2024 Austrian GP Sprint Qualifying Preview – JP
2024 Austrian GP Sprint Qualifying Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Austrian GP Sprint Qualifying preview. He has already posted his outright preview, see that here.
2024 Austrian GP Sprint Qualifying
Just the one hour long practice session before we have the first of two qualifying sessions, so really very little to go on.
Mercedes were arguably the most impressive. They only ended up fifth and eighth, but Hamilton never ran on anything other than the hard tyre, and Russell aborted his flying lap on the softs when he hit traffic. Up to then, they looked in good shape.
Max Verstappen was the quickest, and by 0.276 from Piastri. On a very short, fast lap like this, that is a sizeable gap. It wasn’t all plain sailing, he caused a red flag when his car stopped on track with a dead power unit. However, it was a case turning it off and back on a again, and he was straight back out. Perez was back in twelfth but his flying lap was aborted because of traffic.
Traffic Issues
Traffic, that is going to be a much used world in both the qualifying sessions this weekend. Getting a clean lap in around here with even ten cars out on track is hard. In Q1, we could see all twenty. The pit crew have a big part to play in finding a gap in the traffic, and also to warn their drivers of faster cars coming behind their drivers. If they fail to get out of the way, they may well pick up grid penalties.
McLaren have introduced a new front wing and suspension, which is a bit of a risk in a sprint race format. Piastri was second fastest, but a fair chunk off Verstappen on the same tyres. Norris set the fastest time in the first sector, but missed his braking into the off camber turn four and was off into the gravel.
Ferrari did get flying laps on the softs from both drivers but ended up over three tenths off Verstappen’s time. That is way off.
Hard To Predict
It is hard to say with any great conviction who is looking good after that session. Mercedes got the nod from McLaren boss Andres Stella, which may be a hint, but there is only one bet I will strike for the upcoming session.
As usual with these sprint race weekends, the various markets are minefields to negotiate. Make sure you are betting in the right qualifying market. It is either ‘The Shootout’, or ‘Sprint Qualifying’.
We have seen four different drivers get the last four pole positions in 2024. It is very competitive. Monaco always looked like Ferrari’s to win, but apart from that you can make a case for Verstappen, Norris, or either Mercedes’ driver.
Close
The one theme that strikes me is just how close it has been recently. Three of the last four qualifying sessions have seen a winning margin of less than 0.01 seconds. Montreal even saw exactly the same time between Russell and Verstappen.
In the two Shootout qualifying sessions here in 2023 and 2022, the winning margin has been 0.029, and 0.048. Of the ten ‘normal’ qualifying sessions between 2014 and 2021, five of the eight were under 0.0100 seconds. That is just a function of a short lap.
Combine that with the situation at the moment where it is just not one or two drivers in the mix, and you have a recipe for another very fine margin for sprint pole.
