2024 Open Championship Golf Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Open Championship Betting Preview
It is hard to believe it is time for the last major of the season, the 2024 Open Championship. James Punt tipped up Scotty Scheffler to win The Masters earlier this season, find out who he is backing to lift the Claret Jug below.
2024 Open Championship
The 152nd Open Championship takes place at Royal Troon, on the Ayrshire coast in Scotland. This will be the tenth time the course has hosted the Open, the last time being in 2016 when it was won by Henrik Stenson.
The course has been tweaked since the last time the Open came here. Inevitably, it has been made longer by nearly 200 yards (7385 par 71). There have been nine new tees built, bunkers have been added in places, including two new ones on the par 5, 6th hole. That has been lengthened and at 623 yards, it is now the longest hole in Open history.
On the whole, the course is not overly long and the opening three holes are all sub 400 yard par fours. No more than a drive and flick with a wedge for these boys. Indeed, some will be driving the greens, if they avoid the bunkers.
Wind Direction Key
The first nine is the scoring nine, if the wind is behind. That is the prevailing wind here, but the second nine is then into the wind. Whichever direction the wind blows, you will have nine holes with the wind, nine holes against.
The back nine is tougher. From hole nine to hole thirteen, the player needs to hang on to his score. The par fours are long, 440 yards, 450 yards and the 498 yards 11th is the hardest hole on the course. Jack Nicklaus called it the hardest hole in Britain.
That is followed by 451 yard and 473 yard par fours. The 15th is a 500 yard par four so while it is not a long course by modern standards, those back nine holes, into the wind, are monsters.
Driver’s Course
Royal Troon is regarded as a bit of a driver’s course. Keeping it out of the rough, and the many pot bunkers, is key. A number of the holes feature blind tee shots, just to add a bit of spice to already difficult shots.
Like all true links courses, it is not about blasting the ball huge distances, but more an exercise in playing with accuracy, putting the ball in the right part of the fairways and staying out of trouble. The greens are slower than most, especially than the US courses, and many are hard to hold, especially downwind.
A good scrambling game is important because you will have to get up and down from around the greens on occasions.
Weather Watch
The weather plays a huge part in links golf. If the wind blows, it can be brutal, but when calm, scoring low can be easy. Stenson finished on -20 when he won here in 2016 when conditions were good. The forecast for this year’s event is not too bad but challenging enough.
Thursday will see a light breeze of around 10mph but gusting to 30mph around lunchtime. The wind does tend to be lighter in the early morning and early evening. There is a 70% chance of light showers throughout the day.
Friday sees plenty of sunshine, temperatures reaching 20 degrees, and again a light breeze around 10mph. Saturday will see the breeze drop to around 7 mph and there is a 60% chance of light showers in the morning and early afternoon. The final day’s play will be overcast, dry and with that same 10mph breeze.
It does not look like the weather is going to be a talking point and it doesn’t seem to favour one side of the draw. So fair conditions for all.
Open Winner Profiles
The profile of past winners of Open Championships is not surprising. You want a player who is in good recent form, having a recent top ten finish, preferably a win. Having had a high finish in at least one past Open is common, being a contender in previous Major Championships is a plus.
Older players have done well in past Opens, American players do a lot better than people expect. They don’t have courses like this in the States, but the players do enjoy the challenge of links golf. They have to play the contours, rather than just play the aerial game, but good players should have all the shots.
Outsiders are not uncommon. Since 2010 there have been four winners who were over 101.00, including last year’s winner, Brian Harman, who was 126.00.
There has been a recent trend towards the top ranked players winning The Open, the last eleven have been ranked inside the top 40 in the Official World Golf Rankings. That form line is blurred by the LIV golfers in the field these days, but we should be looking at top players, who are in good form, but do not be put off by dismissively big odds.
The 2024 Open Championship Long List
The number crunching/box ticking has come up with a top 10.
1 Scheffler
2 Morikawa
3 Schauffele
4 DeChambeau
5 McIlroy
6 Matsuyama
7 Hovland
T8 Finau
T8 Aberg
10 Harman
To thin that out I will reject the following. Harman as he is the defending champion and the title has only been defended twice this century (Woods and Harrington). Aberg as he is making his debut.
Morikawa won on his debut, but it is unusual. McIlroy is discounted due to mental fragility when close to the winning post.
The others all have claims, but my final four are…
Scotty Scheffler 1 point to win the 2024 Open Championship @ 6.50 generally available
Colin Morikawa 0.5 point e/w to win the 2024 Open Championship @ 17.00 with Fitzdares (e/w 1-8)
Bryson DeChambeau 0.5 point e/w to win the 2024 Open Championship @ 19.00 with Unibet, Livescorebet (e/w 1-7)
Tony Finau 0.5 point e/w to win the 2024 Open Championship @ 46.00 with Unibet (e/w 1-7)
Side Markets
Scott is an accomplished links player, playing in twenty one Opens and achieving five top 10 finishes. He warmed up with a second place in last weekend’s Scottish Open.
This is a field of just six players, with 2022 champion Cam Smith the favourite at 3.00. His stock has dropped after moving to the LIV tour and his form is not great. Jason Day is in indifferent form, Min Woo Lee has had a recent second place, but was 73rd in Scotland last weekend. Elvis Smilie and Jasper Stubbs are debutants.
1 point Adam Scott Top Australian finisher @ 3.80 with Betfred
Getting over the winning line in Majors may be beyond him, but high finishes are meat and drink to him. In his last eight Open Championships, he has had five top five finishes, and he just missed out last year with a 6th place. In his last seven events in 2024, he has two wins and three more top 5s. McIlroy was T4 when the Open last visited Royal Troon.
