2024 Azerbaijan GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Azerbaijan GP qualifying preview. If you fancy having an outright bet, get free tips here.

2024 Azerbaijan GP Qualifying

It is clear we have a four team fight for pole position, and even Sergio Perez is right in the frame. So far, we have had Verstappen fastest in FP1, Leclerc in FP2 and Russell in FP3. If we had an FP4, it probably would have been a McLaren. Nobody has got a firm grip on this weekend so far, and whoever ends up on pole will not be home and hosed either.

The most consistent performer has been Leclerc. Yes, he stuffed it in the wall in FP1, but at least he was going fast when he did. In FP2 he had another car problem which cost him track time. He still set the fastest time, but it was by a tiny margin and he set it late in the session, so it was hard to compare it directly with the other who had set their flying laps 15 minutes earlier.

Leclerc was second in FP3, having been pipped by just 0.013 seconds by George Russell. Carlos Sainz in the second Ferrari has been the only one of the eight drivers in the fast cars who really hasn’t looked on it so far. He has been a steady top 6 all weekend, but never been at the sharp end.

Fast On Friday

Red Bull were fast on Friday, and it was Perez who was the faster of the two. Verstappen has always struggled here compared to Perez and while he was faster in FP3, Perez was a bit unlucky with traffic. It is conceivable that Perez could finally outqualify Verstappen for the first time in 2024.

The team have set their car up with a fair amount of downforce. They are fastest in S2, the old, twisty part of the lap, but handing time back down the straight. This is to help reduce tyre degradation in the race tomorrow, but that seems a little strange to me. This is a low degradation track, so why so worried about it?

If anything, Red Bull may be one of the contenders who are making getting pole hard for themselves, but fair enough, the points come on Sunday. They will certainly need to make sure they get a tow down the final straight otherwise they could find themselves on the third row.

McLaren Got It Together

McLaren finally got it all strung together in FP3, having looked a bit so-so on Friday. Their car looks solid in all sectors, much like the Ferrari, and those two teams look in good shape for both qualifying and the race. They haven’t been fastest in any session so far, and Norris was 0.22 off Rusell’s time earlier, Piastri 0.23. Not a lot on a long lap, but it does suggest that they are a little slower than Leclerc in the Ferrari.

Mercedes have been their usual confusing selves. Seemingly always quick on Fridays, Hamilton was 2nd and 3rd in FP1 and FP2. Russell had a Friday to forget, with a power unit change keeping him in the garage for a long time and then another problem with his car at the end of FP2 which meant his session finished early.

He was complaining about his car in FP3, the braking was a problem and the handling off, and then boom, he goes fastest out of the blue. Did he just hit the car’s sweet spot on that lap?

Hamilton ended up back in tenth, having been really happy with the car yesterday. Judging by their speed down the straight, Mercedes look to have opted for a lower downforce set up. That will make the car a bit on edge, so the drivers will have to be inch perfect, but it is a track where the driver can make a difference.

Overtaking Possible

The battle for pole this afternoon is actually not that important. This is a track where overtaking is relatively easy and safety cars mix up the order. What it does do, is to make life easier at the start. The first lap here is dangerous. Collisions are common and a driver’s race can be over very easily early on. Just getting it round the first lap unscathed is a result.

It may not even be the fastest car that ends up on pole, such is the importance of the tow down the long final straight. It is worth at least two tenths and with the margins so small between the top teams, if you don’t get a tow, you’re not getting pole.

Things are complicated further by the possibility, or indeed near certainty, of yellow flags being thrown during the qualifying sessions. We have seen plenty, and even a lot of red flags. If a car stops on track, if a driver goes down an escape road, or hits a wall. The flags come out.

If you are on a flying lap and a yellow goes out, the lap is gone. It is a high stress session for the pit wall, and they have a hard job to try and get their driver in just the right place at just the right time, and then hope that there are no flags.

As such, I do not recommend this session as a good one for betting on, unless the odds make the extra risk worth it.

We have a modest bet on Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier at 4.50 and the market has finally caught up and he is the 2.75 favourite now. I am happy to stick on that bet.

2024 Azerbaijan GP Qualifying Match Bets

I am prepared to split a point on two match bets at big odds.

2024 Azerbaijan GP qualifying tip: 0.5 point Sergio Perez to outqualify Max Verstappen @ 4.75 with ladbrokes

Normally putting up this bet would suggest I had been on the glue, but on this track, it is a live chance. If they made the World Championship twenty four races around the Baku circuit, Perez would be champion. He loves it and goes really well. Verstappen is not so keen on street circuits in general, and this is one he does seem to struggle on to a degree. The odds are big enough to ask the question.

2024 Azerbaijan GP qualifying Tip: 0.5 Colapinto to outqualify Alex Albon @ 4.10 with unibet

A speculative bet on the rookie who has never previously driven here, in just his second F1 race. It sounds mad, and it may well be, but he is keeping Albon honest. Just one place behind in all three sessions and just 0.044 slower in FP3. He is a lot closer than the odds suggest.

-JamesPunt