2024 Azerbaijan GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2024 Azerbaijan GP Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Azerbaijan GP outright betting preview. We had a very profitable race in Italy, fingers crossed for more of the same in Baku.
2024 Azerbaijan GP
The Italian GP produced another 12.20 point profit thanks to what was a bit of a surprise win for Charles Leclerc. I tipped him, so it wasn’t totally unexpected, but it was a race that McLaren should have won. It was Ferrari who gambled on a one stop strategy, while McLaren played it conservatively and went for two, despite their car being famously kind to its tyres.
That win means we are +60.98 points for the season to date. This weekend the action comes from a favourite venue of mine, the Baku street circuit in Azerbaijan.
Story Of The Season So Far
Before looking ahead to the weekend, it might be useful to try and look back on how this season has played out, and where it might be heading.
The season started out much as expected. Max Verstappen won four of the first five races, with just an unfortunate mechanical failure in Melbourne slowing him down. Sergio Perez had four podium finishes in the first five and Red Bull were in cruise mode.
Then we got to Miami and Lando Norris’ first F1 victory. That was a race where McLaren brought a significant upgrade, which like most of their upgrades in 2023, worked as well as expected. That was the first twist of the season.
We then had four races which saw Verstappen win three. Charles Leclerc was nice winner for us in Monaco, and at this stage we had three teams in the hunt for race wins. McLaren dropped the ball on several occasions and Ferrari couldn’t maintain their momentum.
Canada saw a pole for Mercedes and George Russell as that team started to unlock the pace of the car, having ditched the zero pod design.
Spanish GP
The Spanish GP saw Ferrari introduce a new floor which boosted their downforce, but a side effect was unwanted bouncing in high speed corners, making the car unpredictable and the drivers struggled. McLaren continued to be competitive everywhere, but not really making the most it.
It was now Mercedes’ turn to win, and they picked up three races, including a nice winner for us at Silverstone. Piastri won in Hungary and a McLaren 1-2 finish got them back on track and landed another nice winner for us.
While Mercedes and Ferrari were improving in fits and starts, McLaren sailed a steady course, leaving points on the table all too often. However, the real turning point was Red Bull’s dramatic loss of form. Gone was the ability to develop their car and keep the others at arm’s length.
Red Bull Go Backwards
They too had introduced an upgrade which did not work as expected and their performance went backwards. After the Spanish GP, Verstappen had 69 point lead over Norris, and Red Bull were 50 points clear of Ferrari.
The next six races saw no wins for Red Bull, just two second places. Perez’ form evaporated after Miami and the team’s lead after the Italian GP is down to 8 points, but now it is McLaren in second place.
Amazingly, Verstappen has managed to keep his lead in the Drivers’ Championship to 62 points ahead of Norris. That just shows how McLaren and Norris have not made the sort of impact they should have had on Verstappen’s lead.
Strategy Shortcomings
McLaren have not been sharp enough in terms of strategy and Norris has failed to capitalise on having the fastest car, converting just one of his four pole positions into a race win. He has lost the lead at the start in every pole position race he has had, and his World Drivers’ Championship chances look slim, despite odds of just 2.63.
The main hope for McLaren and Norris, is that they still have room for improvement. They are holding back on introducing a new floor as they want a little more time to evaluate it, and make sure when it does go on, it will be a step forward, and not a step backwards, as seen with Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari and Visa RB. They can’t hold it back for much longer, we are into the last third of the season, but maybe after Singapore they will unleash it.
We now enter the post-European stage of the season. Eight more races all over the globe, starting with this weekend’s race in Baku.
The 2024 Azerbaijan GP Track
When the layout for this circuit was announced, I was not optimistic. Another street circuit with lots of 90 degree corners and a straight so long that it looked silly. However, it has turned out some of the best, or at least most dramatic, races in recent years.
The long, 6km track features twenty corners, of which nine are short duration, 90 degree turns. The circuit is lined by barriers that are very close to the racing line, much like Monaco, but this is a much faster track, and while overtaking is hard, it is not impossible.
The first sector is made up of straights and four 90 degree turns. Sector two is a technical, twisty sector with eleven corners. The lap finishes with a flat out run through one 90 degree turn and four kinks down the long drag back to turn one.
Mistakes Can Be Costly
Any mistakes can be race ending and the attrition rate here runs at exactly four across the previous six races. Trying to get twenty cars through the first two or three corners at the start is very difficult and early retirements are common.
This track sees reverse gear being used more than any other. There are a few escape routes for drivers to bail out into if they are too fast going into a corner, and while the driver can reverse out, it can be a painfully slow process, which will mean a lot of lost time.
Late Drama
We have seen late drama in two of the races here. Bottas and Verstappen both suffered late race tyre failures which cost them certain wins. Hamilton and Perez ended up picking up the victories. We also saw Lance Stroll having a big crash after he too suffered a blow out. All three came on the long flat out sector and this is not a track where taking a chance on tyre wear is wise.
The pole sitter has only gone on to win two of the six races here.
There have been a few changes made, not really to the track itself, but some barriers have been moved back a little and there are a few more breaks in the barriers to allow for quicker removal of any cars that have stopped on the track. This may reduce the chance of a safety car deployment, or at the very least, shorten how long it is deployed for.
The Weather
Azerbaijan is known as the Land of Fire and Wind, and as the name suggests, Baku is a windy venue. The gaps between the blocks of buildings act as wind tunnels which can unsettle the car, but that is the norm here.
The weather forecast looks very straightforward for this weekend. Warm, sunny and if anything, not that breezy. Race day will be a little cooler at 26 degrees, with Friday and Saturday nearer 30. Plenty of time to fine tune the cars set up in stable conditions and there can be no excuses weather wise.
2024 Azerbaijan GP: Team-by-Team
Red Bull
Still clinging on to the lead in both championships, but surely, they have given up on the Constructors’. They no longer understand their car and how to develop it. Understeer has been a big problem and that is the one thing that stops Verstappen in his tracks.
The last six races have seen Verstappen outqualified by Norris four times and his average qualifying position is now 3.00. His average finishing position is just 4.17. It is in the races were things get harder for Red Bull.
Verstappen can still bang in a quick lap, but the team have been forced to run more rear wing than is ideal, and that is causing the front end to start to slide and understeer. The front tyres degrade and as the stint goes on, the harder it gets to drive.
Perez Likes Baku
Sergio Perez actually has a better track record here than Verstappen. The Mexican has two wins and three other podium finishes (he also won the Sprint race here last year). Verstappen has just the one win and one other podium.
Perez was flattered when he picked up a win when Verstappen suffered a late blow out in 2021, but his record still stands up well at this track. Either that, or Verstappen doesn’t go well here. The Dutchman has said that he is not the biggest fan of street circuits.
The Red Bull has not been comfortable on bumpy tracks this season, so Baku and Singapore do not look like ideal venues to stage a return to form. Singapore will be a much bigger challenge in terms of the bumpy track, but street circuits are never the smoothest of tracks.
McLaren
It was another race win that got away from McLaren in Italy. A front row lockout, but just a 2-3 finish. For once, both cars got through the first corner in their grid positions, but Piastri then threw an overtake on Norris in the second chicane to take the lead.
Both drivers decided that a two stop strategy was the way to go, and they lost out to a one stopping Charles Leclerc. It was another misstep by the strategists. The time lost for a pitstop at Imola is longer than any other track and the reward for a one stop is big.
The car remains the best all-rounder. It is the best qualifier and the best race car. Race execution by both team and drivers has been the weakness. Norris has had four GPs here and always finished in the points, so he knows his way round.
Piastri Consistent
Piastri has been the most consistent driver across the last six races, with an average finishing position of 2.67. Even taking out Norris’ 20th place in Austria, Piastri still edges Norris 2.67 to 3.00 in the races.
The team has one driver, Piastri who is not so good in qualifying, and one, Norris, who is not so good in the races. It must be galling for Norris to be 13-3 against Piastri in qualifying, but only 10-6 in the races.
It also looks like Piastri is getting better. The Aussie is under no real pressure, he is not in the championship battle, and he may be keen to lay down a marker for the future by beating his teammate. There is talk of team orders coming into play but the team may be too late reaching that conclusion.
Ferrari
It has been a strange season for Ferrari. Their car has rarely been the best, with the exception of Monaco, but it can have its moments. They have three wins, including Leclerc’s home race and now, the team’s home race. They also won in Melbourne, so when the track starts with an M, Ferrari have won it. Get them pencilled in for Mexico City?
Can they finish with a flourish? They are only 31 points behind McLaren and 39 behind Red Bull, so we now have a proper three team race for the Constructors’ Championship.
Ferrari went into the summer break saying that they would have three strong races in the second part of the season. Monza, Baku and Singapore. They have won the first and now come to the second, and one that looks better suited to their car than Monza was. They won that race on strategy, but, like Monaco, they could win this on pure pace.
Short Duration Corners Suit
Their drivers do not have great race records here. Leclerc has one podium finish, and Sainz a couple of fifth places, but they were very strong in Monaco and their car has been strong where there are a lot of short duration corners.
Charles Leclerc got pole position for the Sprint race here last year, but last year’s tyre eating characteristics saw him lose out to Perez in the race itself. When it comes to qualifying, Leclerc has been the fastest qualifier here for the last three years and had that sprint pole here as well.
His only proper pole in 2024 came at Monaco and he must have strong claims again this weekend, even if the Ferrari is a stronger race car than qualifier.
The upgrades they put on the car for the Italian GP did seem to solve their bouncing problem in the higher speed corners, but that was never going to be a big problem here anyway. Leclerc is on a roll, landing three podiums in a row, including a win. Sainz keeps on grinding out top six finishes (fourteen from his fifteen race starts), but he just lacks that extra turn of speed that Leclerc has.
Mercedes
Their golden run of three race wins from four between the Austrian and Belgian races has come to just as sudden a stop. From having everything sorted, to two races with a best finish of 5th place. It would seem that the car’s ‘diva’ nature is still there.
This is a track on which Mercedes have not dominated in the same way as they did at most tracks when at the peak of their powers. Rosberg won the European GP here in 2016, Hamilton won in 2018 and Bottas in 2019, but of the seven races here, Red Bull have won four.
Hamilton inherited his sole win here when Bottas suffered a late tyre blow out when leading. It would seem to be one of Hamilton’s weakest tracks. He has only beaten a teammate once here, in last year’s race were Russell only qualified 11th. Russell beat Hamilton in the Sprint race.
It is hard to predict what Mercedes will do from one week to another, but they seem to have lost that mojo they had a few weeks ago. On a track which has not been great for them in the past, maybe this will be another struggle.
Aston Martin
Confirmed that they have signed Adrian Newey for 2025 onwards. They have the final piece of the jigsaw. Everything is in place for the master plan of making Lance Stroll world champion by 2029.
That is not going to do anything for their chances this weekend. They did have a double points finish here last year. That was when this was the fourth race on the calendar, and Aston Martin had started the season as the second best team, so it was a relatively poor race for them, at the time.
This year’s car has never been very competitive, their upgrades have not worked and they have not finished better than seventh in the last seven races. More recently, they are struggling to finish better than tenth. Both drivers have fairly decent records here, but the car bombed in Monaco, so it may not enjoy the twisty middle sector.
Visa RB
Much like Aston Martin, Visa RB are struggling to make it into the top 10 on racedays. Their last upgrade didn’t work as expected and without Russell’s disqualification at Spa, they would have been pointless in the last three races.
The team will continue to evaluate the new floor but this is the team’s second upgrade which has not worked as expected, so it may take more than a couple of weeks back at the factory to get to the bottom of the problems.
What is working on the simulator, is not working on the car, in much the same way as their parent team, Red Bull, are having problems with their upgrades. The closer ties between the two teams can be a two edged sword, it would seem.
Haas
Another team who can score the odd point here and there, but their season’s low point was Monaco where they were disqualified from qualifying for a technical rules breach and both were taken out on the first lap when Magnussen collided with Perez and Hulkenberg was collateral damage from that incident.
Magnussen will not be racing this weekend, having exceeded the number of penalty points required to trigger a race ban. Hulkenberg has raced here five times, with a best placed finish of ninth, his only top 10.
Oliver Bearman takes over Magnussen’s seat for the weekend. He was 7th for Ferrari when he stood in for Carlos Sainz in Saudi Arabia, but this will be a more challenging task.
Alpine
Like all of the ‘second division’ teams, Alpine are occasional visitors to the minor points (six of the last nine races). They could do so again, having qualified 10th and 11th in Monaco and Gasly finished 10th, despite being hit by his teammate. When considering Alpine, it is better to wait and see how they go on Friday.
Williams
Finally got a significant upgrade two races ago. Albon has qualified 8th and 9th since the upgrade and finished 9th in Italy. The team finally sacked Logan Sargeant and his replacement in Italy, Franco Colapinto, finished 12th. He is clearly a significant improvement over Sargeant.
It is not inconceivable, indeed it may be likely, that they could see a double points finish before the end of the season. Unfortunately, Colapinto has never raced here before and this is a much more difficult track to master than Monza.
The Monza upgrade saw a new floor and side pods, and a redesigned roll hoop which was another weight saving modification. The car is now finally, nearly bang on the minimum weight limit of 798kg. Their redesigned side pods are designed to improve downforce at the front of the car. That helps the front tyres to get more grip, even at slow speeds. Handy for street circuits? It should help. The team will have a second upgrade at Singapore
Sauber
In a class of their own, but not a class anyone wants to be in. They are getting worse, if anything.
2024 Azerbaijan GP: Summary
This looks like a race where we should see Ferrari coming to the fore. McLaren are always thereabouts and both Red Bull and Mercedes are likely to be off the pace again.
We have had a two week break for the teams to work on their cars. Many are fault finding, trying to understand why upgrades have not worked. McLaren, and to a lesser degree Ferrari, are on the front foot, and working on improvements rather than working backwards to find where things went wrong.
We cannot rule out the possibility that Red Bull and Mercedes have used that time to improve performance, but I know which teams I’d rather be with.
Ante Post Selections
It is hard to resist a bet on Charles Leclerc for both fastest qualifier and race winner. The car should be well suited to the track and the whole team’s tails are up after winning their home race. This is a race they were targeting as a realistic win chance and Leclerc can really monster his car around this track.
He is in very good form, with finishes of 3/3/1 in the last three races and while his best race result here was third last year, this year’s Ferrari is a much better car over a race distance. The team are talking down their chances for the 2024 Azerbaijan GP, but they are likely just trying to dampen expectations after the big home race win.
2024 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 4.50 generally available
This year’s Ferrari is designed to be a stronger race car than qualifier, and as such, I am happy to have a larger stake for Sunday than in qualifying. That said, on a street circuit with short duration corners which rewards Ferrari’s great acceleration out of them, Leclerc should have a better than usual chance in qualifying.
2024 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 2 points e/w Charles Leclerc to win @ 6.00 with Boylesports, Betfair, BET365 (e/w 1/5 the odds 1-3)
Another team that is finally making a more significant move forward is Williams. They have got the weight of their car right down and have started to introduce aerodynamic improvements.
Alex Albon has made Q3 in the two races since the upgrade was introduced and with the likes of Aston Martin, Visa RB and Alpine all struggling for form, it is not wildly optimistic to think that Williams may come here with the fifth fastest car.
With the high attrition rate around here, there could be more opportunity than usual for the ‘lesser’ teams to pick up points and Albon looks best placed to do so. He is yet to score here but has finished top twelve in all three visits.
2024 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point Albon to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Betfred
The final bet is for George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton. This is not a track where Hamilton has enjoyed much success, by his standards, and his record against teammates is poor.
In the seven races here, he is 2-5 vs. his teammates and but for a late race puncture for Bottas in 2018, it would have been 1-6. He also lost out to George Russell in the 2023 sprint race.
