2024 World Matchplay Semi-Finals Preview

Andrew Gilding landed our 2 point handicap bet by the skin of his teeth. However, Rob Cross failed to fire so that was our only winner. We now are down to the final four, James Punt’s 2024 World Matchplay Semi-Finals previews and tips are below.

Friday Reflections

Last night was bittersweet. Bitter as Rob Cross did for me yet again. He went down tamely to Michael Smith, and Smith hardly got out of second gear. The sweet was Andrew Gilding’s 132, bullseye finish to land our 2 point overs bet. You don’t get it much more dramatic than that.

On to the semi-finals tonight.

Luke Humphries vs. James Wade

The lowest ranked player to qualify, James Wade has made it all the way to the semi-finals and by doing so has moved himself up to a provisional 18th in the World Rankings. Should he win this, he would move up to 14th, and that is a big deal for any player.

Wade was interviewed after his quarter final win and said that he is top 10 player and that there are a lot of ordinary players above him in the rankings. Classy as ever. He isn’t a top 10 player because he hasn’t won enough ranking prizemoney. End of.

Wade has won eight of his last ten matches and he was very impressive when ending our hopes of Ross Smith making the final. He out 180’d the biggest 180 hitter in the game (13) and backed it up with his usual good finishing. Any more of that and Humphries will have his work cut out.

Humphries Cruising

Humphries has been the most impressive player in the tournament, hitting ton plus averages in all three matches so far. His tournament average is 104.10 (Wade 96.54) so he does look to have a scoring advantage, even if Wade repeats his form against Smith. Cool Hand has won seven of his last ten matches, but he has upped his game this week.

Their H2H record is 11-5 to Humphries and he has won ten of their last twelve. The last ‘big’ match they played was in last year’s Grand Slam semi-final and Humphries won that one 16-10. Something similar looks likely, but that match was low on quality, with Wade averaging 89.4.

They then met in the Players Championship finals, in the quarter finals, and Humphries won that 10-7. Before those two big matches, Wade did defeat Humphries 10-6 in the European Championship quarter finals. That was three major matches played in quick succession and the cumulative leg score ended up 32-27 to Humphries.

Wade Has Experience

Wade has played in eight Matchplay semi-finals and won six. Humphries has played one, and lost one. That was 15-17 loss to Jonny Clayton.

Humphries is the overwhelming favourite at 1.15, Wade 6.00.

Before we assume that Wade can’t win, it is worth remembering that Wade beat some bloke called Phil Taylor here in the 2015 semi-final, 17-14.

Wade is quite a stubborn character. This whole mini revival is all about getting himself back to where he believes he belongs, the top 10. This is just another opportunity to do just that. He will be positive and has nothing to lose. He is used to playing these big, long matches and is unlikely to run out of concentration as Gilding did last night.

2024 World Matchplay Semi-Finals Tip: 2 points James Wade to win + 6.5 legs @ 1.75 with Betfair

Michael Van Gerwen vs. Michael Smith

Van Gerwen beat Andrew Gilding 16-10 in the end, but it was nip and tuck up to the third break, when Gilding lead 8-7. The tank emptied for Goldfinger after that and all he could manage was to hit that legendry 132 checkout to land our 2 pointer. Well played Gilding!

Van Gerwen averaged 96.99 at the end, but like in his second round match, he looked below par. Gilding only averaged 89.98 but up to the final session, he was more than a match for MVG.

The Dutchman has averaged 95.49 and 96.99 in his last two matches. That is a good standard, but it is not tournament winning standard. He will have to up his game, especially on the outer ring. He was only 29.63% on the doubles last night and that is the fifth time in his last ten matches were he has been 30% or worse on the doubles. That invites pressure, can Smith apply it?

Mirror Image

Michael Smith has almost mirrored MVG’s tournament. Great in the first round, indifferent in the next two. Averages of 93.91 when beating Dobey 11-9, and 96.35 when beating Cross 16-7. He didn’t have to play well to win those two, it is more likely he will have to tonight.

His scoring, the Anderson game excepted, has not been great for his last seven matches and while, like MVG, he has won seven of his last ten matches, he is not in top form.

Their H2H record is 47-17 to Van Gerwen and he has won seven of their last eight matches. In 2024, it is 4-1. They were all short format matches, but all very close, three went to a decider and the other 4-6.

Michael van Gerwen is the 1.73 favourite, Smith 2.20. While MVG is not at his best, neither is Smith. I feel that MVG can still get into Smith’s head and he is just that bit better at winning ugly.

2024 World Matchplay Semi-Finals Tip: 1 point MVG to win @ 1.73 generally available

It may be a bit of a grind if neither finds their A-game. Half of Van Gerwen’s Matchplay semi-finals have been over 29.5 legs, as have one of Smith’s two semi-finals. It is not huge value, but I can see this being hard to win for both players.

2024 World Matchplay Semi-Finals Tip: 1 point over 29.5 legs @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes, Betfred, Hills

-JamesPunt