2024 Italian GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2024 Italian GP Raceday Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Italian GP Raceday update. We just missed the place money in qualifying yesterday but James has found a few more interesting angles for this afternoon. His analysis and free tips are below.
2024 Italian GP Raceday Preview
It was indeed a close qualifying session which ended with an all McLaren front row. Sadly our selection, Charles Leclerc, could only manage fourth, 0.134 off the pole time.
In terms of Championship interest, Red Bulls’ Verstappen and Perez could only manage seventh and eighth respectively. Red Bull were just about fastest in the long runs on Friday, but there was really nothing between Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren, and Mercedes were just a tenth off those.
I am not a huge believer of the long run times on Friday as track position is more important and the cars set up will have changed since then.
Confusion
The resurfaced track has caused a bit of confusion. The tarmac is smooth and darker but it is producing a lot of tyre graining, rather than out and out degradation. Graining varies from car to car, and it is something that some drivers cope with better than others. Patience will be required early on, not over driving.
The new track surface is still evolving. We have F3, F2 and F1 racing this weekend. There has been no rain so the rubber going down is staying down and maturing the surface. We cannot be sure exactly how it is going to behave and it could be that the graining issues turn out to be less of an issue than expected. Degradation is said to be on the high side, but again, that may turn out to be lower than expected after the F3 and F2 feature races this morning.
Usually A One Stop Race
Traditionally this is a one stop race, the long pit lane means more time spent making a stop, so managing the race on one stop makes sense. Some are saying that it is marginal, but the teams will try and manage things to stick to one stop.
Drivers will have to manage the tyres and being at the front makes that a lot easier. Clean air is worth much gold. You do not get the advantage of a tow, which is important here, but overall I guess that having clean air and lower temperatures is more valuable.
If degradation is a problem, that will play into the hands of McLaren. Their car has the characteristic of being able to push hard, late in the stints, markedly so. That is when then can pounce. Of course, they start from the front, so they do not have to pounce. Or will they?
McLaren
There is no doubting that the McLaren is slow off the line, or at least slow in the second phase of the launch. There is a decent run into the first chicane and I would be amazed if we do not see them under attack from Russell and Leclerc. It has the potential for a crash or two.
Hopefully, the McLaren pair are briefed to just stay out of trouble, even if that means giving up the lead. They have the fastest race car. The Friday long run times will say that there is nothing in it, but we have seen, in real racing, that the McLaren manages its tyres better than the rest. If they drop to say third and fourth, I’d still expect one to finish first.
It was telling that both McLaren drivers were not happy with their final laps in Q3. They thought they should have done better, but they still locked out the front row, suggesting that they have a bit more in hand.
Mercedes
Russell was very happy with is second row slot. His weekend got off to a bad start when Antonelli crashed Russell’s car in FP1, leading to Russell missing out on some running in FP2. His run plan was compromised but he has recovered the situation nicely.
Hamilton, on the other hand, was less than happy. He messed up Q3, his fault, and he was hoping to be on the front row. We saw in Spa that Russell was quite capable of managing his tyres well, getting a one stopper home in first place while the rest made two.
The Mercedes is a good race car, not as good as the McLaren, but Russell has set himself up for a podium. His starts have been good and seeing him make up a place or two is very possible, holding it, more challenging.
Both drivers were complaining of excessive heat under their seats yesterday. Something to do with exhaust gases. They will need to have fixed that overnight otherwise it is going to be a very uncomfortable race for both.
Ferrari
It was a decent effort form Ferrari to get fourth and fifth, but they just couldn’t master the first sector, which was a bit of a surprise. I expected the Ferrari to be one of the better cars through the chicanes.
Their race pace is usually better than their qualifying pace and both drivers believe they can make the podium. They have set the car up with the race in mind and as we saw last week, Leclerc was able to keep a McLaren behind him.
Red Bull
You can sense the fear at Red Bull. They are lost. They do not know why their upgrades are making the car slower. The obvious solution is just to bin the new parts and go back to what they had at the start of the season. That way, Verstappen should be able to defend his Championship lead, but the Constructors Championship looks lost now, maybe even second place.
They can’t do anything with the car for this race now, and this will be damage limitation. Verstappen managed to finish second, a distant second last week, but the car is suffering with understeer this weekend, and that is Kryptonite to his driving style.
Lack of Downforce
Perez starts just one place behind Verstappen, which is better news for him I suppose. The team changed the cars’ set up on Friday night but they still could not find a solution. Perez is struggling with the lack of downforce. The car has shown good pace, at times, but they don’t understand why it is dropping in and out of the sweet spot.
I imagine Verstappen can improve his position, but it is not the case that the six cars in front are slower this weekend. Verstappen won from seventh place here in 2022 after taking a grid penalty, but this time, he doesn’t have the fastest car. Perez will likely get stuck around where he starts.
Williams
Albon starts ninth in the upgraded Williams. They have measured the floor correctly this weekend, so he can fight for some points. He has been in that 8th-9th place zone all weekend and that is where he should finish. Colapinto dropped his rear wheels into the gravel in Q1 and only starts eighteenth. Still, no worse than Sargeant and he didn’t crash.
Haas
Our bet for a points finish for Hulkenberg is looking good. He qualified tenth so the first half of the job is done. He now needs a clean start and to look after the tyres and execute a one stopper. He doesn’t have any faster cars behind him, and it is in his hands. The car generally shows good race pace and hopefully he can hang on.
Aston Martin
Alonso said that eleventh place was the absolute maximum he could have achieved. Their race pace isn’t great so his hopes of any points may rely on others having problems. Stroll went out in Q1. There is not much optimism in the team about their prospects.
VISA RB
The team rushed an upgrade to put on Tsunoda’s car and it has resulted in Ricciardo being faster in every session. It is not the first time their upgrades have had the opposite effect of what was wanted.
Alpine
Their car was better on Saturday than on Friday, but that is not saying much. Not much was expected from them this weekend, and they have read the script. They are optimistic that their race pace on the hard tyres will be better, and they may move up a couple of places.
Sauber
Ran on fumes on Friday for whatever reason, but it was back to the bottom yesterday. Another pointless Sunday is on the cards.
Summary
Today’s word is ‘uncertainty’. The new track surface is something of an unknown quantity, that and the hard tyres. If a driver is slow, it will be about graining. Degradation is also something of an unknown on the new surface.
I suspect it will not be as big an issue as some are making out. The Pirelli tyres usually perform better than expected. The race on the partially resurfaced surface there saw low degradation, lower than expected, and Russell took a gamble on an unlikely one stopper to cross the line in first place.
Slow Starter
What is not uncertain is that the McLaren is very quick, the class of the field and very kind to its tyres. It is also a snail off the line. If they bog down in the second launch phase, Russell and Leclerc will be all over them.
I still don’t think losing the lead is the end of the world for them, the faster car should still win out, but four cars trying to race into the first chicane does increase the chance of making contact, and that can be race ending. That is McLaren’s biggest threat.
If they do get away in the lead, it could be a quiet race, at the front at least. I suspect that team orders will be in operation and Piastri will be expected to support Norris. There is a chance to take a big step towards the Constructors’ Championship.
Red Bull are struggling and McLaren need to max out their points potential. They must not mess it up by crashing at the start. At least they are used to poor starts and know that they can recover it. Norris is getting a bit more used to life at the front and not panicking if the start goes wrong.
Norris Is Fav
Norris is the 1.57 favourite, Piastri 7.00 and it is hard to see past them. We have backed Leclerc e/w and from fourth place, he needs a lot of luck, but he is in the hunt for a podium.
This race looks like it could be a bit boring, but the start could change that, it almost needs to. If McLaren get away in the lead, there is little reason to think that they will not finish there.
If they have to make a comeback after a poor start, then we will have a better race, with likely the same result. When the other drivers are saying that the McLaren is in a different league, you know that they do not expect to beat them.
Podium Battle
The battle for the podium is a bit more interesting. Russell, Leclerc, Sainz and Hamilton will all fancy their chances and there is nothing between them pace wise. Will the Ferrari be able to show the same kind of robust race pace as last weekend? If so, I fancy Leclerc to pull it off. We are on him each way with the first three places counting and that is enough interest for me.
There will be the possibility of tyre degradation forcing some drivers to make a second stop. Pirelli are saying that it is marginal, given the high temperatures. One stopping is quicker and that plays into the hands of McLaren, but Mercedes and Ferrari should also be able to manage one. Those racing in dirty air are going to find it harder. Any sliding will hurt the tyres.
No Value
It is a struggle to see much in the way of value opportunities for the race. With the uncertainty over how the track resurfacing will affect the race, it is hard to get too heavily involved. The drama for me is how McLaren get on, and more to the point, how many points can they take off Red Bull’s lead.
They have left plenty of points on the floor in the first part of the season and they need to execute this race perfectly, try and get a 1-2 finish and hope that Red Bull’s woes continue. Norris has a chance to put a bit of dent in Verstappen’s lead and it is clear that Red Bull are unravelling.
We are on Hulkenberg to finish in the points and he has put himself very much in the picture, but with six eleventh placed finishes under his belt this season, it is no certainty. The car’s long run pace is usually decent and on Friday they were the fifth fastest and one tenth faster than Williams. Hulkenberg can be backed at 2.00 to beat Albon, but I do not want to double back him.
2024 Italian GP Raceday Side Markets
There are a few side markets with a bit more interest than the main markets.
Ladbrokes Group 4 Has Gasly and Stroll as joint favourites with Tsunoda and Ocon also in the group. Gasly starts fourteenth, Ocon fifteenth, Tsunoda sixteenth and Stroll seventeenth. Aston Martin had slightly better long run pace on Friday but Stroll has been struggling all weekend.
Gasly has had the better of his teammate in every session so far and he has beaten Ocon in five of the last eight races, despite a DNS and DNF. Tsunoda has been unhappy all weekend and his upgrade looks like a downgrade.
2024 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to win Group 4 @ 2.90 with Ladbrokes
The same firm have a couple of Alternative match bets of interest, both relating to Verstappen. The market is finding it hard to get to grips with the struggles at Red Bull. There is always a bit of a lag before the market catches up when a champion is in decline.
The car just isn’t performing here at all. It is lacking grip, suffering understeer and their fourth row lock out is not down to bad luck in running, it is where they are. He looks to be opposable.
Ladbrokes offer even money for Hamilton to beat him, and the same odds for Sainz to beat him. Hamilton made a mess of qualifying, the car is faster than his grid position suggests. He was fastest in FP2 and 3, comfortably faster than Verstappen.
Sainz has been a bit more up and down, but he starts two places ahead of Verstappen. I’ll take both to beat the struggling Red Bull.
