2024 Dutch GP Qualifying Update & Tips – JP
2024 Dutch GP Qualifying Update & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Dutch GP Qualifying update. He has already posted his outright preview, you can check that out here
2024 Dutch GP Qualifying Preview
The start of the Dutch GP weekend has been very messy. FP1 was wet with just a little dry running in the last ten minutes. FP2 was the only proper session, with FP3, the qualifying set up session, seeing just a handful of laps run before Sargeant wrote his Williams off, causing a red flag. The restart came with just enough time for most drivers to do one timed lap, on a wet track. It was completely meaningless.
FP2 is the only decent guide we have to go on. That saw George Russell fastest, just 0.061 ahead of McLaren’s Oscar Piastri. The track was evolving lap by lap and Norris and Verstappen had set their fast lap a few minutes before. It is fair to say that they would have been faster, had they run at the same time. It looked very close at the top.
McLaren Upgrade
McLaren have brought a substantial upgrade, their biggest since Miami, and while they have not had the kind of conditions they would have wanted for data gathering, they hit the ground running and it all looks in order. Mercedes’ good recent form looks intact. Russell was the happier of the two drivers, but Hamilton was up in third place.
Verstappen says that the Red Bull was just a little too slow and we did not get to see if they had been able to find a bit more speed overnight, but they usually do. He is still very much in the mix.
Ferrari have no upgrades and they have had a poor weekend so far. Sainz missed most of FP2 with a broken gearbox. He only did 23 laps in total on Friday and just 6 today. They look to be about half a second off the pace.
Battle For Pole
It is no great surprise to see that the battle for pole looks to be between the two Mercedes, the two McLarens and Verstappen. Perez has been as dreadful as he was before the break and it was clear by Christian Horner’s manner yesterday, that he knows they have made a terrible mistake by not ditching him during the break. It will cost them the Constructors’ Championship. Horner was ultra defensive, rather than just holding up his hands and saying that the Mexican is indeed a basket case.
Recent qualifying sessions have shown Verstappen is still the best qualifier, closely followed by Norris, but we have seen Russell on pole twice in the last six qualifying sessions, as were Norris and Verstappen. They look to be your likely candidates this afternoon.
Foul Weather
The weather has been absolutely foul, very much in keeping with the summer that the British Isles and Northwestern Europe has endured in 2024. The forecast for qualifying is partly sunny for Q1 and Q2, clouding over for Q3, but remaining dry. I would not bet the farm on that being the case as rain is around, but not expected until shortly after the qualifying session has ended, if it finishes on time.
We saw earlier, that with this very compact track, there is no real run off room around a lot of the circuit. Recovering cars is not easy and if we get more accidents, we could overrun into the oncoming band of rain crossing the North Sea.
Lando Norris is the 2.75 favourite to be the fastest qualifier, Max Verstappen 3.00 and George Russell 8.00.
The odds make my mind up. Norris and Verstappen look accurately priced, but why is Russell so much bigger? He has not shown the same kind of consistency as Norris or Verstappen, but he has still had two poles in the last six, and he was fastest in FP2, the only meaningful session so far. He is also a pretty handy one lap merchant.
It is not a session to get heavily involved in on the back of an unsatisfactory build up, but the odds on Russell look good enough value for a modest bet.
2024 Dutch GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point George Russell to be the fastest qualifier @ 8.00 generally available
So long as the weather stays dry, we should see a close contest and the winning margin could well be very small. I covered it in the preview and I am just about happy enough to have a go with a winning margin of under 0.1 seconds, as it was in FP2.
