2024 World Matchplay Friday Preview

Dimitri van den Bergh went toe to toe with Luke Humphries for 20 legs but the Englishman pulled away late on, denying us our handicap bet. We go again this evening, James Punt’s 2024 World Matchplay Friday previews and tips are below.

Thursday Reflections

A disappointing night last night. Our final outright selection, Ross Smith, was beaten 10-16 by James Wade. He was simply outplayed by Wade, who did to Smith what Smith had done to Price; totally outscored him, put pressure on him with more maximums (and at the right time), backed up by good finishing. Smith occasionally got a look in but never got a big run going.

Our only match bet of the night went down as well. Dimitri van den Bergh had kept Humphries under pressure and it looked like we were on a winner on the handicap, but Van den Bergh eventually out-gamed himself. By trying to put Humphries off with a slow pace of play, he lost his own rhythm and he dried up at the crucial stage of the match and went down 10-16.

With two quarter finals left to go we have just two un-seeded players still in it. Wade and Gilding, the two lowest ranked players in the tournament. In the tournament outright preview, I highlighted the success of the top 10 seeds in recent years, and we have four left. Humphries (1.83), Van Gerwen (5.00), Michael Smith (12.00) and Rob Cross (7.00).

Michael van Gerwen vs. Andrew Gilding

MVG is the 1.15 favourite to win this, Gilding 6.00 to repeat his famous UK Open final win over Van Gerwen in 2023. He won that match 11-10 and it was a huge shock. Since then, both players games have slipped back.

Andrew Gilding was a nice winner for us in the last round, beating Ratajski 11-5. It was a fully deserved win, he was by far the better player and averaged 98.30. His seasonal average is only 91.55, so it was right up at the top of his A game. It helped that he has a very good record against Ratajski, and a recent win to underline it.

His H2H record against MVG is 2-7. In 2024 it is 1-1. They have played two longer format matches, the first was a 10-8 win for MVG in the 2015 UK Open semi-final, and the other the 11-10 UK Open final win. Gilding has played the two biggest games of his life against MVG, and won one, and took the other very close.

Inconsistent MVG

Michael van Gerwen has won seven of his last ten matches, but his game is very inconsistent and we have seen it in his two matches this week. He beat Luke Littler 10-6 and averaged 101.93, a good performance.

He then beat the out of form Joe Cullen 11-8 and averaged 95.49. It was an OK performance, but he won’t have been happy with it. It was the kind of performance we have come to expect these days, just a bit…ordinary. He wasn’t taking his chances, and he was handing Cullen chances he didn’t deserve. Cullen only averaged 91.88. A player in better form would have beaten MVG.

Hard To Predict

This is the problem when looking at Van Gerwen’s matches these days, you don’t quite know what you are going to get. However, you do know that he is much more beatable these days, and that he represents poor value when odds on.

If gilding can play like he did against Ratajski, he may win, if he plays like did against Peter Wright, he should at least give MVG a good game. Gilding has been around the block and he won’t be intimidated by MVG.

For Van Gerwen, forewarned is forearmed. He says he thinks Gilding is a very good, underrated player. This should be about how Van Gerwen performs. His A-game wins, his current B-game? He will then be in a match. I will have a go on the handicap.

2024 World Matchplay Friday Tip: 2 points Andrew Gilding to win +6.5 legs @ 1.67 with Betfred, Livescorebet, Boylesports

Michael Smith vs. Rob Cross

Michael Smith made hard work of Chris Dobey in the last round. He said he was annoyed by himself for not getting up for the match, that he was a bit too ‘pally’ with his mate Dobey.

Bully Boy won 11-9 but he should have won more easily. He only averaged 93.91 and he was poor on the doubles, missing 26. There is plenty of room for improvement. However, while Smith has won seven of his last ten matches, in his last six, he has only averaged over 94 once. Four saw sub 91 averages, so he hasn’t been at the top of his game.

He did play well against Gary Anderson, but against Anderson he gets exactly what he wants. A nice fast pace of play. That adds greatly to his game. Will he get that against Cross? No.

Deliberate Cross

Cross isn’t a slow player, more of a medium pacer, but he is deliberate. He is an aimer and he will take his time, especially on the doubles. Cross is in very good form, he has been for a long time.

Voltage is a very strong scorer, stronger than Smith over the last 12 months, and he has averaged over the ton in both his matches so far. He survived six match darts against Gian van Veen in the first round, then averaged 106 when beating Ryan Searle in the second. That was a very good performance.

Cross, like Smith has won seven of his last ten matches, but his scoring has been more consistent and heavier. He has hit five ton plus averages and only two under 95, one by a whisker. The only real blot on his recent form, was a 0-6 loss to….Michael Smith on the Euro Tour.

That was a real outlier. He missed ten doubles, too bad to be true. I must have had money on him, because Cross is my betting Nemesis. I back him to win, he plays poorly and loses, and vice versa.

Cross The Fav

The market has Cross as the 1.67 favourite, with Smith at 2.38. Their H2H record is 20-7 to Rob Cross. Smith had that recent 6-0 win in Europe, but in 2024, Cross is 2-1. They have met in this event once before, the 2019 final, which Cross won 18-13. In longer format matches it has been nip and tuck over the years, with Cross winning six to Smith’s four.

Cross deserves to be favourite, he is playing better and has a winning record against Smith. The only thing that looks like stopping him is if I back him. Sorry Rob.

2024 World Matchplay Friday Tip: 1 point Rob Cross to win @ 1.67 with Hills

I will take a bit of cover and back a close match. Five of their longer matches (best of 19 or more) have gone to within two legs and three needed a deciding leg.

2024 World Matchplay Friday Tip: 1 point over 27.5 legs @ 1.83 with Boylesports

-JamesPunt