2024 World Matchplay Thursday Preview

James Punt kept things ticking over with two more winners at 2.75 and 1.75 from his three tips last night. Ross Smith remains our final hope in terms of an outright win but there’s still plenty more matches (and hopefully winners) to come. James’ 2024 World Matchplay Thursday previews and tips are below.

Ross Smith vs. James Wade

Smudger has won his first two matches, but in different styles. His first round win over Josh Rock was all about killer finishing. Ten from fourteen on the doubles and a 99.15 average.

When beating Gerwyn Price 11-9 in the second round, it was all about his power scoring. The first six legs or so he was poor, he looked right off his game, but he then got going, and took off. No less than thirteen 180s meant he was putting immense pressure on Price, who folded under it in the end. If he can find a way to play a hybrid of those two matches, he can go a long way.

Smith has won nine of his last ten matches and is coming to the boil quite nicely. He had been winning matches without many fireworks, but his game is at his best when he hits a lot of treble 20s. If he is missing that target, he can be vulnerable. That can be said of most players, although not James Wade, but Smith is the biggest 180 hitter in the game, and he needs to play at that level.

Lethal Finisher

James Wade is a master of winning without having to shoot the lights out. His superpower is finishing and he remains one of the best in the world at it. He can look to be out of a leg, and then nick it from under your nose. That not only wins the leg, it also demoralises the opponent.

Wade has beaten Danny Noppert and Nathan Aspinall and rewarded us nicely in both. He has averaged 95.11 and 93.41 respectively, winning 10-5 and 11-8. Very James Wade. He has been helped by the fact that his opponents were not throwing too much back at him, Noppert 91.97 and the injured Aspinall 87.14. Wade has won eight of his last ten matches and is playing with a good degree of consistency.

Wade Leads H2H

Their H2H record is 6-2 to James Wade. However, Smith has won their last two. They have only played once in the last four years, a 6-3 win on the floor for Smith in 2023. It is hard to read too much into their H2H form. Ross Smith is the 1.53 favourite, Wade 2.63. That looks a bit short for Smith, and a little long for Wade.

James Wade has played no less than nine Matchplay quarter finals, winning six. Five were under 27.5 legs, four over. Ross Smith had never got beyond the first round here before this year.

Experience

Hopefully Smith can prevail, but he has only ever played one major quarter final in his career. That was in the 2022 European Championship, which he went on to win. Clearly, Wade has vastly more experience of these situations.

Over the last ten years 52.5 % of the quarter finals have had over 27.5 legs, and 47.5% under. The odds for this match are 2.00 for under, and 1.91 for over. There is no value there.

Smith is just 1.08 to hit the most 180s which is no value. James Wade +3.5 legs? 1.67. I am struggling to find any value here. No bet.

2024 World Matchplay Thursday Tip: No Bet

Luke Humphries vs. Dimitri van den Bergh

Cool Hand has been very impressive in his first two matches, averaging 108.76 and 102.34, beating Pietreczko and Bunting 10-4 and 11-7 respectively. He has won six of his last ten matches and won his only previous Matchplay quarter final 16-13 against Damon Heta last year.

Van den Bergh has beaten Schindler and Clayton, 10-6 and 11-5 respectively, averaging 98.91 and 96.85. The Belgian has played three Matchplay quarter finals and won all three. 16-12, 16-9 and 16-14.

He has won seven of his last ten matches and is in good form, winning PC12 last month. He also won this year’s UK Open, beating Luke Humphries 11-10 in the semi-final.

Their H2H record is 10-6 to Humphries. A lot of that form is very old, back to their development tour days. Since 2021 it is a more representative 5-2 to Humphries, although Dimitri has won two of their last three.

Humphries The Superior Player

Humphries is the better player in almost all respects. He will be keen to avenge that UK Open defeat, when Van den Bergh played a few mind games by bringing the pace of play to a grinding halt at times. Humphries says he is prepared for more of the same.

For all of Van den Bergh’s mind coaching, Humphries is mentally much stronger now and I suspect he will be very keen to put Dimitri to the sword tonight.

Humphries is the over whelming 1.20 favourite, Van den Bergh 4.75. Much like the first match, the odds on the favourite are prohibitively short. Any value has to lie with Van den Bergh.

He may not be as good as Humphries, but he has been there and got the T shirt when it comes to the Matchplay. He is a big stage player, in good form, and I have to give him more of a chance than the market suggests.

2024 World Matchplay Thursday Tip: 1 point Dimitri van den Bergh to win +4.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair

-JamesPunt