2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Preview
I have already posted a couple of tips for Saturday on my own blog. One for the July Cup and another for the mile handicap at 2.50. Both those tips were put up in anticipation of a very wet Thursday and Friday, but now the forecast is only giving 7mm overnight for Newmarket. We live in hope. As well as action from HQ, we also have action from Ascot and the Knavesmire. Check out our 2024 Newmarket & York Saturday preview below.
1.45 Ascot – 5F Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Just the eleven races on ITV tomorrow, including three between 2pm and 2.20pm. What could possibly go wrong… Anyway, we better crack on because there’s an awful lot of races to get through.
First up is this sprint handicap and it is a valuable one. The ground on the sprint course is good to soft in places and the one that looks overpriced to me at 16/1 is Lethal Nymph. This 5yo son of Lethal Force has been knocking on the door this season and I hope it will open for him this afternoon.
In three of his four last starts he has finished 2nd in valuable handicaps at York (5f gd/sft) and Thirsk (5f gd/sft) and last time out, he ran a blinder in the Rockingham at the Curragh (5f yld), beaten just 2L into third off a mark of 84.
This lad hasn’t won since September 2022 but the return to Ascot could be just what the doctor ordered. This is where he last got his head in front (over 6f off 89) and he also won off 86 here a few weeks before that.
His last visit to Ascot came in October last year and he ran a lovely race in fifth off 92 behind Rohaan. He was getting 10lbs off him that day, with Aiden Brooke’s claim he gets 18lbs from him today. Lethal Nymph has a grand draw in stall 12, if he continues in the same form as his last few runs, he surely won’t be far away at odds of 16/1.
2024 Ascot Saturday Tip: Lethal Nymph e/w @ 16/1 (5 places) NB
2.00 York – John Smith’s Racing Handicap (Class 2)
Two years ago, I put Imperial Fighter up for the Irish 2000 Guineas at 50/1. He ran a blinder to finish third but it is safe to say, it has been downhill since then. After a winless seven race campaign for Andrew Balding in 2023 he was sold for just 30 grand at the HIT sales and Jamie Osborne has been tasked with turning his fortunes around.
It wasn’t a bad return to action at Newmarket over an inadequate 7f off 97. He was beaten a little bit further at Sandown last time over 8f but he was slow away and he never managed to get into the race. The handicapper has dropped him another 3lbs to 92 and on even some of his runs last season, that could be very workable.
At Epsom last June he was only beat 5L in a G3 by Regal Reality off level weights. A repeat of that run would probably be enough to win this. As would a repeat of his only previous run at York, a G3 second behind Royal Patronage when he was a 2yo.
Osborne also has him entered in the Golden Mile at Goodwood next month, the venue of his sole career win. It’ll be tight as to whether he’ll sneak into that race but if he wins this, he will get a 3lbs penalty which would mean he would almost definitely get in. Maybe he’s gone at the game, but I don’t think he tried too hard the last twice and off a mark of 92, it is worth chancing that some of the old spark remains at odds of 40/1.
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: Imperial Fighter e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
2.12 Newmarket – Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
Not really a race that makes much appeal. Asian Daze wasn’t disgraced at Ascot last time but I’m not sure one could argue she is well treated off 97. No bet.
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.20 Ascot – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2)
Usually, War Front’s progeny are best known for their exploits on rattling quick ground. Ancient Rome has won on firm in America but the vast majority of his best form has come on good to soft. He’s the second highest rated in the race here with a mark of 110 but he is priced up as an 18/1 outsider, probably because he was beaten 20L on his seasonal comeback at Royal Ascot.
To be fair to Ancient Rome, that was his first run of the season. He went well for a mile but his lack of a recent run told and he faded in the last couple of furlongs. This drop back to a mile is in his favour and the return to a kinder surface looks like a positive too.
Tom Marquand is 6/46 with 23 top 4s when riding for Fitri Hay and 12/67 when riding for Charlie Hills. He has ridden this lad twice, including when he was fourth in the French Guineas. If he can reproduce the form he showed when winning the Mint Million Stakes at Kentucky Downs, he won’t be far away. At odds of 18/1, Ancient Rome is the e/w selection.
2024 Ascot Saturday Tip: Ancient Rome e/w @ 18/1
2.35 York – City Walls Stakes (Listed)
It is hard to be enthusiastic about the chances of any of the outsiders in this Listed sprint. Starlust hacked up on his last run over C&D in a handicap off 105 and it looks to be between himself and Clarendon House on paper. Rogue Lightning has form at a much higher level than this and he could be a threat if producing his best. Emaraaty Ana is another one with the ability to feature if on a going day.
However, the bookies haven’t missed any of those and on a busy day, I am happy to sit this race out. No bet.
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.50 Newmarket – Mile Handicap (Class 2)
We’ve already backed Global Skies for this race at 25s and he is now 28s. I am happy to stick with him, hopefully the ground isn’t too quick for him.
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: Global Skies e/w @ 25/1 already advised
3.10 York – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Class 2)
We managed to find Pride Of America at 33/1 in this race last year. At York in big fields like this one it can often pay to be on one that’s drawn low and races close to the pace. The one that fits the bill for me is the Mick Appleby trained Penzance.
He will start from a lovely low draw in stall 2. By Wootton Bassett, he showed zilch on his first two runs on the grass but his form took off on the all weather last winter after he moved from Simon Crisford to Appleby. He started off with a mark of 74, he signed off for his winter campaign with a 1.25L second in the Easter Classic Middle Distance handicap at Newcastle off a mark of 98.
Penzance pitches up here off a mark of 100. He had a sighter over C&D after a 77 day break last month. He went well for a long way before blowing up a furlong from home and you’d imagine he’ll strip fitter for that outing. Hopefully, he’ll be able to see his race out better today and he is worth taking a chance on e/w at odds of 25/1.
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: Penzance e/w @ 25/1 (5 places) NAP
3.25 Newmarket – Superlative Stakes (Group 2)
After seeing a son of Kameko run a super race in the July Stakes over 6f earlier this week, I am going to take a chance on Wimbledon Hawkeye for James Owen in this Group 2. Sent off an unconsidered 28/1 shot on debut at Kempton in May, he belied those odds to beat Ingot by a neck. He wasn’t flashy, he didn’t look physically imposing but he showed a willingness to battle and he probably won with a bit more in hand than the winning margin suggests.
The form of that race looks decent. The runner up was thought highly enough of to run in the Coventry next time out and though he disappointed, the fifth home Cavallo has won twice since and is now rated 87.
This colt is from an excellent family, his dam being a half-sister to the top class James Garfield. Silvestre De Sousa rides, hopefully he can steer Wimbledon Hawkeye into the money at 25/1 and give Kameko his first bit of black type as a sire.
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: Wimbledon Hawkeye e/w @ 25/1
3.45 York – Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3)
I have no strong opinion on this race. If Wise Eagle rediscovered his mojo he could outrun his odds but he’s run poorly on both previous visits to York. Another no bet race.
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: No Bet
4.00 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup Handicap (Class 2)
I’ll probably regret not backing Ropey Guest here but his low draw and mark of 100 are off putting. Eight of the last eleven winners were drawn 10 or higher (seven drawn 14 or higher) and at a monster price, I am going to take a chance on Mustajaab from stall 20.
Trained by William Muir and Chris Grassick, this son of Tasleet was last sighted running into midfield in the Buckingham Palace at Ascot. In that race he was drawn in stall 14. Lewis Edmonds dropped him out and made the decision to race in the middle in a group of ten horses. Unfortunately, those drawn high dominated the race with the first ten home drawn 18 or higher.
However, in his own mini race, Mustajaab ran on really well and ended up finishing second in his group, staying on to get past Dark Thirty close to home. He’s drawn right beside that rival today and I am not sure Mustajaab should be three times the price of Dark Thirty. At odds of 50/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: Mustajaab e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)
4.35 Newmarket – July Cup Stakes (Group 1)
When I put Vadream up for this race earlier in the week there was torrential rain forecast for Friday night at Newmarket. Unfortunately, they are only due 4mm tonight so she won’t get her favourite ground. That being said, she did run a huge race at Ascot on good to firm and there should be a little bit of juice in the ground today so hopefully, she runs a good race.
I was tempted to put Swingalong up again. She ran a mighty race for us at Royal Ascot but my main angle for backing her that day was her excellent course form. She did run alright here on the Rowley course back in 2022 but I will wait until the Champion Sprint back at Ascot before backing her again.
Inisherin looks a monster and to be honest, I think he’ll be tough to beat. If it was soft or heavy Vandeek would have a chance of beating him but on this ground, the strong travelling Ryan horse will probably possess too many gears. I think he’ll win but hopefully, Vadream can sneak into the money.
