NCAA College Football Season Betting Preview – JK

by Dave Stevos | Aug 15, 2024

NCAA College Football season Betting Preview

Jan Keys had a successful Euro 2024 campaign and he is back in action this week. Jan will be focusing on gridiron in the coming months. He’ll be covering the NFL and first of all, we have his NCAA College Football season betting preview. Who does Jan think will be crowned the National Champions in the final in Georgia in January? Find out what he thinks about the prospects of every team below.

NCAA College Football Season Format

First of all, I will try to simplify what is a complex and confusing League program. At the start there are 133 College Teams each playing 12 matches against teams from their own division and other divisions. The best 12 Teams qualify through to a seeded Knockout Stage. Seeds 1-4 get a Bye in The First Round.

How The Playoffs Work

12 teams are seeded at the end of the regular season with the top four seeds heading straight into the quarter-finals.

1st ROUND MATCHES

5th SEED V 12th SEED

6th SEED V 11th SEED

7th SEED V 10th SEED

8th SEED V 9th SEED

QUARTER FINALS

1st SEED V 5/12 SEED

4th SEED V 6/11 SEED

2nd SEED V 7/10 SEED

3rd SEED V 8/9 SEED

SEMI FINALS

1/5/12 V 4/6/11

2/7/10 V 3/8/9

The Teams (in betting order)

GEORGIA BULLDOGS: 3/1 – 2024 Ranking 4: Last season: 13-1.

Not much value in the odds for the Bulldogs as they have some tricky road matches, week 4 @ (5) Alabama, week 7 @ (3) Texas and week 9 @ Ole Miss. Although I would expect them to beat Ole Miss, the other 2 matches are genuine 50-50 chances. This price is not for me.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES: 4/1 – 2024 Ranking 10: Last season 11-2.

They won their first 11 matches last season before losing to (3) Michigan 45-23 and then a close loss to (1) Georgia 42-41. Last season’s fixture list wasn’t too hard, opening with a win against (5) Notre Dame.

This coming season’s fixtures see them with 3 tough matches in week 6 @ (6)Oregon, week 8 @ (13) Penn State and week 12 home to (1) Michigan. I see them winning at least 10 matches but the 4/1 doesn’t excite me.

OREGON DUCKS: 8/1 – Ranking 6: Last season 12-2.

Another team that has 3 hard matches out of 12, although 2 of these are at home. Their first big match is week 6 at home to (10) Ohio State (at the moment I would be Oregon -7 for that match).

Their second tough match is week 9 at (1) Michigan. Obviously, this will be tough but winnable then they finish the regular season at home to (2) Washington who I expect them to beat. No reason why Oregon can’t go 11-1 into the playoffs and be a realistic contender for the Championship match.

TEXAS LONGHORNS: 8/1 – Ranking 3: Last season 12-2

week 2 they travel to (1) Michigan which will be a tough match up for the Longhorns. In week 6 they play Oklahoma at a neutral venue (Texas should be around 5 point favorites.) Then, in week 7 they travel to (4) Georgia and they finish off with a match up at Texas A&M which wouldn’t be a pushover. Texas don’t look as appealing as Oregon at 8/1 for me.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE: 12/1 – Ranking 5: Last season 12-2

A good season last year with some tough matches and they held their heads high. They lost in week 2 and went down to a Ranking of 12, then steadily improved.

From what I can see they have five tricky ties starting in week 4 @ (1) Georgia (they will be a Touchdown underdogs) so we will chalk that down as a probable loss. Their four other tricky matches are @ (17) Tennessee in week 7 (should be small favs), week 8 at home to (8) Missouri, week 9 @ (12) LSU and week 11 @ (15) Oklahoma. There’s no Value in the 12/1 with that season schedule.

LSU FIGHTING TIGERS: 14/1 – Ranking 12: Last season 10-3

Nothing much to write home about Last season, their schedule wasn’t too tough and of their 4 reasonably tough matches, they lost 3. This season’s schedule looks fairly good if the Fighting Tigers can find some momentum.

If they play to their potential then they should make the playoffs, my issue is that come the playoffs the fixtures get harder and I believe they are a notch below the top teams. No value here.

OLE MISS REBELS: 14/1 – Ranking 9: Last season 11-2

This is simple, they’re just not on the same level as the Top 6 teams. My Ratings have them 8 point underdogs at home to Georgia in week 10. They have a reasonable schedule but little chance come the playoffs, if they make them. 14/1 is a terrible price.

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES: 22/1 – Ranking 3: Last season 13-1

Last season was pretty impressive. With a third placed ranking and a 13-1 record, you would think Florida State are the real deal. My personal ratings have them the 14th best team so again, it is hard to consider them real contenders.

Their one loss last season came in The Orange Bowl where they suffered a humiliating 63-3 Defeat at the hands of Georgia. I wouldn’t entertain backing Florida State at 22/1, but they still hold playoff chances.

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS: 22/1 – Ranking 13: Last season 10-3

Last season they just came up short against two good sides in (3) Ohio State and (2) Michigan but they stayed in those games and weren’t beaten by much. Losing the “Peach Bowl” against Ole Miss was a surprise to me but all in all, they’re a good side.

They have a good schedule where they play two ranking sides both at home and both close to call matches, in week 8 (10) Ohio State and in week 9 (2) Washington. They only have to improve a tad on last season and we can count them in as a worthy contender. 22/1 is a value price and they have a chance.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES: 25/1 – Ranking 1: Last season 15-0

A perfect record last season of 15 wins and no losses. Top ranked, top of my ratings and comfortable winners of The National Championship so 25/1 looks a massive price, one would presume.

This season’s schedule The Wolverines face 4 ranked teams, in week 2 at home to (3) Texas and Oregon week 9 at home. The 2 away games are at (2) Washington in week 6 and (10) Ohio State to finish the Regular season. I wouldn’t put anyone off taking 25/1 a team that has only lost once in two seasons but this time their schedule is far tougher.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH: 25/1 – Ranking 18: Last season 10-3

The Fighting Irish have very little problem blowing teams away when they’re in form, it’s just that sometimes their form dips and they don’t always perform. Losses against (25) Louisville and Clemson would’ve hurt what was a pretty good season last year.

They are rated high, 4th on my ratings, they just need some consistency. This season’s fixtures look very good, playing just 2 ranking teams and both at home, in week 5 vs (19) Louisville and week 9 vs (6) Florida State. As crazy as it may sound, this could be a 12-0 season with a high playoff seeding beckoning. Notre Dame look a good bet at 25/1 and will be one of my selections.

TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS: 30/1 – Ranking 17: Last season 9-4

Some tough fixtures last season but the 4 matches they lost were all by decent sized margins. I also have them on a low rating so can’t see them progressing too far. This season’s fixtures haven’t been kind with matches against (5) Alabama and at (4) Georgia. No value at 30/1.

CLEMSON TIGERS: 35/1 – Ranking 20: Last season 9-4

Having spent most the season outside the Top 25 and having Georgia as their opening match for which they are 14 points underdogs, there is no value in this team at 35/1. Moving quickly on.

TEXAS A&M: 40/1 – Ranking (Not Rated): Last season 7-6

Sorry, another team that is not good enough and they should be double the price.

USC TROJANS: 40/1 – Ranking (Not Rated): Last season 8-5

Good start to last season. They won their first 6 matches but then the wheels really came off with them losing 5 of their last 7 matches. Their schedule is also very tough and I can see them losing at least another 5 games this coming season. 40/1? No thanks.

OKLAHOMA SOONERS: 40/1 – Ranking 15: Last season 10-3

The Oklahoma Sooners had a good start to last season and after week 6, they were rated 5th and stayed in the Top 6 for two more weeks. Their schedule was reasonably soft and they lost to 2 unranked teams.

They could have a good start to the season again but they finish against 3 ranked teams. May struggle to make the playoffs. Don’t see much value at 40/1.

MISSOURI TIGERS: 40/1 – Ranking 8: Last season 11-2

The Missouri Tigers were unranked at the start of last season and their improvement was slow in the first half of their campaign but momentum came in the second half of the season and they went on to win the Cotton Bowl against Ohio State.

Probably reached their peak with an 8th placed ranking but they have a reasonable schedule and could reach the final 12. 40/1 is about the right price.

WASHINGTON HUSKIES: 50/1 – Ranking 2: Last season 14-1

They went into last season with a 10th placed ranking and had a great season. It was an amazing campaign for the Huskies, including beating Oregon twice by just 3 points. Also, their impressive win in the Sugar Bowl against Texas was a big achievement.

Their only loss was the National Championship match against Michigan. My ratings have 8 teams in front of them, so I’m not expecting such a brilliant season ahead. This seasons schedule is slightly harder and I’m sure they will lose a couple of matches.

MIAMI (FL) HURRICANES: 50/1 – Ranking (Not Rated): Last season 7-6

I am not sure why Miami are only 50/1, they must have some young superstars waiting in the wings. They do lose regularly and usually not by many points, and a few people are rating them to make the final 12.

Looking at their schedule, I can only see them having an 8-5 season. They need to improve by at least 2 touchdowns to make the championship finals. 50/1 is no value in my book.

NCAA College Football Season Betting Preview – JK