2024 Ascot & York Saturday Preview & Tips – DS
2024 Ascot & York Saturday Preview
Castel Gandolfo finally ended our search for a winner last weekend. We probably should have had two but Torivega didn’t get the gaps at the right time. We’ll try our best to find another winner this weekend, check out Dave’s 2024 Ascot & York Saturday preview and tips below.
1.50 Ascot – Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3)
Simmering remains a maiden after two starts but she has been made the 13/8 fav for this Group 3. She chased home Fairy Godmother in the Albany on fast ground over this C&D last time out and the ground should be pretty similar for her today. However, only one of the six horses that have run since the Albany have managed to win so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if she gets turned over.
On a form line through Beronia, Alice Fairfax looks overpriced compared to the second favourite Mandurah. Simon and Ed Crisford’s daughter of Kingman won on her debut at Newmarket (6f gd/fm). She had Beronia 2.25L back in third in that contest and when Alice Fairfax won on her second start at Thirsk, she had the same horse 1.5L back in third.
If that form is taken literally, there shouldn’t be a whole lot between Mandurah and Alice Fairfax yet the Ryan filly is almost 5x the price of that rival. William Buick rides (3/23 with 12 top 4s for this owner) and Kevin Ryan has been in decent form. At odds of 20/1, Alice Fairfax is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
2024 Ascot & York Saturday Tip: Alice Fairfax e/w @ 20/1
2.05 York – Jump Jockeys Nunthorpe Handicap (Class 4)
I used to relish these big field sprints at York but they’ve proved to be tricky puzzles in recent times. In the hope that the switch back to cheekpieces from the visor worn last time out sparks a revival, I am going to take a chance on the 8yo Ghathanfar.
Trained by Tracy Waggott, this horse has been knocking on the door this season. Since returning from his winter break, he has run six times and in four of those outings he was beaten less than 1.5L. His first three runs of the campaign came over 6f and he returned form figures of 322. He then ran poorly at York, again over 6f, but he soon bounced back.
On his penultimate start at Pontefract, Ghathanfar was beat 0.75l off 70. Then last time out, four days ago, he ran down the field in a visor at Musselburgh. As I mentioned earlier that has been discarded and the cheekpieces are back on. His career form figures at York on good to firm ground read 1345, hopefully he can run into the money again today at odds of 16/1.
2024 Ascot & York Saturday Tip: Ghathanfar e/w @ 16/1 (5 places)
2.25 Ascot – Valiant Stakes (Group 3)
A couple of these locked horns in the Duke Of Cambridge at the Royal Meeting in June. Running Lion won it easily and Doom, a 9/1 shot here, was 4L behind in third. Back in sixth, just 0.75L behind the Haggas horse, was Julia Augusta, a 50/1 shot here.
David O’Meara’s charge was a touch keen that day and she lost a few places inside the final furlong. She then dropped back to Listed company over 7f on the all weather at Chelmsford on her next start and finished last of eight and that run is probably why she has been chalked up at such a massive price for this.
Unbeaten
The fav for this G3 is Devoted Queen and she brings an unbeaten record into the race. She is 3/3 so far, including an impressive 2L Listed win at York last time out. On a line through the runner up Spiritual she should beat Soprano and the other 3yo in here, Friendly Soul, has questions to answer after bombing out at York last time out.
Julia Augusta bombed out too on her last start but Friendly Soul is 5/1 and Julia is 50s. If she can bounce back to the same level of form she showed at the Royal Meeting, or even her G3 run at Epsom, she is capable of nicking some black type here. At odds of 50/1, a modest e/w interest is advised.
2024 Ascot & York Saturday Tip: Julia Augusta e/w @ 50/1
2.40 York – Dash Handicap (Class 2)
Last year, Rage Of Bamby returned from a 118 day mid-season break to run a cracker over 5f here. Running off a mark of 100, she went down by a neck to Designer. She then ran a nice race in a Listed heat over today’s trip, beat just over 3L behind Commanche Falls.
Eve Johnson Houghton’s charge has charted a similar course this season. The 4yo daughter of Saxon Warrior ran down the field on her comeback run at Bath over 5f back in April. She has been left off since and now returns from a 99 day break.
This race is admittedly a furlong further than the one she finished second in last year but she has won over 6f (and 7f) in the past so the trip doesn’t really concern me. What is more important to this filly is good to firm ground and she should get those conditions today. She has run well on both previous visits to York, hopefully she can make it third time lucky this afternoon at odds of 20/1.
2024 Ascot & York Saturday Tip: Rage Of Bamby e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
3.00 Ascot – International Stakes Handicap (Heritage)
A few look pretty tempting in this valuable handicap. The old boy Bless him likes it here and went close on his last run over C&D in May. His three runs since haven’t been up to much though and our old pal Ropey Guest has a similar profile. No doubt those two will finish 1-2 now.
The one I am going to back at odds of 40/1 is Riot. Trained by David O’Meara, Hollie Doyle takes the ride on this very consistent son of Kingman. This 7yo was last sighted running a nice race on good to soft ground at York earlier this month. However, that sort of ground isn’t ideal for him and he will be much more at home on the good to firm conditions at Ascot.
His last start on good to firm resulted in a win at Donny off 84 last month. In fact, both his runs this season on good or quicker have resulted in victory. His career form figures over 7f on good to firm read 235531 and the first of those thirds came in the Buckingham Palace Stakes off 93 back in 2021, his only previous run at Ascot. He’s in off 87 today and Hollie Doyle has finished in the first four in 50% of her rides for O’Meara (2 wins/8 top 4s from 20 rides). At odds of 40/1, Riot is the e/w pick.
2024 Ascot & York Saturday Tip: Riot e/w @ 40/1 (6 places) NB
3.15 York – York Stakes (Group 2)
A four runner race and all of them are single figure odds. No bet.
2024 Ascot & York Saturday Tip: No bet
3.40 Ascot – King George VI and QE Stakes (Group 1)
We have already backed Goliath e/w at 33/1 for this contest and I am happy to stick with him. You can read my reasoning by clicking here. Hopefully Christophe Soumillon can steer him into the money.
