2024 Dutch GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Dutch GP Raceday Update & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Dutch GP Raceday update. Unfortunately, we were out of luck in qualifying but hopefully we can bounce back this afternoon.
2024 Dutch GP Raceday Preview
After two great races, we are heading for disaster this weekend. I clearly haven’t got this Zandvoort circuit yet. The weather hasn’t helped either. I am not going to be chasing losses today and will just have to say that it is just one of those races were it all goes wrong. It happens.
Our two ‘Mr. Consistency’ picks, Hamilton and Sainz, will be starting from fourteenth and tenth respectively. Sainz has just had a bad weekend car wise, while Hamilton has decided he isn’t playing this weekend. The Merecedes is capable of a podium, but Hamilton had no pace yesterday and topped that off with a three place penalty for blocking Perez in qualifying.
Today’s weather is set to be dry, but a few degrees cooler, well about eight degrees cooler, but remaining breezy. Pirelli say that a one stop race is the quickest, but on this kind of track, with so few runoff areas, the chance of a safety car is high and strategies will have to be fluid.
The grid has been shaken up with Hamilton getting his penalty and Williams’ Alex Albon was disqualified from qualifying for having a floor that was bigger than the regulations allow for. That is enormously embarrassing for Williams. To introduce their first big upgrade of the season and it getting banned because they didn’t measure it properly is amateur hour. I’m sure Carlos Sainz will not be impressed.
2024 Dutch GP Raceday Team-by-Team Outlook
Red Bull
With their two cars starting from second and fifth, it hasn’t been a bad weekend for Red Bull. The fact that Verstappen was so far off Norris’ time will have been a shock, but at least Perez made it into Q3. Verstappen can only hope to beat Norris if the Englishman makes another horror start or has a problem in the race.
McLaren
Not quite a front row lock out, but first and third on the grid is good going. The team chose to introduce a big upgrade package this weekend and, like all of the upgrades in recent years, it has worked as planned. To be over 0.3 seconds clear of Verstappen on a very short lap is impressive.
Piastri didn’t have a great final run yesterday and qualifying remains a weakness for him. I imagine his job is to try and beat Verstappen and given he now has a car advantage, he should. This is Norris’ race to lose. He will be feeling it on the grid as his poor starts have really let him down this season.
Mercedes
Two different stories for the two drivers. Russell really struggled in Q1 but was quick in Q2 before dropping off in Q3 again. Clearly, the car has a very small sweet spot on this track. The Mercedes usually has good race pace and Russell is in the mix for a podium. Hamilton should be able to make his way into the points, but overtaking here is not easy.
Ferrari
Sainz’ lack of running in free practice meant he went into qualifying without having put down a single lap on the soft tyre, and very little on slicks. It has just been one of those weekends for him. Leclerc ended up sixth which is as good as the car would allow.
They have no upgrades this weekend and they are falling further behind McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes. I thought the track would be OK for Ferrari, but in fact it is the opposite. They are just hoping that Leclerc can hold onto sixth place and for Sainz to make up a couple of places.
Aston Martin
Surprisingly good. They have locked out the fourth row, but obviously they have been flattered by the struggles of Sainz and Hamilton. Their long run pace on Friday was poor, but that was Friday and they may have improved things since then. That said, their race pace is generally nothing special.
Alpine
Completely unpredictable as usual. Gasly starts from ninth place, Ocon sixteenth. Gasly can take the credit. He does go well here, with a fourth and a third to his credit. He has only reached Q3 twice before this season and manged to finish in the points in both (Monaco and Spain).
Visa RB
Just too slow this weekend. Their race pace isn’t great and they have faster cars around them.
Haas
Have looked quick at times and Magnussen looked good for Q3. He was never out of the top nine in free practice, but Hulkenberg ended up outqualifying him, despite his practice sessions being ruined by brake problems.
Magnussen just has not cut it in qualifying this season, but it will be interesting to see how far up the order he can get. The car’s race pace is reasonable, but the Dane is likely to come up just short of the points again. Hulkenberg is the better driver and with a bit of luck and/or attrition, he could pick up a point.
Sauber
A ninth row lockout is nosebleed time for the worst team on the grid. They will be battling it out for last place.
Williams
A serious case of egg on face. Sargeant had his customary Zandvoort crash in FP3. The team couldn’t stick it all back together in time for qualifying. It was probably just as well, as it turns out that their new upgraded floor was the wrong size and Albon was disqualified from his excellent eighth place.
It has been a terrible end to what should have been a very good weekend. This was their big upgrade and it worked. Then Sargeant smashes his car into a few thousand pieces and Albon is disqualified for an oversized floor. Rumours abound that this crash was the final straw for Sargeant. Mick Schumacher to be in the car next weekend? Whoever passed the new floor as rules compliant should also be getting a P45.
What floor they will run the car on today is unknown. They may well just shave a bit off and run the new one, or they may have to run the old floor which would screw up the upgrade package. They are optimistic that Albon can make good progress and the car was fifth fastest on the long runs. Starting from the back row is a big handicap on this track, however.
2024 Dutch GP Raceday Summary
This looks like a great opportunity for Norris to pick up his second race win. He has his teammate around to bother Verstappen and their car does look to be the class of the field.
Norris is the 1.85 favourite to be the fourth pole sitter to win at the new Zandvoort. The pole sitter has failed to win any of the last six races this season, but this is a track where being on pole should matter. Norris has had three previous pole positions but is yet to convert one into a win.
His poor starts are a concern, and Verstappen will know that the run into the first corner is his big chance to win the race. It would still be hard for Verstappen to win in a slower car, but at least he would have a chance and we know that McLaren are far from flawless in terms of race execution. For that reason I will not back Norris, despite the odds looking reasonable.
Piastri is a 7.50 shout which makes some e/w appeal, but I am happy to pass on this market, given how poorly it has gone so far.
Side Markets
In the side markets, I quite like the look of Lance Stroll’s chances of a top 10 finish. Of the five times he has made it into Q3, he has converted that into points four times this season. Their race pace on Friday was poor, but track position is likely to be more important at this venue.
His three finishes here have been 12th, 10th and 11th. The remarkable thing is that he has finished each race here in the same place as he started. However, odds of just 1.57 hardly get the pulse racing.
I was considering a bet on him to beat Alonso, which he has done in three of the last four races. However, Alonso is something of a track specialist, having finished 6/6/2 in the last three years. It is just too hard to find a side market to back Stroll in. He is a 2.75 shot to beat Carlos Sainz with Unibet, but he has only done that once in 2024 and that was when Sainz had a DNF.
Alonso Worth A Look
I will have a dabble with his teammate. Alonso does go well here and was sixth in FP2 and seventh in qualifying, the two relevant sessions. He will be hoping to hold his position, despite saying that there are quicker cars behind him.
The only obvious ones are Sainz and Hamilton. Hamilton starts way back in fourteenth place and he has only started outside the top 10 twice this season. In Australia he had a DNF and in China a ninth place from 18th on the grid. This is a hard track on which to overtake and Hamilton may find it harder work to make up a lot of places.
Sainz has just been up against it all weekend. The Ferrari is not flying and Leclerc was only 0.05 faster than Alonso in the better of the two Ferraris. Alonso looks a sporting price to finish ahead of Hamilton, Sainz and Stroll.
2024 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to win Group 2 @ 5.00 with Ladbrokes
With the upgraded McLaren looking very strong, I fancy that the orange cars could get a second 1-2 of the season. If Piastri was just that bit cleaner on his final qualifying lap, he would be starting second, so the pace is there.
The McLaren is also that bit better in terms of tyre degradation, should that become an issue. I was considering the 2.60 for Piastri to beat Verstappen, but the odds on McLaren to finish 1-2 are better for what may be the same thing.
2024 Dutch GP Raceday Tip: 1 point McLaren 1st and 2nd @ 3.75 with Unibet
The final bet is on Gasly to finish in the points. He goes very well here and while it may be too much to keep Sainz and Hamilton behind him, there may be some attrition to help him out. His worst finish here is 11th, and hopefully he can better than that by one place today.
