: 0.5 point e/w Tommy Fleetwood to win @ 36.00 with SpreadEx (e/w 1/5 odds 1-7)
Denny McCarthy
It would rude not have a rank outsider in the selection list. McCarthy was seventh in the 2022 US Open and was twentieth in 2023. He is in reasonable form with a couple of top six finishes in his last seven events and just one missed cut.
His weakness is off the tee, so he may crash and burn in that department, but he is ranked second for shots gained putting and fifth for scrambling. What he may lose off the tee, he makes up for at the business end.
2024 US Open Golf Tip: 0.25 point Denny McCarthy to win @ 126.00 with SpreadEx (e/w 1/5 odds 1-7)
Top GB and Ireland Player
Tom McKibbin may not be on many shortlists, but he is returning to the scene of a landmark win for him in his junior days.
He had to come through qualifying to get here and birdied five of the last seven holes to win his place. He learned his golf at Hollywood Golf Club, just outside Belfast, Northern Ireland. That of course was Rory McIlroy’s home club back in the day.
McKibben was the World Amateur number 1 in 2015. He turned pro in 2021, graduated to the DP World Tour for the 2023 season, winning the European Open that season. He defended that title two weeks ago, finishing a creditable T8th, his third top ten from his last five events. McKibben is up to 25th in the DP World Tour rankings.
Course Form
McKibben was particularly determined to qualify for this event as it is the venue where he won the Kids’ World Golf Championship in 2015. He says that playing in his first major at a venue with such happy memories has got him very excited. Tom is hoping to get some practice in with Rory and/or Shane Lowry, but he is familiar with the course and its challenges.
He is aided by having the hugely experienced Dave McNeilly as his caddie. McNeilly has carried the bag for the likes of Nick Faldo, Padraig Harrington and Nick Price amongst many, so he knows the ropes when it comes to majors. He is playing well, and his youthful enthusiasm combined with an old head on the bag, could be a good mix.
