2024 World Matchplay Final Preview

MVG got us out of jail yesterday after a Humphries surge denied us our Wade handicap bet. We now have one last roll of the dice, James Punt’s 2024 World Matchplay Final preview and tips are below.

Luke Humphries vs. Michael van Gerwen

The final will be contested by the top two seeds, Luke Humphries and Michael van Gerwen. It pays to follow the top seeds in this event.

Luke Humphries starts as the 1.53 favourite, MVG 2.75

Humphries has been the best player in the tournament, hitting a ton plus average in all four of his matches so far. His tournament average is 103.23, compared to 98.21 for MVG. Not a great deal in it, but advantage Humphries.

Where Humphries has the advantage looks to be on the doubles. MVG was poor on the outer ring again last night with a checkout rate of 29.8%, his sixth 30% or under from his last ten matches. He is not comfortable on the doubles. Smith wasn’t able to take advantage of that last night, but you do not want to be giving an in-form Luke Humphries opportunities.

H2H Close

Their H2H record is 13-12 to MVG but more importantly, Humphries has won their last seven in a row, the last being the Premier League semi-final which he won 10-5. Humphries averaged 101 in that match, MVG 97. Both averaged 50% on the doubles and it is hard to think that MVG will be near that tonight.

They have only met in one major final before, last year’s Players Championship Finals final. Humphries won that 11-9, despite MVG averaging 103.

It is hard to argue against Humphries’ chances. He did lose the UK Open final to Van den Bergh and that does put me off backing him to win at odds of 1.53. I do think that he will win, and if MVG continues to squander chances on the doubles, Humphries could do him over.

In the last ten Matchplay finals, we have only had one close finish, the Anderson – Suljovic final which went to extra time and ended 21-19 to Anderson. The next closest was an 18-14 and seven of the last ten finals have seen a winning margin of eight or more legs. The tendency has been for pretty boring finals.

I am happy to back Humphries giving up a 2.5 leg handicap.

2024 World Matchplay Final Tip: 1 point Luke Humphries to win -2.5 legs @ 1.83 with Betfred, Ladbrokes, BET365

In keeping with boring finals, an under bet on the total legs looks sensible.

2024 World Matchplay Final Tip: 1 point under 31.5 legs @ 1.91 with Hills

-JamesPunt